Speaking of elections, here's the latest poll from CBS News:
This is only one poll and they don't tell us which states count as battlegrounds. Still, it's the first time I've seen Biden ahead of Trump in any grouping of battlegrounds. Seems like promising news.
I've been watching 538 (now on ABC News) closely for a while. Key on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two things going on. First, the most recent polls are showing essentially ties within the error bars, representing a bump up for Biden. Second, polls are now switching more toward likely voter screens, in which Biden does better. Also, FWIW, if Kennedy is included, often he draws more from Trump.
It's a trend, though at the very margin now. The question in my mind is, how brittle will Trump's campaign be when stressed? All campaigns go through up and down cycles. The down times really test the mettle and experience of the campaign management.
From comment I've been seeing, the very top level of trump's campaign staff is considered very professional-- LaCivita and another. How much money they'll have can't be clear yet (what's left after trump's lawyers get paid?) and they won't have any help from the RNC beyond more money for the lawyers. OTOH they have active volunteer MAGA networks in churches and other semi-visible institutions, plus of course the Mighty Wurlitzer, aka RW Noise Machine. And probably PACs and dark money.
In terms of brittleness the campaign apparatus is a question, but to me their biggest source of worry has to be the candidate himself. He's not exactly a stable guy. So how will he react to bad news and mounting pressure? Complete decompensation melt-down on live TV would be the dream scenario. Not to be counted on, but hey, everybody's got to have a dream.
I'm having that exact dream. Either a complete meltdown or a stroke, though they would be hard to tell apart.
How much money they'll have can't be clear yet (what's left after trump's lawyers get paid?) and they won't have any help from the RNC beyond more money for the lawyers.
I believe there will be ample independent expenditures on Trump's behalf. He'll also have China and Russia working social media for him.
Shifts of a point or two here or there MAY be occurring, and right now it appears the election will be decided by such margins, but when considering poll results you can't assume they're anything more than statistical noise, plus probably some effects due to changes in sampling plans (eg "likely" vs "registered" voters).
The only clear message here is that neither side should feel at all complacent.
This poll, BTW, was registered voters and didn't have a cross tab for likely. I thought that was weird.
If Biden only wins the popular vote by 1 point, he is not going to win enough swing states. He won't have enough momentum.
Still, I wonder how many swing states Biden must win to beat Trump. Surely this is gamed out somewhere, with assumptions about what happens in non-swing states.
play away:
https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president/
I have seen a computation that says he needs to win everything he carried by at least 5 points last time plus MiWiPa and Omaha (NE-2) or another state. I'm surprised to see Minnesota in the "toss-up" category, but Trump is working there so there must be something to it.
I'm surprised to see Minnesota in the "toss-up" category, but Trump is working there so there must be something to it.
Minnesota has been fairly "swingy" the last several cycles. There are a lot of hard core evangelical MAGAts outside the Twin cities. No, they're not the bulk of the MN electorate, but if they make rural areas go 65-35 Trump, they don''t need to do all that well in the urban areas.
I think the Trump campaign is also counting on the large number of Muslims in the Twin Cities to vote third party or not show up. We'll have to see how much Omar campaigns for Biden and what reporting in places like the Sahan Journal looks like.
The weighting was 33.0% registered Democrats / 32.2% Independents / 34.8% Republicans. Since they didn't break down the leaners we have no idea how conservative their polling leaned.
The margin of error is listed as +/-3.8% for both registered voters and likely voters. Curious, since they're not the same sample size.
90% of registered Republicans said they would vote. Ha. Since 1900 the highest turnout for an election was 66% of registered voters.
Stop paying attention to the polls.
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"Independents" almost always lean Republican, so w/o the "lean Dem" or "lean Rep" cross-tab, that's huge red flag. And I agree that someone telling you they'll "definitely" vote -- as opposed to actually looking at past behavior -- is no way to identify a "likely" voter.
Under this poll Biden would be elected president with Trump getting more votes. Now that would be ironic. But that is not going to happen. Here is a prediction: Trump will get 46% (same as last two elections). And as I have posted before, it all comes down to WI, MI and PA. In this sense, this poll is encouraging.
Biden would be elected president with Trump getting more votes. Now that would be ironic. But that is not going to happen.
Probably not. But some of the analysis I've seen suggests that the drift of the electorate now means that Biden is about as likely as Trump to win the EC while losing the popular vote. I think it's because greater MAGA strength among non-white working class voters might help the GOP trim Dem margins in blue strongholds like Illinois, NY and California—padding Trump's popular vote totals but not by near enough to flip any of those blue states.
It's hard not to emphasize every day how a vote for Trump indicates mental illness, criminality or treason, and often all three.
There are three national polls out since the kangaroo court verdict:
Emerson Trump +6
The Economist tie
Yahoo News Trump +1
------------------------------------
Trump + 2.3 which is the same as the past two months.
I still think there is only a 50% chance Biden will be on the ballot six months from now as his dementia becomes even more obvious. The only Democrat that could be pretty sure to beat Trump is Michelle Obama.
I still think there is only a 50% chance Trump will be on the ballot six months from now as his dementia becomes even more obvious.
FIFY
Don't feed the troll, please.
Trump looks eerily similar to Joe Pesci in that photo—the deranged “I may shoot you for the hell of it” Joe Pesci.
The states they say they oversampled in, which I guess must be the states they consider battleground states, are Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
This is good news, but it's always good to remember that if things don't go his way, Biden can always call on his supporters to go to the Capitol and make sure that the wrong man isn't made president! /s
I think it bears repeating that Donald Trump is basically a less intelligent and less mentally stable version of Adolph Hitler. And he must be opposed as such. He’s already made it clear that he intends to intern millions of Latinos but it’s extremely unlikely that he will stop there;political enemies, Jews, homosexuals and transgender individuals, and perhaps Catholics, will eventually find themselves in the camps.
A vote for Trump is a vote to put him and the many actual Nazi who surround him in power. Germany’s past is our future.
It may be wishful thinking, but I think very few undecided voters will break for Trump. If he doesn't have them now, what can he say to convince them he is anothing other than what he is: a narcissistic felon credibly accused of sexual assault who is proud of the Dobbs decision. Not very appealing to anyone not already enthralled with him.
Biden, on the other hand, has a great message of accomplishment and empathy that will eventually cut through the noise to reach those on the fence.
One of the guys I've been reading on Substack is Simon Rosenberg. Thats one of his main points, that once you start screening for LV there is a pretty consistent shift away from Trump. People just cant seem to pull the lever for a rapist/felon/shitbag, etc. He consistently called bullshit on the "Red Wave" as well.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/
I hope thats the case, guess we will see.
And with the margin of error at 3.8% per D_Ohrk_E1, something in any other context you would have called a tie. But here you are calling a Florida…
If polls this far out showing Trump ahead are meaningless, then so are polls this far out showing Biden ahead. Willingness to abide a lack of consistency is what gave us MAGA.