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Chart of the day: Conservatives and COVID-19

During the COVID-19 pandemic I've been sort of a middling defender of the CDC and the American public health community in general. Details aside, I've always figured that if they were really all that bad then the US should be doing a lot worse than our peer countries in Europe. But that hasn't really been the case. We've done better than some and worse than some, but the difference hasn't been huge.

Except during two periods: the summer of 2020 and right now:

During the periods when the politicians stayed out of things, we did OK. The only times we were noticeably worse than our peers were, first, when Donald Trump decided to declare the pandemic over just because he felt like it, and second, during the current period when Fox News and its comrades have been trashing vaccines and masks.

The American public health community may or may not have big problems, but it sure seems as if they did a decent job as long as they were left to run things. It's only been when right-wing politicos have gotten involved that the pandemic has surged out of control. I wish I could say there's a lesson learned there, but obviously there hasn't been.

52 thoughts on “Chart of the day: Conservatives and COVID-19

  1. golack

    Well, the outbreaks did get people to get vaccinated....
    With other wealthy nations, there was a drop in deaths per infection, mainly due to vaccinations, for this latest round. We haven't really seen that here.

  2. Justin

    These holdouts in the US are a lost cause. Avoid them like the literal plague they are. One 20 something guy I work with occasionally has refused to get vaccinated and so we'll see what happens to him in a few weeks when my employer's mandate goes into effect. I haven't asked him why he's refused even though he has mentioned his pending termination twice now. It's like he's bragging about taking a stand. I really don't care about his excuse. One of my other co-workers could not get the vaccine due to serious allergic reactions and ended up in hospital for a few days with COVID. Thankfully, they came back to work this week. I have no use for this dumb ass kid and his excuses. And I hope they let him go.

  3. D_Ohrk_E1

    Speaking of conservatives, DC had some words in MJ about Joe Manchin, and I can't accept your advice two days ago about not upsetting him, given the stupid amount of leverage he has over the party.

    Biden is being too generous and supportive of Manchin. His value as a Democrat is very close to zero. That is to say, there is little difference between the ways he can sabotage the Democratic Party -- as soon as you've figured that out, his value as a Democrat is reduced to nearly zero. He might even be worth more to Democrats as an Independent.

    1. jeff-fisher

      Manchin had been a senator a long time. I'm willing to accept that the rest of the D senators have a pretty good handle on what he will do and get to a deal there eventually.

      It's Sinema who worries me. She's new and acting weird.

      1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

        Weird is her thing.

        I think she's as likely to realign as a Green (in her own caucus) as she is to go straightup Independent (caucusing still with the Democrat Party), straightup Independent (caucusing with the GQP), straightup Independent (in her own one woman caucus), or GQP.

    2. Mitch Guthman

      I agree. I don’t think Manchin can survive as an independent. He’s always done well as a Democrat because he basically gets a pass on everything because he’s the only “Democrat” who can win in WV. So he can basically run as far right as he wants because his left wing makes no demands. Between people personally loyal to him, tepid Republican opposition, bleeding off moderate Republicans, and strong Democratic support he can win, albeit narrowly.

      But as an independent, a significant amount of that support would disappear. Once his cachet as a saboteur of the Democratic agenda is gone, the Republicans will want the seat for themselves and will run against him with real seriousness. But, at the same time, he will surely be an outcast as far as the Democrats are concerned.

      What’s more, having Manchin to run against (rather than protect) would open up significant possibilities for the Democratic Party. One reason why Manchin is insulated from attacks on his votes denying West Virginians all kinds of goodies is that Republicans are wary of highlighting the unpopularity of those positions and he’s not going to be attacked from the left because he’s supposedly the best the Democratic Party can hope for. But, as an independent, Manchin could be attacked for all of his votes against things that are actually very popular in WV.

      Bottom line: I don’t think Manchin can survive as an independent and probably not even as a notational Republican because he needs solid Democratic support to win. Schumer probably has considerable leverage, if he wants it, by threatening to kick Manchin out of the party and strip him of the committee assignments that have help to make him a rich man who is living on a yacht.

  4. haddockbranzini

    I'm not buying it. The conservative messaging machine has been pretty consistent since day one. It not like they just peddled the crazy twice.

