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Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: February 19 Update

Published on 22 Comments on Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: February 19 Update

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through February 19. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

22 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: February 19 Update”

  2. iamr4man

    Question for the day:
    Dr. Fauci and many others say that in order to fully achieve “herd immunity” 75% of the population needs to be vaccinated. And when I see articles regarding the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated it always appears that it is being measured by the total population. But about 25% of the population is under 18 and can’t get vaccinated because the vaccine isn’t approved for people under 18. So my question is “Does this mean that in order to achieve herd immunity the entire eligible population must get vaccinated or are they saying 75% of the eligible people must be vaccinated?”
    And it seems to me that when stating the percentage of the population that has received the vaccine we should be saying it by the percentage of eligible people, not total population.

    1. golack

      Good question. They are doing trials now for 12-17 years old kids.
      The reason for not saying "eligible" is because we changing requirements for vaccinations, and that would be confusing. Perhaps saying "adults", but then again, would you consider an 18 year old an adult?

      1. iamr4man

        If someone is 18 they can get married, have kids, go to war, and get their legs shot off so I guess they are an adult. Of course, if the married person with kids who went to war and got their legs shot off wants to have beer and pizza with their friends then they are not an adult.

  3. haddockbranzini

    Anyone have thoughts about the doctor from Johns Hopkins saying it's just going away? I think his theory is we've reached that herd immunity threshold with asymptomatic/unreported cases. Given that I can't get vaccinated until hopefully April, I'd like to think it is true...

    2. golack

      Have you heard of the Brazilian city Manaus?
      https://www.npr.org/2021/01/22/959567446/coronavirus-crisis-gets-even-worse-in-brazilian-amazon-city-of-manaus
      Two things--people are actually wearing masks and the winter storms really have interfered with testing and reporting. The numbers from TX have fallen off the map (cases and deaths).
      In states where the fall in number of cases has plateaued, it stops around 10 new cases/100K/day--on the low end of the high side.
      https://covidactnow.org/
      Yes, it's getting better. No, it's not just "going away". Maybe if people didn't let up on indoor dining, distancing, masking, etc., it could go away, ala New Zealand--but not likely in US.

    3. iamr4man

      I think it’s premature to say anything like “it’s going away”. As bear noted, our death rate is “down” to last May’s peak. If you look at the 7 day averages for last October we are still higher than in terms of new cases and deaths than we were then, and at that point the only person saying it was “going away” was Trump.
      I’m very glad that the number of cases and deaths is dropping from the highs that were likely caused by holiday gatherings. But we always knew those numbers would go down after the holidays. Since us olds are getting vaccinated, I do think the death numbers will be going down a lot. And, it seems likely that the people most likely to get the disease to serious result are getting vaccinated at a higher percentage rate. But people saying it’s “going away” will just discourage doing the things we need to be doing to actually make it “go away”.

      1. Midgard

        The death rate is going to keep going down. So its back to May, then it is lower than that a month from now. What then??? Its over. Just admit it and move on.

        This is a classic viral evolution as well, considering past Virus's. I am sure we will hear of outbreaks from time to time.

        2. iamr4man

          On July 5th last year, the 7 day moving average for deaths was 519. When it gets below that you can start claiming “it’s over”.
          I get it that you are trolling. This is my last time answering you. Hope you liked it.

    4. TheWesson

      That doctor estimates from deaths how many infections have occurred.

      So he thinks there have been a ton of infections already. Like almost 75% of the population.

      If you used a larger Infection Fatality Rate (like 1% instead of 0.25%) you would get a much different estimate of how much of the population has been infected. I think 1% is a better IFR.

      Judging from post-Christmas spike, the virus was having little trouble spreading in December ... implying a much lower % of the population being immunized by exposure.

        1. Midgard

          Waste of a post. Its spread throughout the population to a great degree. Its ok too admit that. It had no problem spreading through Christmas, but it also spreads to far, it burns itself out. Classic viral evolution. Just admit it, its ok.

  5. cld

    Wingnut mayor in Texas comes right out and tells constituents you're on your own, sucker,

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/17/texas-mayor-power-outages-colorado/

    . . . .
    “No one owes you [or] your family anything,” Tim Boyd wrote on Tuesday in a now-deleted Facebook post, according to KTXS and KTAB/KRBC. “I’m sick and tired of people looking for a damn handout!”
    . . . .
    “The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING!” he wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.

    Boyd suggested that residents without electricity should simply “step up and come up with a game plan.” Those without running water could either deal with it, or “think outside of the box to survive and supply water to your family.” He did not offer any further guidance, such as where safe drinking water or reliable electricity could be found.

    “Only the strong will survive and the weak will [perish],” he wrote.
    . . . .
    “Folks God has given us the tools to support ourselves in times like this,” he wrote, claiming that those who expected the city to come to their aid were “sadly a product of a socialist government.”
    . . . .

    1. Midgard

      He is a globalist stooge. Anti-American Zionism must die. Hear that Russia, Stewart Rhodes(Roth),Alex Jones and other lackeys who support it??

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