Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 23. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.
44 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 23 Update”
Comments are closed.
Cats, charts, and politics
Cats, charts, and politics
Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 23. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.
Comments are closed.
As there are more things in COVID and the World than are dreamt of in a Western Countries philosophy, one of my now-infrequent updates. This time untrimmed:
Rank Population (millions) Country Cumulative Deaths/Million
1 32.51 Peru 6006
2 9.68 Hungary 3100
3 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2931
4 10.69 Czechia 2839
5 2.08 North Macedonia 2635
6 7.00 Bulgaria 2599
7 211.05 Brazil 2598 *
8 50.34 Colombia 2348
9 44.78 Argentina 2308 *
10 5.46 Slovakia 2297
11 11.54 Belgium 2185
12 2.08 Slovenia 2129
13 60.55 Italy 2113 *
14 7.04 Paraguay 2058
15 4.13 Croatia 1996
16 37.89 Poland 1986
17 67.53 United Kingdom 1915 *
18 127.58 Mexico 1863 *
19 329.06 US 1856 *
20 18.95 Chile 1840
21 17.37 Ecuador 1771
22 19.36 Romania 1770
23 46.74 Spain 1738 *
24 65.13 France 1716 *
25 3.46 Uruguay 1708
26 10.23 Portugal 1688
27 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1679
28 444.97 EU 1644
29 2.76 Lithuania 1598
30 4.25 Panama 1585
31 2.96 Armenia 1548
32 11.69 Tunisia 1544
33 4.04 Moldova 1543
34 11.51 Bolivia 1527
35 10.04 Sweden 1460 *
36 4.00 Georgia 1415
37 1.91 Latvia 1337
38 8.59 Switzerland 1268 *
39 43.99 Ukraine 1257
40 1.81 Kosovo 1253
41 10.47 Greece 1228
42 8.96 Austria 1198
43 58.56 South Africa 1180
44 6.86 Lebanon 1151
45 83.52 Germany 1096 *
46 2.49 Namibia 1088
47 82.91 Iran 1065
48 17.10 Netherlands 1057
49 4.88 Ireland 1029
50 145.87 Russia 1027
51 10.10 Jordan 983
52 5.05 Costa Rica 977
53 1.33 Estonia 959
54 2.88 Albania 853
55 1.64 Bahrain 841
56 8.77 Serbia 809
57 9.75 Honduras 775
58 8.52 Israel 758
59 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 730
60 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 722
61 37.41 Canada 708 *
62 4.97 Oman 703
63 1.15 Eswatini 640
64 83.43 Turkey 609
65 2.30 Botswana 597
66 17.58 Guatemala 570
67 4.21 Kuwait 538
68 10.05 Azerbaijan 498
69 6.78 Libya 493
70 39.31 Iraq 462
* currently or formerly tracked by Kevin
Not a single Asian country on your list.
I assume you meant east or south Asian as there are some Asian middle eastern nations like Iran, Lebanon.
And positive nations like india would be well up on the list if they reported as thoroughly as more developed nations. And likely China too.
The next list Rick posted contains more east Asian nations so assume they will be working their way onto the cumulative list.
As I said, not a single Asian country. Thanks for emphasizing it.
The first Asian country on the list is Lebanon at #44. Then there's Iran at 47, Russia 50, Jordan 51, Bahrain 55, Israel 58, West Bank and Gaza 60, Oman 62, Turkey 64, Kuwait 67, Azerbaijan 68 and Iraq 70 So you're right; there isn't a single Asian country; there are 12 of them.
