NOTE: Please read the update and this post. It seems likely that, in fact, the J&J pause had little to no effect on vaccination rates or vaccine hesistancy.
A couple of weeks ago we were arguing about the public effect of the CDC's pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Would it make people more confident in vaccines because it shows that the CDC is really on the job? Or would it make people less confident in vaccines because it shows that they aren't as safe as we thought? Daniel Bier presents this as evidence today:
And yes, the decision to yank J&J’s vaccine was the trigger.
Daily vaccinations were rapidly growing for every demographic under 50, and stable for 50-64, until the FDA’s “pause” (as though they could unclick that button and undo the damage).
They abruptly u-turn: pic.twitter.com/6GJ6m46PKm
— Daniel Bier (@FT__Dan) April 28, 2021
What this shows is that people ages 18-49, who were rapidly increasing their vaccination rate, took a sudden lurch downward right at the time the J&J pause was announced. Those from 50-64, who were holding steady, also took a big downward dip. Conversely, those under 18, who were approved only for the Pfizer vaccine, showed no change in response.
Is this proof that the J&J pause produced the drop in people getting shots? Of course not, but it's certainly suggestive. Did anything else happen in mid-April that might account for this?
UPDATE: Here's another chart showing vaccination doses by brand:
The sharp decline in J&J doses is obviously part of the reason for the overall drop in vaccinations. However, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also suffer a drop. The Pfizer vaccine, in particular, begins to decline at about the same time the J&J pause is announced.
This complicates the picture, though I'd say the evidence still points toward the J&J pause being responsible for an overall drop in in people getting vaccinated.
Is it the pause or the blood clots themselves?
Because it seems unlikely to me that you would see everyone happily getting vaccinated after the blood clot news came out, regardless of the CDC's decision to pause or not. The very public arguments about the pause certainly didn't help. I saw enough comments in my social media feeds that were basically "women get blood clots all the time, so no biggie." That is absolutely not going to instill confidence in people who are already wary. Many women already feel their medical concerns are ignored in favor of expediency.
On top of that, the manufacturing issues J&J was having at the same time make vaccination seem a heck of a lot riskier. It was too many whoopsies all at once.
You mean female/birth control driven blood clots
Sandra Fluke finally getting what she deserved for slandering Medal of Freedom recipient Rush Limbaugh.
Has she dna tested Limbaugh yet???
Good points. Also, -1 to Daniel Bier for the gee-whiz graph.
Peak vaccinations was April 1.
On a rolling 7-day average, peak was April 11.
The advice to pause was on April 13.
You're right, rolling averages are lagging. Each age range needs to be treated independently, esp. the older groups who were prioritized first.
I'd guess, 50 and up groups were done, at least those easily to get were gotten. Younger groups probably would prefer the 1 and done vaccine--until it was pulled. College kids are getting into a limbo situation--if they start a two shot regimen at school, they might have to finish it at home.
Yep.
Of course once the J+J jab was remove from the mix, a few hundred thousand doses a day could not be administered.
I'm finished with caring much about what the great unwashed and unvaccinated do with their lives. If they want to skip the vaccine I'm fine with it. All those I care about have already gotten vaccinated (except one holdout who is rapidly losing credibility with me). It's just not worth thinking about them anymore.
Because ultimate, I suspect the real reason is this and the "pause" is just the excuse people use.
"My primary reason for refusing the vaccine is much simpler: I dislike the people who want me to take it, and it makes them mad when they hear about my refusal. That, in turn, makes me happy."
Don't allow yourself to be "owned". Let it go.
https://amgreatness.com/2021/04/26/i-wont-take-the-vaccine-because-it-makes-liberals-mad/
Wow. That was an interesting read. Makes this liberal that much more in favor of universal health care, including generous mental/behavioral health benefits.
Well, except naturopathic elite liberals who reject vaccination on the grounds of corporate profits and natural living. Though msnbc did a report a few days ago on them. They are the real antivaxx people. Contards are just virtue signaling.
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if in reality the guy pushed an old lady out of line to get his vaccine first.
Or the black man won't take it because he is sticking it to whitey. Contards live in their own echo chamber of dialectics. It's why a social nationalism vs conservative civil war is coming.
The unvaccinated will eventually make their contribution to herd immunity by becoming infected and acquiring whatever degree of immunity that confers.
Not exactly. It just cements the reality that Covid will likely be with us for a long time.
The myth of “natural” herd immunity relied on a virus that doesn’t readily mutate. This ain’t that virus. As it is, the unvaccinated will regularly get reinfected with whatever new strain is going around at the moment, and everyone else may need seasonal boosters against that new strain.
