The American economy gained 311,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at 221,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.6%.
This jobs report is weaker than it looks at first glance. The number of unemployed people jumped by 242,000 and the employment level was up by only 177,000 (87,000 on a net basis). This doesn't suggest a booming economy.
The number of people working part-time voluntarily was down by 227,000. You may recall that just a couple of weeks ago the Wall Street Journal said that part-time work was "exploding." I guess not.
Average hourly earnings for blue-collar workers were up in February, but weekly earnings were down 1.5% on an annualized basis. Adjusted for inflation, this is a drop of about 7%.
This is going to be taken as another reason to raise interest rates.
The beatings will continue until workers are fucked.
We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth,
Population growth or labor force growth?
Workforce participation was still low last month, so this month we see good job numbers and the unemployment rate going up.
If we were to look at trend lines from pre-pandemic times, we're still in a jobs deficit. Seeing up catch up to where we were does not mean an economy in overdrive, it just means things are getting back to normal.
People are still shaking off the Covid isolation--and catching up with friends and family. But that's going to taper off this year.
The infrastructure bill is helping already. Construction jobs are up even though housing is taking a hit. I'd say the war in Ukraine is helping defense contractors, and their workers, but manufacturing jobs are falling. Note, as car makers go electric, their workforce will drop--fewer parts, therefore fewer people needed to make them.
I didn't anticipate a jump in jobs in Jan--I was expecting things to fall off a cliff once the cumulative effects of rate hikes start to fully bite--which would be, like, now. Ok, let's try large error bars, say a month or three.
Golack
" I'd say the war in Ukraine is helping defense contractors, and their workers, but manufacturing jobs are falling"
You might want to read this:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-arm-ukraine-u-faces-203940262.html
{snip}
Research conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows the current output of American factories may be insufficient to prevent the depletion of stockpiles of key items the United States is providing Ukraine. Even at accelerated production rates, it is likely to take at least five years to recover the inventory of Javelin antitank missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles and other in-demand items.
Earlier research done by the Washington think tank illustrates a more pervasive problem: The slow pace of U.S. production means it would take as long as 15 years at peacetime production levels, and more than eight years at a wartime tempo, to replace the stocks of major weapons systems such as guided missiles, piloted aircraft and armed drones if they were destroyed in battle or donated to allies.
"It is a wake-up call," Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview, referring to the production problems the war has exposed. "We have to have an industrial base that can respond very quickly."
{snip}
In WWII liberty ships were produced one every three weeks
Escort (much smaller) aircraft carriers took 3 to 6 months
Fleet carriers were 2 to 3 years from keel laying to launching
Now we are having problems replacing things like howitzer shells and other munitions?
France has had a negative birth rate since 2003 and they're paying a severe price now with them raising retirement age and the population is pissed.....
We are almost at a negative birthrate here in the US.
Is it hopeless? No - but we DO have to get used to a new normal. We have fewer people producing goods for the larger number of consumers. We NEED to get some of those older workers BACK into the work force.
Try this. Eliminate taxes on those over the age of 65 who work or may contemplate working. Eliminate the affect on their social security. The ONLY tax they should pay is social security. (There are other ways to buttress the SS Trust fund but this could be one way) This would give seniors MUCH more money in their pockets - AND they would be replenishing the SS trust fund with the taxes they would pay. Its a tax cut for the lower income people that would make it palatable to return to work which in turn would make employers happier.
No matter what I don't think we can serve as the worlds armorer for much longer. We just don't have the manpower to do that.
I think Kevin is greatly underestimating how good the jobs report is. I always check out https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ and see the participation rates. 25-to-54 year old are about as high as they go in the 21st century:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqkm57_3oarj7p1lCJRDyfXsvHUE6hcnd5X20CGXSBn61eu03BwT226EqRIPjQmD9XDOFq8hS33tD85mdJnxtVVdfHVuozgdxG2p9skgP_3QnM7Sb59UXNmqhY_7K5337F75vCSFomyIOYf-QSuMQ3CWLmId4DWTwqJ1DQ7NnUhvAWahAmLQ/s1065/EmployPop2554Feb2023.PNG
I see numbers still around the lower limit for Part Time for Economic Reasons:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5gCUlge0CfYJ9qeOgJRpg7PBijqlt_us2xzkYXbOfGMJ7XDrwxI7qmMziw0uhO6xw42b_ExghOUpOTluHM2EXGgdF87UalvzufPndXR1obftbHL3dRdpgKgmFWo1nZ0RkB8tLoz6Ag6obejjAj_N9dPkCf6mHkAu1ELLaeS5nIAOwhlFBRw/s1020/PartTimeFeb2023.PNG
And Unemployed for Over 26 Weeks:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH7PjvxMuX2HPQkRdFHq3LBswsVCTDW2OiHWczIBSRTLfJXlLHrcYaBkOM4QOmMF5RIFbrf5x-jrFQK5F_S9PW1_0QWpzxcDjTssZRmwaSV_JcmSwIz-wiw-NarctcI1C06U2z--lMCoTfeffHdT7WFeWtEv_uyDZbS5nvSwWb_wwSeVSrdA/s1018/Unemploy26Feb2023.PNG
Not everyone is eligible for Initial Unemployment Claims, but they are still at ridiculously low levels:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9nfC2Wp8FsgPqYhHwEkM-rHBgmEonaL2k_zRiH94JVzJT4vo1eWt9EsQXk3KaqLh8LxnMRAMTwgrDMh1bbZFSdLkPoj2l7XVkKpe4n5PLsr_njebpTg1uqVbimQfD2RKiahDtZp63ObliVOF6wYM7h6RtYW3EZya_R-KVnNffWWp871ARFQ/s1081/WeeklyClaimsMar92023.PNG
It is true that any of these numbers can change rapidly, so maybe we are on the verge of a recession, but one thing stood out to me. Higher interest rates mostly work to depress construction spending/employment. This report says: Construction employment increased 24 thousand
New housing starts have been falling, down roughly 25% YoY in January.
However, housing units under construction are not yet dropping.
At some point the fall in new starts has to show up as a fall in overall housing construction. Or...maybe not.
Some say that many construction companies are anticipating more business when the infrastructure bill kicks in this year, so why lay people off now.
I'd also point out that there is still seems to be a housing shortage. You discount the possibility that housing starts could go up.
In any case, someone thinks they need to hire more construction workers.
Oh, after rereading your post I guess you are at least open to the possibility.
According to Joe Stiglitz on Democracy Now (I know, I know; but it was Stiglitz) a few days ago, the Fed is trying to drive up the unemployment rate, which he thinks is not the right strategy.
If there aren't many unemployed workers, then workers are able to bargain for higher wages more effectively. This is Bad for Capital, and thus, needs to be crushed by the Fed.
The labor force participation rate rose again, coming closer to the pre-pandemic level but nowhere close to the record levels set in the late-90s, while the civilian labor force is at a historic high.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=111ki
What do you make of this?
I was confused by the chart for a minute. That is the data for everyone. Most people only bother with the 25-54 year old data. These days, your chart basically just shows how many people are retired.