    1. mostlystenographicmedia

      The conservative messaging machine has been pretty consistent since day one.

      Meh. Firstly, conservative media took its cues from Trump (who is not a pillar of consistency), but true, they did land on his laissez faire approach rather early on. However the tone really did change both last spring and this summer. Trump’s open-up antics, LIBERATE ___state___!!! which were an outgrowth of his growing electoral desperation fueled a small but highly vocal rightwing backlash which caught fire on the political right. Then again this summer, there has been a noticeable uptick, as an organized resurgence to politicize school boards, masks, and vaccine mandates has rallied the Trump base.

      Don’t remember which, but some Republican advisory group actually encouraged the GOP this summer to make anti-mask/anti-vaccine the party rallying cry for 2022. The shit ebbs and flows as the needs of the conservative elite dictate.

    2. Jerry O'Brien

      Agree. I think there are plausible nonpolitical explanations for wave timing differnces between Europe and North America.

  5. Jasper_in_Boston

    Kevin's 100% correct, if one is judging by the standards of the generally mediocre/poor response of most Western countries. If Trump and Murdoch had butted out and simply let the professionals do their jobs, clearly many thousands of US covid deaths would have been prevented. Our numbers still wouldn't have been New Zealandeque, but they'd look significantly better.

    1. DFPaul

      Yep. It’s really a kind of death cult. I trace it back to the invention of birth control. For a suburban kid like me science is cool stuff like NASA and a phone in my pocket with access to all the information in the world. For a guy in rural Alabama, it’s nerds in a university science department claiming to be just “learning” in a neutral way, but the result is women can say “no” and their whole world is overturned.

    2. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      & El Jefe prolly would have been reelected, had he actually managed the Plandemic closer to how Obama survived the Swine Flu Massacre & Ebola Decimation.

    3. Special Newb

      New Zealand is an island and so much MUCH easier to deal with. And Adern recently gave up the 0 virus strategy there.

      1. KenSchulz

        Being an island had almost nothing to do with it. It was specific policies that New Zealand was prepared and willing to impose. Other nations in the Asia/Pacific region acted similarly and had far fewer cases and deaths than Europe and the Americas. The relative successes include Vietnam, which has a long land border with China.

        Last I looked, there was no land connection between the US and Asia or Europe. Covid-19 was brought to the US by air travelers.

  6. JimFive

    The second bump corresponds with schools fully reopening as well. Even if the kids themselves are not getting infected and dying the parents are going out into the community more, going out to eat more, going to sporting events. Feeling more "normal" about life, because life looks more normal.

    The above is, of course, speculation without evidence.

    1. HokieAnnie

      Sort of - the kids are getting infected though not getting as sick so the kids are spreading COVID to more vulnerable adults especially in areas where they aren't required to mask in schools.

      1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

        Any thoughts on VA Gov?

        I just gave another ten each to Terry & Hala. Fingers crossed that the Winemoms of NoVa don't fall for the Critical Race Theory Conspiracy that Yungkins & the Bois from Kochistan are selling.

        1. HokieAnnie

          I'm hoping that this is a case of the pollster's likely voter models being off as was the case in the California recall. But I worry about turnout because I live to worry. I'm not seeing evidence of folks falling for the astroturfed CRT crap in Fairfax but if they fall for it in Loundon county or in the Richmond area we are toast.

      2. DButch

        According to the local paper (Bellingham Herald) here in Whatcom county (WA), we're getting a worrisome covid-19 wave here. Between Sept. 5 and Oct. 16 we had 862 diagnosed covid cases in the 20 and under group, accounting for 30% of total new covid cases in the county. Cumulative data for that group is now at 14,619 confirmed cases, 776 hospitalizations, and 152 deaths.

        I'm hoping everybody jumps on the approval of vaccines for children 12 and under fast.

        1. Doctor Jay

          A graduate of Blaine High School, class of 74 here. Recognize!

          Whatcom County is such a strange mix of right and left. I love visiting, and wish y'all the best as you try to cope with this.

  7. jdubs

    Unless you age adjust the charts, its hard to draw conclusions about how effective the US was at preventing deaths.
    The US is considerably younger than most European countries and should have performed significantly better without any effective action.