It will be interesting to see if the people who are refusing the vaccine will also refuse the pill Pfizer is working on to treat the illness.
Unfortunately their behavior does affect how protective your vaccine will be.
A 94% effective vaccine when the virus is still rampant in your community means you and your loved ones have WAY more opportunities to roll snake eyes. Never mind those a-holes being factories for new variants that reduce your vaccine's effectiveness to 50-50 or worse.
If we just created societal pressure (vaccine passports for everything, etc) that made the vaccine essentially mandatory we could eradicate this thing and move on with our lives. Sigh.
The biggest thing mid-April was the ahead-of-schedule availability of vaccine to everyone. At that point, everyone said, great, I'll get to it when I get to it. Pandemic deaths and illness only directly affected a small minority of Americans. The inconveniences are a pain-in-the-ass, but most people not old probably couldn't care less. I don't think the slowdown in vaccinations is a result of hesitancy, it's just indifference.
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There are potentially many reasons for the decrease. Perhaps some of it is due to blood clots and pause but it seems much more likely that it is more about the people who really wanted it are already vaccinated or in process. Anecdotally in my admittedly small social circle, vaccinations rates are 100% for at least 1 shot and maybe 60% for both. There is one guy at work who has said he is waiting but he's a former marine who had to go through that whole anthrax vaccination thing. My take is that here will be resistance for awhile but, as the benefits of being vaccinated become more apparent more people will do it.
The most likely factor for this "U turn" doesn't seem to be mentioned by Bier or Drum. That is, most people under 65 who wanted to get vaccinated had to wait until April. Then they packed the appointment schedule for a couple weeks. A lot of them still have to to back for the second shot, but for now, the big rush is over.
It was never supposed to just keep going up and up. The chart shows the sum of individual events. What about each individual? An individual doesn't increase his or her rate of vaccination. They get it, then they're done for a few weeks, then they get their second shot and then they're done. Rate goes to zero, you might say. Or you might say, "Wow, that person's vaccination rate spiked two times, but collapsed in between!" Well, you wouldn't say that, would you? Because you're not that dumb.
Only the 18+ matters when it comes to vaccines. 75% is approaching.
Also if you are worried about vaccine, metal toxicity, take ALA at 600mg for a month and it will chelate it right out. I had my blood checked and it was even in better shape than even prevaccine. How about that for naturopathy elitism??? Heh
The issue is that it was an easy one and done. Need to step up efforts to educate and povide resources for those who want vaccines and don't know how to get them.
Actually, the answer is somewhere in the charts.. given the two doses and gap in between, for each age group (at least the top 2) there is a spike followed by a trough and a spike followed by a free fall. I haven't simulated what a single dose vaccine introduced, paused and re-introduced would do to this curve, but I think it's too early to conclude one way or the other.
I am surprised Kevin bought into this so easily.
You can see the two peaks in the top 2 age cohorts. (Of course, the comorbidity eligibility clouds the picture by being drawn from all age groups..
Apparently, there was some production disruption for Jay and Jay it was almost simultaneously this, I believe it may have preceded it by a few days. I suspect is playing a role as well.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/j-j-vaccine-supply-disruption-481180
You can't spell pandemic without panic.
Seriously, if the medical professionals had foreseen the side effect and understood its etiology, then, even at the exact same rate of incidence and exactly the same severity, they would not have proposed withdrawing the vaccine. The fact that they did so shows that they were surprised. This is [part of] how science works, and the net upshot is further proof that near-as-makes-no-difference no one understands how science works.
'The fact that they did so shows that they were surprised. This is [part of] how science works, and the net upshot is further proof that near-as-makes-no-difference no one understands how science works.'
Of course we know how science works, as it clearly accounts for things just like this. The issue is not SCIENCE, that produced these near-miraculous vaccines, but the fact that the global crisis caused us to roll them out on an "emergency" basis- not fully tested. This is part of that gamble, and it was a very good gamble.
'further proof that near-as-makes-no-difference no one understands how science works.' That is an absurdd comment, and holds no truth.
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To these Mk I eyeballs, Moderna is following a trend begun well before the J&J announcement.
That said, immunologists likely don’t grok the emotional component in vaccines all that well...
None of this looks at the timing of those willing to get the vaccine having it, vs. those that are too stupid to do their civic duty. We always expected that drop off as Know-Nothing-Conservatism came into play, and the J&J pause just exacerbated that...
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