Like many people, I have long feared that Chinese authorities would eventually find it impossible to keep up their drastic COVID lockdown policies. Well, it's starting:
November 21, late evening in China
The disobedience continues.
Haizhu District, Guangzhou, people escape from quarantine.#Haizhu #China #Guangzhou #ChinaUprisingThread pic.twitter.com/Dat3Ip5WLH— 247ChinaNews (@247ChinaNews) November 21, 2022
And here's the result:
Notwithstanding the likely (vast) underreporting of Covid cases and deaths in China; based on estimates, China now has one of the fastest growing epidemics in the world. (Chart via Morgan Stanley). pic.twitter.com/iVtY0p34kb
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) November 21, 2022
COVID in China has a doubling time of about five days and an R0 of 1.4, which is fairly low. But it would be no surprise if that increases with both time and better information.
Maybe this is just a brief spasm of protest that will be quickly put down. But if it's not, China is about to become the biggest reservoir of COVID virus in the world, and probably the biggest source of variants in the world too.
I read in the paper (Tampa Bay Times) this morning that China announced its first Covid death in more than half a year. They had more than 24,000 cases in the last 24 hours but the vast majority of them are asymptomatic.
Three announced deaths in Beijing over the weekend. All in mid 80s or above. Nobody here believes government death statistics, though. The Han would have to be a race of mutants for the country's covid death numbers to be so low.
Nothing must disturb The Narrative that the Party is looking out for the best interests of the People and is the only entity which can do so.
Pretty hilarious they refused to approve the western mRNAs and then were too stupid to make their own in time.
My cousin could truly receive money in their spare time on their laptop. their best friend had been doing this 4 only about 12 months and by now cleared the debt. in their mini mansion and bought a great Car.
That is what we do.. https://earningblue.blogspot.com/
I though India would become the become “the biggest reservoir of Covid” but that didn’t happen. I wonder if they did something right or it was just luck.
It wasn't luck. India didn't practice zero covid. That's the difference. When you bring massive efforts (including vast-in-scale coercion) to bear shielding the population from a virus, you're going to get a population that's a sitting duck. Yes, vaccines will help, but as we've seen in other countries, even Western vaccines aren't 100% effective, and China's vaccines aren't as good as those in the West. (plus, something like 60% of the over 80 population in China hasn't been boosted).
With India’s giant population and crowding along with their large number of poor, I thought it was ripe for a massive outbreak. Yet their deaths per million rate is extremely low. If the US had Indias death rate we’d barely be talking about Covid. If it isn’t luck, then perhaps we should emulate what they have done. But I don’t know what that is.
Climate? In a few more years, we may have a similar climate. Don't stop Global Warming!!! /s
If you compare the covid death numbers for Canada and the US, or for the European countries, it appears that covid thrives in warm climates. The US has a much higher covid death rate than Canada, (I don't have a state-by-state breakdown but my impression is that Alaska has a pretty low rate) and the Mediterranean countries have much higher covid death rates than the Scandinavian countries.
If climate were the difference between China and India, I would expect India to have the higher rate.
Alaska has a lower death rate, it’s #47 out of the 50 States (according to Worldometers) but I would point out that California is #41 with a lower death rate than North Dakota which has a similar death rate to Texas.
Just looking at the United States, I see no relationship of climate to Covid deaths. My own take with regard to the US is that government policies and the local population’s willingness to take precautions have more to do with it than climate.
I thought it was ripe for a massive outbreak. Yet their deaths per million rate is extremely low.
I suspect India has had a "massive outbreak"—I wouldn't touch India's covid mortality statistics* with a ten foot pole. Look at Nigeria's, too—utterly non-credible.
*Fortunately India, like nearly all countries (save China) at this point, has a population characterized by widespread exposure to the coronavirus, and therefore widespread resistance. So (again, like most countries, but not China) the worst is behind them.
I don’t trust India’s reporting either, but at the same time I didn’t hear of mass deaths over a long period with hospitals overwhelmed, etc. Quite frankly, that’s kind of what I was expecting. The US death rate per million is 3,294. If India had our death rate 4.5 million people would have died, and I think that would have been tough to hide.
You changed the subject. The question is why India didn't become a resevoir, not why it isn't about to experience a high contagion rate.
Are you saying India is the example of herd immunity working?
Unfortunately the vaccine used in China is not as effective as those used in the west, at least against the original strain, but reportedly 90% of the population have been "fully immunized". There used to be a chart of vaccine development, which also included how effective they were in clinical trials. I don't see that anymore--maybe because the effectiveness varies a bit with different strains.
With a high population density, extra care needs to be taken in urban areas. That said, China should move to masking--that still helps--and booster shots. China has fewer hospital and ICU beds per population than the US and Europe--also a reason for extra caution. But the gov't is stuck in zero-tolerance mode and doesn't know how to back out of it....
The creakiness of the healthcare system is a huge concern, and has been one of the primary motivations driving zero covid. The Party is scared shitless China's healthcare system isn't up to the task of dealing with a wave of very sick people.
(But, "move to masking"? Mandatory masking is ubiquitous here. I wear one every day).
My bad
It was fun to see Dems "win" the midterms this month, but having a GOP House should be a sobering thought.
We have no experience in recent times (since at least Truman) when the country had a recession, a pandemic, or other grave crisis while Republicans controlled a house of Congress and Democrats the White House. (Clinton and Obama inherited bad economies but had D majorities their first two years, when any emergency legislation needed to pass.)
We could have not one but two of those events in 2023. If so, hold on to your hats.
First mover, or home field advantage. Take your pick.
Are we supposed to favor the Chinese continuing their draconian measures to keep people from living their lives when in the rest of the world people have been largely living normal lives for the past year and a half? I'm not sure what the hot take is here. Is it supposed to be "Don't let your guard down! Covid is about to get much worse!"--which seems to be an evergreen story at this point?
China is in a bind.
Its original vaccines are ineffective against Omicron and their mRNA vaccine candidate only recently got approval...in Indonesia. They haven't yet finished their factories to mass produce the vaccine, but even when completed, the efficacy is less than 75%. Moderna is unable to sell its vaccines in China because they refuse to do a full IP transfer.
China has no choice but to follow zero- or near-zero-COVID strategy because it refuses to accept western technology w/o preconditions that are meant to support its homegrown industries.
This is entirely on the CCP.
China now is where we (NZ) were a year ago - there comes a time when you can't keep isolated
Here in NZ we had managed to vaccinate enough people - despite the murdering anti-vaxxers - that the transition was not too bad
We went from about 30 deaths to 1500 -
But our total deaths per 100,000 is still down at 31 - about a tenth of the US death rate
If China ends up like us that would be over 4 million deaths