The American economy gained 199,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at a moderate 109,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7%.
The number of employed was way up and the number of unemployed was way down, so this is a nice jobs report. Things are still trending down, but at least for now the employment picture is holding together.
One note, however: several news outlets have taken November's number as evidence that we're approaching a "soft landing." That's absurd. Employment is trending downward, and we have no idea what that means for the future. Typically, employment is OK up until the very month when it isn't and we slip into recession. The current trend is simply no indication one way or the other of what will happen six months from now or how bad it will be.
Looking at 2023 after January, net new jobs looks pretty steady. A trend line for this period does not go down. As they say, there's lies, damn lies and then there's statistics.
Here's a look from Jan. 2021. It shows three trend lines during this period.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf
Think about the syntax of what you wrote. The rate of new jobs is slowing but employment is still trending upward.
Except, recession isn't defined by a month of downward trend in employment. You know this. Employment figures are volatile, after all.
Also, I'm still trying to reconcile your statement, "and we have no idea what that means for the future". Are you saying that the signal for a recession is the same as that of a soft landing? What exactly do you think would be a signal for a soft landing?
He's really doubling and tripling down on this "a recession is coming" narrative, isn't he?
To go even further, all of these employment charts that start in 2021 are worthless. 2021 was an unusual year for very obvious reasons. We need to go back to at least 2019 data in these charts to be able to make any kind of judgement whatsoever. Kevin's refusal to even acknowledge that he needs to include that data gives away the game here; he's become a hack on this subject because he seems to be emotionally invested in being right about something that he hasn't been right about.
This is a classic, "squint at it it and you can see whatever you want" kind of chart. I can completely understand the soft landing side, or the declining employment interpretations. It looks like leveling off, but a little uncertainty goes a long way, then "flat" portion of the curve may just as easily turn out to be a steadily, though slower, decline.
My wife is a marketer with 14 years experience but no one is even returning her employment inquiries.
That might be ageism.
We're almost back to where we'd be without the pandemic--it's not just about adding back the jobs lost, but also accounting for the jobs we would have gained, except for the pandemic.
Of course, we're running into our own demographic issues. Last of the baby boomers are over 60 and will be retiring soon. We do need to increase immigration to level things out.