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This is . . . something:

A quirk in federal tax law may be incentivizing wealthy people who want to avoid paying taxes to simply not file their returns. That’s because it’s a felony to file false tax returns but only a misdemeanor not to file a return at all.

And due to limited IRS and Department of Justice resources to pursue misdemeanor violations, a person who does not file a return is unlikely to face prosecution. As a result, many millionaires could simply be taking their chances, betting that they will face few consequences for not filing their tax returns.

In early 2024, the IRS began an effort to contact people it calls “high income non-filers” and urge them to file returns to the tax agency.... Notices were mailed in February in 125,000 cases targeting wealthy taxpayers who had not filed tax returns since 2017.

I wonder if this trick works for non-millionaires? I'm asking for a friend. And I'll bet it will get easier pretty soon as Donald Trump and his handpicked IRS commissioner ease up on those pesky new Democratic rules aimed at collecting more unpaid taxes from the rich. They'll probably reallocate the agents to go after people who cheat the feds out of $50 on their EITC returns. Those folks really piss me off.

Also, it sure seems like someone should have told Hunter Biden about this. If he had just stonewalled on filing his 2018 return, like he did for 2017, the case against him would have been entirely misdemeanors.

Wait a second:

Originally Musk was said to have laid off 80% of Twitter. Now it's 90%? Before long the legend will be Elon firing 100% of the staff and heroically recoding the entire platform himself in a single Red Bull-fueled night.

But even the 80% number doesn't really count if you then hire a whole bunch of people back—which Elon did. In the end, he let go about 60% of the staff.

Which is still kind of amazing. I really do wish we could learn more about precisely how this was done. But in any case, there's no need to exaggerate or rely on outdated figures. In December 2024, the correct number is about 60%.

Hmmm:

There's some evidence that movie runtimes have crept up in recent years, but it's all a little iffy. I prefer the data nerd approach taken by Przemysław Jarząbek, who wrote a script to extract all the films from IMDb and plot them by average length each year. Here it is:

This is pretty steady through 2010, then rises about six minutes through 2018. The Economist did a similar calculation and reckons that movie lengths were steady through 2015 but have increased about 14 minutes since then.

So . . . everybody is right. Runtimes of popular movies have gone up recently, but only by perhaps ten or a dozen minutes. Quit yer griping.

Anyway, it's probably our own fault, thanks to our endless appetite for "director's cut" versions of movies, which have probably convinced studios that we'd all like to see a little less footage left on the cutting room floor. Alternatively, maybe it's the effect of less lead poisoning among children. Or the influence of social media on teens. Or greater political polarization. Or any other trend you feel like making a case for. Nominees?

I don't really know what this is. I mean, it's a stream flowing down from Mount Baldy alongside Mount Baldy Road, but I don't what it's called—or even if it has a name. It must, right? But I can't find it on a map. Can any SoCal locals help out?

January 19, 2023 — Mount Baldy, California

The Census Bureau revealed today the latest sales figures for manufactured homes, which were up 0% from the previous month. Boring. But the trend over the past 65 years is kind of fascinating:

Mobile home sales surged in the '60s and then collapsed utterly in the space of two years from 1973-74. What the hell happened? In any case, sales puttered along for a couple of decades and then, again, completely collapsed over the space of two years from 1999-2000.

That's a helluva market to be part of. There's got to something that caused the two collapses, but I can't think of what they could be.

POSTSCRIPT: A detailed discussion is here, but doesn't really come to any conclusions. Sales of new homes dropped across the board in 1973, but not by nearly as much as mobile homes—and they recovered pretty quickly. It's a mystery.

From the New York Times this morning:

This is pretty disturbing. Are we really at the point in our Trumpesque anti-establishment fervor that we celebrate the deliberate murder of corporate executives we dislike? The story continues with this:

The dark commentary after the death of Mr. Thompson, a 50-year-old insurance executive from Maple Grove, Minn., who was also a husband and a father of two children, highlighted the anger and frustration over the state of health care in America, where those with private insurance often find themselves in Kafka-esque tangles while seeking reimbursement for medical treatment and are often denied.

Now I'm curious. It's certainly true that insurance companies deny a lot of claims, but that's always been true. Or has it? Here are the results of Experian's latest survey of providers (i.e., doctors):

"Claim denials are increasing" is way up from 2022. I can't find any long-term data about this, but perhaps claim denial and Kafka-esque tangles with insurers really are up a lot over the past decade. Health insurers are certainly performing well for some reason—even better than the red-hot S&P 500:

Politically, the big reason liberals have never been able to sell universal health care is that people are satisfied with their insurance and don't want the government to take it away. And obviously this is all a moot point for the next four years. But after that, if insurers keep getting greedier and greedier, I wonder if the tide has finally turned?

