I've forgotten to follow up on this recently, so here is K-12 public education employment through November:
November employment was the highest in the past decade with the exception (barely) of 2019—even though school enrollment has dropped about 6%. There's no apparent teacher shortage.
This comes with the usual caveats. It includes all ed employees, not just teachers.¹ It's national, so it doesn't imply that there are no shortages in specific areas. And it says nothing about the quality of teachers (The percentage of teachers with less than three years experience has been generally declining over the past 20 years. At the same time, the percentage entering teaching through nontraditional routes has been increasing. So....)
¹Teachers fairly steadily account for about half of all ed employees, but this data is annual and lags by a couple of years. It probably hasn't changed recently, but there's no way to say for sure.
The numbers of K-12 students expected and the number of college students majoring in education right now would be relavant. The former has been pretty steady for a while; the latter has seen a large drop since the 1990s, with a continued decline, especially in the numbers of women majoring in education.
To say there's no overall teacher shortage isn't very helpful. Shortages in certain fields affect the quality of education delivered, which is one reason that the US lags behind other countries in STEM fields.
Yeah, to say there's no shortage assumes longer-term trends not in evidence. Education program enrollment at Penn State fell off a cliff several years before I retired in 2017, to the point where they had to do some serious faculty and support staff trimming, and afaik it hasn't recovered at all since then. The decline came after the crash of 2008 but I'm not sure exactly when it started. However since then I've been reading about teacher shortages all over the state. And that's in a state where I believe school-age population has declined seriously over the same time.
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I've been teaching in Los Angeles secondary schools for the last 18 years. This will almost certainly be my last. There are and have been shortages every year, but much less so since our strike in 2019. I don't know if there is any causal relation, but our salaries increased then and more recently.
The shortages & rapid turnover are still evident in special ed, math, and ESL. But it is not nearly as bad as 2005-2018 when nearly every high school had multiple unfilled positions.
Urban districts often have the highest turnover. When I started teaching, in a large northeastern city, I saw six math teachers come and go in a year in the room next door to me. I left to teach elsewhere after six years, pocketing tuition assistance that paid off much of my student debt. So the students I taught got the worst of what I had to offer, because I was just beginning to master the skills I needed.
The way the US fails to cultivate a competent and committed teaching workforce are too many to count.
"Highest in the past decade" and "no teacher shortage" are not the same thing. I should think that would be obvious, but if you start with not enough teachers and you make back some of that, you still don't have enough teachers.
The only way you can claim that this data shows "no teacher shortage" is if you know how many teachers are needed. You don't so I put that claim in the same category as "tax cuts always pay for themselves." The data does not support your conclusion.
The critical number is the number of students per teacher. Then, it would be nice to know how many are needed for special education and ESL.
School enrollment has dropped 6 percent? How much of that is declining birth rate and how is much the rise in home schooling as described in WaPost recent article?
I wonder too--a cousin recently retired from teaching, but then returned as a teacher's aide. Never heard of such things in my day. How do the stats account for such changes I wonder?
You've tried to make this claim before, but it is incorrect. By your major there cannot ever be a teacher shortage. By law, there has to be 1/30th of a teacher per student: the number of teachers can not decline past that.
What happens instead is that the districts hire any warm body possible to sit at the front of the room and pretend to be a teacher.