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Consumers still think a recession is coming

Consumer confidence in December is up!

The increase in the Present Situation line looks mostly like noise to me, part of a downward trend that started more than a year ago. Conversely, the Expectations line looks like it really is rebounding a bit. However, as the Conference Board notes, "Expectations are still lingering around 80—a level associated with recession."

Better up than down, but I wouldn't make too much of this. There's a recession coming next year, and I'm not sure I buy the near-universal consensus that it will be "mild." When the Wall Street pack starts to unanimously agree on something is when I get nervous.