Here's the latest on the lead front:

We estimate that by 2015, the US population had gained 602-million General Psychopathology factor points because of exposure arising from leaded gasoline, reflecting a 0.13-standard-deviation increase in overall liability to mental illness in the population and an estimated 151 million excess mental disorders attributable to lead exposure.

As near as I can tell from just the abstract, this is a bit of a toy study. The authors just run a regression of nationwide lead levels vs. nationwide mental disorders and find an association. That really doesn't tell you much.

But it at least suggests a path for future studies to see if this is for real. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it is.

Email from a friend:

So one month out, I'm a bit surprised at how little I care about anything Trump-related. Usually, political obsessiveness, work avoidance techniques, etc. kick in after a couple of weeks of post-election frustration, but honestly, I legitimately have no interest in what this person does or says. Doesn't mean I don't think any of it will be terrible. I'm sure it will be. But that's been well covered in the media and this is who the public chose.

Curious if this is a just me or if there is a notable fall in media consumption on political issues.

I'm not quite so far gone, but I get this. We've already seen The Trump Show and now we're getting The Trump Show Part II, this time with even more murder and mayhem! It's like one of those shows where they don't really know what to do with season 2, so they just amp up the CGI and the fight scenes and call it a day.

Even now, it's impossible to tell what Trump is serious about—if anything. Make America healthy again! Tariffs on Canada and Mexico! Don't mess with the US dollar! Declare Democrats illegal on Day One! I mean, check this out:

Come on. Are we really planning to do this for every dumb Trump outburst? Can RFK Jr. break Trump's Big Mac habit? Will maple syrup prices soar if Trump puts tariffs on Canada? What happens if Brazil buys oil in rubles? Would a one-party state really be so bad?

Christ. Maybe I don't care after all if this what the news is going to look like for the next four years.

With most of the vote now counted, the big picture of the election has come into focus. If 2% of the electorate had switched their votes, Democrats would control the House of Representatives and Kamala Harris would be president. Democrats still would have lost control of the Senate, thanks to a horrible map, but by slightly less.

So that's that. The Republican trifecta hinged on 2% of the vote. It's really hard to draw any sweeping conclusions from that.

Tennessee passed a law last year that bans trans kids from receiving medical treatments such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy if those treatments are prescribed to help them transition. Today the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether the law is constitutional. Ian Millhiser explains that the legal question at issue is whether the law discriminates based on sex:

While Matthew Rice, the Tennessee solicitor general defending his state’s law, tried many times to deny that this law classifies based on sex, he eventually admitted that it did after being pressed by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Jackson.

Jackson, for example, asked Rice whether this law would permit a boy who seeks testosterone because he wants to deepen his voice and otherwise enhance his masculinity to receive that treatment, and Rice eventually conceded that, under the specific law at issue in this case, the boy could. Rice then eventually admitted that, if a girl sought the same treatment for the same purpose — to deepen her voice and to make her body appear more masculine — Tennessee’s law would prohibit her from receiving the treatment.

This matters because, in United States v. Virginia (1996), the Supreme Court held that “all gender-based classifications” are subject to “heightened scrutiny,” meaning that the law is treated as presumptively unconstitutional and the state has to prove that its law was not enacted for impermissibly sexist reasons.

It appears likely that this case will split almost perfectly along partisan lines. The three liberals all said that sex discrimination is sex discrimination and it's illegal. Five (and maybe all six) of the conservative justices spent their time casting around for why this should be an exception, eventually landing on the idea that medical procedures are different and judges shouldn't presume to stick their noses in.

That's the most dismal thing about this case: that it's so nakedly partisan. The principle at hand—is this sex discrimination?—is in no way either liberal or conservative. On the one hand, you could legitimately argue that the hypothetical sex discrimination in this case is minuscule and shouldn't stand in the way of the state's interest in protecting minors—regardless of whether you agree with the state. But you could also legitimately argue that, as with freedom of speech, even small violations need to be rigorously pushed back.

But because the case happens to be about trans rights, everyone finds a way to make a technical question into a partisan one. Does anyone believe, for example, that if this were a law banning the removal of tonsils in girls the justices would line up the same way?

Now, I'd add that the conservative stand in this case displays a lot of chutzpah coming from a group of justices who recently overturned Chevron on the grounds that judges are perfectly capable of evaluating highly technical issues and shouldn't have to defer to anyone's expert judgment. But that's now inconvenient, so presumably we'll end up with some kind of doctor exception where judges should defer.

The Supreme Court has always been political, but has it ever been so nakedly political? In boring regulatory or tax cases the justices still cross party lines just fine. But in hot button culture war cases, you have to know little except whether the president who appointed them had a D or an R next to his name. They barely even bother trying to hide it.