  8. rick_jones

    and second, during the current period when Fox News and its comrades have been trashing vaccines and masks.

    Has there actually been a time during all this when Fox News and it’s comrades weren’t trashing masks and vaccines?

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      When Angela Merkel released the Pfizer vax news after the election (so as to hurt El Jefe going into it) but before the Courts defied all logic & reason & found Giuliani, Lindell, Powell, & Wood noncredible with their rocksolid explanation of the Biden "win".

      I have no doubt, had the election been overturned, that the Jefe Regime would have imposed an ironclad vaxxx mandate, with abstainers sent to concentration camps on federal lands in the west (where they would have been not so gradually malnourished & otherwise abused, leading to their inevitable death (possibly from COVID, which El Jefe would have purposefully released in the camps, as a herd immunity initiative)).

  9. edutabacman

    I don't think the correlation with "politicians staying out" is the important one here.
    The US has done relatively well (ie: as badly as others) when there were high levels of cases everywhere. When there are drops (like right now in most of Europe) other countries have managed to get down to almost no cases, while the US has remained way higher than that.

    The bottom line for US is high, much higher than the other countries. There is a relatively large group of people that refuse vaccines, refuse masks, refuse distancing and is therefore a reservoir of new cases, even in the best of circumstances. They are driven by politics, yes, but the cycles of more or less cases are not driven by particular political events (like "open by easter" comments)

    1. mostlystenographicmedia

      Agree. What that graph is really showing is the steady grind of American (mostly conservative) resistance to community safety measures, be it social distancing, masks, or vaccines. There have been variances in conservative media emphasis on these topics which have inflamed the political discourse at times, but it’s that group of anti-anything-health-measures which have kept the US Covid numbers high, even during lulls in the pandemic.

  10. jeff-fisher

    Toxic centrism requires that the glorious independents be something other than mostly just a bunch of people who lie (usually to themselves as well as others) about their very strong party preference.

  11. geordie

    Whenever I look at those charts all I can see is that throughout the summer of 2020 the USA was a reservoir that allowed the resurgence. Sure there was the onset of winter and lots of other things that had an effect including new variants but I have to wonder what would have happened if we had gotten deaths (being a surrogate for cases) down to approximately 0 like much of the rest of the OECD.

  12. Dana Decker

    Fox News has been astonishing in that regard. Promote unverified (and almost certainly worthless) alternative medicines, say if a vaccine isn't 100% effective that it's no good, make opposition to medical consensus a badge of honor.

  13. Larry Jones

    Jumping in here to say that we can't talk about "independents" as if they are just another group of voters, like conservatives, moderates, progressives, et al, with their own consistent political and social agendas. They are lo-info or no-info folks, who, if they vote at all, do so according to how they happen to feel on election day, or maybe the physical appearance of a candidate (My mom voted for Reagan because she liked his hair). Because they pay little or no attention to issues and what's actually going on, they are easily influenced by charlatans and grifters, so they tend to vote for whomever is spinning the best yarn. In other words, Republicans.

  14. ruralhobo

    As a European I will say our governments' responses to the pandemic, to say nothing of the Commission, were anemic and more stick than carrot. Ordinary people like me, aside from the minority that got stay-at-home funds, got almost no assistance whatsoever for income loss and other difficulties, certainly nothing even vaguely comparable to what Americans got, I received five masks twice, and by way of a boost to unemployment benefits 150 euros, once. The sticks worked if you look at it only from a public health perspective. Certainly France's vaccine pass did. But the US did a better job at easing the economic pain which is also important.

  15. skeptonomist

    There are lessons to be learned when you also consider the countries which did manage to keep infection rates low by what were considered extreme measures here and also in european countries. What was needed was not only masking, but also tracing and isolation. The CDC never had the power to enforce the required measures and might not have had them under a different President than Trump. What will happen if the next pandemic is more contagious and/or more fatal? Where is our tracing organization?

    We also know that vaccines can now be produced almost instantly. Will the approval and distribution be sped up enough to prevent or ameliorate an initial wave?

    So the lessons should be trace and isolate, and get the vaccine out really fast. I don't see much evidence that these have been learned at the political level.

