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Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 28 Update

Published on 7 Comments on Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 28 Update

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through April 28. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

7 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 28 Update”

    2. Jasper_in_Boston

      Could it be that a virtuous cycle of fewer new cases and fewer deaths is slowly building?

      Well, sure, but in my mind the key word here (for the US) is "slowly."

      The 7-day moving average of daily deaths in the US is down something like 80% since its peak around the time Trump left office. But that decline has slowed down considerably in recent weeks. Part of this, I expect, is that much of the "low-hanging fruit" of covid mortality reduction has been harvested (ie, elderly Americans were prioritized from day one) .

      What I'm curious about is America's much weaker progress in reducing deaths vs. the United Kingdom. IIRC, the latter only had about a ten day head start in beginning their vaccination drive, but a large gap has opened up between the two countries, and it seems to have persisted now, over weeks. America's per capita covid death rate is about five times higher than the Britain's, and the gap shows no sign of narrowing (I'm sure it will, eventually, but when?).

      The size and persistence of the gap is a head-scratcher for a layperson like me. I'd imagine it is due to a combination of A) UK head start; B) UK decision to prioritize first jabs C) stronger UK social distancing, recent lockdowns C) higher coronavirus endemicity/herd immunity in the UK.*

      But maybe there are other factors. In any event my sense is the United States should be further along than we are in reducing the death toll. Eighty percent is nothing to sneeze at, but UK covid mortality is down something like 98%.

      *And it's hard to believe this last one could be much of a factor, given the very comparable per capita covid death tolls in the two countries.

  2. golack

    ME dropped down and out of the red zone, now below 25 new cases/day/100K

    Northeast in general has cases dropping, and dropping rapidly in many places. Highest rate of new cases still has MI at the top (numbers falling, now below 50), now followed by MN and CO--NJ has now dropped to #4 (these states below 30)and NY has dropped all they way to #14.

    Eight states and PR above 25 new cases/day/100K. Ten plus NMI below 10.
    Hopefully, OR and WA have stopped going up, both still below 20 but have been going up steadily.

    Nine states >50% vaccinated (first shot); Seven below 35%

    Time to look at hot spots (CovidActNow metro areas):
    Muskegon MI, 92+ new cases/day/100K
    Fairbanks, AK, 69
    Bay City, MI 59
    Lewiston, ME 57.

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      El Pepe Maximo has finally hit the wall.

      It was all predictable after the failed nomination of Neera Tanden at OMB. The harbinger of things to come, the sign of a first 100 days of turmoil.

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