The American economy gained 261,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at 171,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
This is a respectable report, but the bad news is that about 300,000 people left employment and entered the unemployment roles. That's why the unemployment rate went up from 3.5% to 3.7%. Almost all of that came from people losing their jobs or finishing up temporary gigs. None of it came from voluntary leavers.
And now, as a special treat (!), here's a look at the employment diffusion index through October:
This is a measure of the percentage of industries that are expanding. It includes all industries that are hiring more workers + half the industries that are flat. The latest figure is 62%, which is good, but not as good as it was last year. As with so many other metrics, it peaked early in 2022 and has been dropping ever since. This is a sign that employment is not as robust as we think. More on that later.
In earnings news, blue-collar wages were up 4%. Adjusted for inflation this comes out to -0.1%.
The next drivers of growth will be clean energy and electric cars. For the latter, there will also be a drop in jobs in the suto industry overall since electric cars are easier to build--at least the mechanics. Not sure if those jobs could go to building wind turbines or heat pumps--though both are needed. Cars for bullet trains needed too--if we could ever really get behind high speed rail.
It won't matter where the jobs are.
So long as the economy does NOT crash we will have continued tight labor markets UNLESS Congress can come to grips with immigration policies.
Both parties know this as do many businesses
Perhaps the big business over the next 20 years will be cruise lines, restaurants and other leisure industries as more people are retiring.
If you have a trade - ANY trade skill set - you can almost name your price here in Wilmington NC. Nurses are the same as well.
It's bizarro world out there