    1. KenSchulz

      Contact-tracing and quarantine have been state responsibilities, but as with many other government functions, Federal agencies can attach strings to funding to achieve greater uniformity and adherence to standards. Of course, Covid-19 was brought here by air travelers, and the Federal government has direct control over them. We should be prepared to treat arrivals as potential carriers, as NZ and others did, and to be prepared to defend mandatory testing, isolation and quarantine policies in the courts. We don’t know the limits of Executive authority in the case of a pandemic until it’s tested

      1. rational thought

        I think Kevin is mostly off on what has caused the difference. First note that his chart is for deaths by report date . This lags actual death date by a few weeks on average and death on actual date lags infection by maybe three weeks on average. So , if you are trying to determine what prior action ( i.e. infection) caused the death , you have to look back a little over a month . Or more as one infection can cause a chain.

        And consider that deaths can be related to two general factors. What affected the chance of infection and what affects the chance an infection becomes a death.

        So, given all that , let us look at both times kevin references.

        And consider various factors, including some kevin neglects . Kevin mentions restrictions and vaccinations. I would say there are four main factors affecting death numbers.

        First , social structure including restrictions but also including cultural issues such as how " warm" a culture is , things like big family gatherings, large family units , hugging a lot, etc. In general social structure, nations like Germany sweden and Canada have some advantage over us with covid but not a nation like Italy. Note in this regard, both white conservative and southern culture is " warmer" than white northern liberals in us, but most minority groups also have a " warmer" culture. Cultures like Germany are somewhat naturally imposing social distancing.

        Second, climate and latitude ( sunshine). And note Europe is almost all at the same or higher latitude than southern parts of us ( Rome is like ny). High latitude means you have a good advantage in summer and bad in winter. Low latitude like Florida seems summer might be worse season or at least maybe no real big seasonal difference.

        Third, immunity, which includes both natural and vaccine, and takes into account how it might wane over time . And this also can be split into two affects. Reducing infection and reducing the chance an infection becomes a death.

        Fourth , medical care and overall health and comorbidities. For now , I think I will disregard this factor as, mostly, the differences between the nations are small and some offset.

        So look at summer of 2020. Deaths there relate back to infections in late spring and early summer. Which is exactly when the latitude advantage of Europe would be the highest. And consider immunity in some nations like Italy Spain and France. Natural immunity was very high then because of how bad it was in mid spring 2020, same as only a small part of usa ( ny area). And note the chart does not really show the full extent of first wave as that is when deaths were being undercounted.

        So simpler explanation for higher summer 2020 numbers for usa as compared with most nations is latitude and climate and, for many of the other nations, higher immunity from bad first wave.

        To some extent, the " first wave " is just more spread out from spring 2020 to end of summer, while most other nations had a bigger peak and fall. Which was a GOOD thing , not bad.

        Perhaps a better question might be why us death rates stayed so close relative to other nations during winter 2020-2021 . When we should have had the climate latitude advantage and had more recent natural immunity.

        Perhaps what should have happened if all policies equal was summer of 2020 looking like it did but usa much lower in winter. Perhaps kevin is critical of the wrong time period?

        And this summer pretty much same sorts of climate differences. But no Europe advantage in natural immunity and a new vaccination factor.

        Re vaccination and number of infections, I would still give the usa an advantage over all but uk, although debatable now. We are less vaccinated today and have been for a few months. But vaccinated earlier and had higher rates for most of winter and spring , which should have reduced spread vs Europe then . So , as infection is a chain, I would say vaccination differences are a wash or usa advantage to date , so far.

        But WHO were vaccinated is different too. Usa vaccination rates among young are not much lower than many of those nations. But you see a bigger pool of unvaccinated elderly in usa . And THAT increases death rate per infection.

  16. cld

    get this,

    The estimated rate of infections in Iran is so high that it suggests herd immunity cannot be achieved without vaccination,

    Nearly every person in Iran seems to have had covid-19 at least once,

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294215-nearly-every-person-in-iran-seems-to-have-had-covid-19-at-least-once/

    . . . .
    The analysis showed that the total infected population was probably very high in many provinces. Eleven of them had rates over 100 per cent as of 17 September. The highest rates were seen in Sistan and Baluchestan province, which had an estimated attack rate of 259 per cent. If accurate, that would mean most people have had the virus twice and some for a third time. The researchers conclude that herd immunity through natural infection hasn’t been attained in Iran in spite of widespread exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, probably because of immunity waning over time, susceptibility to new variants of concern like delta or a combination of the two.

    Mark Loeb at McMaster University in Canada says studies using direct measurements of infections are needed to conclusively determine the attack rate of the virus for a given population. However, he finds the study’s conclusions plausible. “Overall, what’s happening globally is that it certainly does appear that antibodies wane and there’s not this point where, miraculously, herd immunity or herd effect is achieved,” he says.

    Loeb says he isn’t aware of any pathogens for which herd immunity has been reached without vaccination. “By far the safest and most effective way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination,” he says.
    . . . .

    1. rational thought

      These type of statements really cry out for defining what you mean by " herd immunity " . Seems the standard he is using is a real high one where immunity is so strong and lasting that the disease disappears and those remaining uninfected end up with zero chance of being infected.

      By that standard, herd immunity is mostly a fantasy. While I expect the human race had achieved herd immunity from some viruses thru natural infection ( of which we do not know them because they are gone) most viruses we know of become endemic in the end.

      Note that many have become " childhood diseases " like measles . For those natural immunity is so good and long lasting that, even before vaccination, if there were no " new no immunity entrants " to the population, we would have eradicated it by natural immunity. But there are such new entrants - births.

      So the virus hangs on in children who rarely die when they get it and develop natural immunity when less dangerous . Some viruses are only really dangerous if you catch it as an adult .

      Who here is old enough to remember chicken pox and measles " parties " where you sent your kids to try to get infected?

      It was possible that covid could be like that. A childhood disease where natural immunity is good enough to prevent future infection most times ( enough to bring R below 1.0) , but children still get it and survive fine. But appears more likely now that more like a virus where immunity wanes enough so it becomes endemic and you catch it a few times over your lifetime

      1. rational thought

        And so what ? What if it becomes endemic and you catch it again? Is this clearly bad news ?

        Our immune systems are an amazing miracle. They know what they are doing figuratively. If natural immunity wanes , that would tend to indicate that the immune system has determined that , if you do get infected again , it remembers how to ramp up the antibodies once again and knows it can beat it . The immune system generally only continues to produce antibodies if the virus poses a serious risk of illness if reinfected. Maybe covid is really only that dangerous the FIRST time when it is a novel virus and our immune system knows that .

        1. rational thought

          Then we have to consider vaccines and how they might differ from natural immunity.

          One possible concern is that vaccine long term immunity in memory cells is NOT as good as natural - simply because the immune system did not see the actual virus and be able to determine the future threat of reinfection . So the immune system lets antibodies from vaccines wane when not really having the memory to make a true reinfection less serious. It just thinks that " that vaccine infection was not dangerous ( obvious vaccine is not supposed to be) so no need to maintain antibodies " but still need then if real reinfection.

          So i would not be very worried about having antibodies and natural immunity wane if actually infected as immune system would keep making antibodies if reinfection dangerous. But cannot necessarily say the same re vaccination.

          Possible the best strategy will be to TRY to get infected right after a vaccine booster when still have strong vaccine antibodies.

          1. cld

            I think your rose colored glasses are seeing into the infrared.

            A disease that can cause permanent injury or death isn't something we can be sanguine about.

          2. gvahut

            I've read your many posts today, and think you're on point with a lot of your discussion. But I think the problem with intentional infection after vaccination is not knowing whether you happen to be one the unfortunate people who don't handle the infection well. Not everyone knows how robust their own immune system is nor how specifically we may manage a Covid infection, though we have a good idea about many who are debilitated or immunosuppressed. If you're older and reasonably healthy like me (67), I'm sure that's not a great strategy. As a physician I saw young patients who were apparently healthy with no diagnosed immune deficiency who didn't handle a particular infection well. I think we need to see how this subsequent booster functions over time to make more educated guesses about longer-term strategies that we may need, and also may see therapeutic solutions come about to address things before we decide to go back to chicken pox parties.

            And there's also the issue of communicability, and keeping the virus away from at-risk people if you intentionally are infected.

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