And for the "how have they been doing lately" files, the 7-day trailing average for deaths per day per million:
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 17.37 Ecuador 73.00 Equador appears to have done a very large (8786 deaths added, increasing their total by roughly 40%) catch-up dump for 7/20/2021 and it is still working its way through the 7-day average snake
2 2.49 Namibia 19.64
3 11.69 Tunisia 10.24
4 50.34 Colombia 8.10
5 44.78 Argentina 7.02 *
6 58.56 South Africa 6.56
7 7.04 Paraguay 6.55
8 2.30 Botswana 6.26
9 211.05 Brazil 5.38 *
10 145.87 Russia 5.24
11 11.33 Cuba 5.19
12 54.05 Burma 5.08
13 4.00 Georgia 5.00
14 270.63 Indonesia 4.86
15 31.95 Malaysia 4.43
16 14.65 Zimbabwe 4.30
17 18.95 Chile 4.27
18 1.15 Eswatini 4.23
19 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 3.69
20 18.55 Kazakhstan 2.93
21 82.91 Iran 2.55
22 11.51 Bolivia 2.49
23 9.75 Honduras 2.45
24 4.21 Kuwait 2.41
25 21.32 Sri Lanka 2.01
26 6.78 Libya 1.92
27 127.58 Mexico 1.80 *
28 3.46 Uruguay 1.73
29 1.18 Cyprus 1.70
30 5.05 Costa Rica 1.67
31 6.42 Kyrgyzstan 1.63
32 17.86 Zambia 1.59
33 3.23 Mongolia 1.55
34 39.31 Iraq 1.51
35 69.04 Thailand 1.47
36 16.49 Cambodia 1.47
37 4.25 Panama 1.41
38 38.04 Afghanistan 1.40
39 2.95 Jamaica 1.36
40 32.51 Peru 1.35
41 6.45 El Salvador 1.35
42 17.58 Guatemala 1.28
43 163.05 Bangladesh 1.21
44 2.13 Lesotho 1.21
45 9.45 Belarus 1.06
46 2.96 Armenia 1.01
47 10.23 Portugal 0.98
48 18.63 Malawi 0.97
49 12.63 Rwanda 0.88
50 67.53 United Kingdom 0.88 *
51 28.61 Nepal 0.86
52 329.06 US 0.83 *
53 10.10 Jordan 0.76
54 30.37 Mozambique 0.69
55 10.47 Greece 0.67
56 1366.42 India 0.67
57 4.04 Moldova 0.64
58 44.27 Uganda 0.64
59 83.43 Turkey 0.64
60 43.99 Ukraine 0.61
61 1.91 Latvia 0.60
62 108.12 Philippines 0.55
63 2.35 Gambia 0.55
64 7.00 Bulgaria 0.49
65 16.30 Senegal 0.48
66 28.52 Venezuela 0.47
67 11.26 Haiti 0.46
68 36.47 Morocco 0.43
69 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.39
70 43.05 Algeria 0.38
71 46.74 Spain 0.382 *
72 4.13 Croatia 0.380
73 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 0.379
74 8.77 Serbia 0.326
75 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 0.315
76 9.77 United Arab Emirates 0.307
77 444.97 EU 0.302
78 65.13 France 0.300 *
79 4.53 Mauritania 0.284
80 10.74 Dominican Republic 0.279
81 34.27 Saudi Arabia 0.279
82 5.46 Slovakia 0.262
83 2.76 Lithuania 0.259
84 83.52 Germany 0.251*
85 4.88 Ireland 0.234
86 52.57 Kenya 0.228
87 8.52 Israel 0.218
88 96.46 Vietnam 0.215
89 8.78 Papua New Guinea 0.212
90 60.55 Italy 0.203 *
91 37.41 Canada 0.179 *
92 1.64 Bahrain 0.174
93 10.05 Azerbaijan 0.171
94 10.69 Czechia 0.160
95 8.08 Togo 0.159
96 17.10 Netherlands 0.150
97 1.92 Guinea-Bissau 0.149
98 2.08 North Macedonia 0.137
99 32.98 Uzbekistan 0.130
100 6.86 Lebanon 0.125
101 3.50 Eritrea 0.123
102 1.20 Mauritius 0.119
103 216.57 Pakistan 0.118
104 19.36 Romania 0.118
105 37.89 Poland 0.113
106 31.83 Angola 0.112
107 12.77 Guinea 0.112
108 11.54 Belgium 0.099
109 126.86 Japan 0.093
110 9.32 Tajikistan 0.092
111 5.38 Norway 0.080
112 1.81 Kosovo 0.079
113 9.68 Hungary 0.074
114 7.82 Sierra Leone 0.073
115 10.04 Sweden 0.071 * (may be affected by their reporting cadence)
116 2.08 Slovenia 0.069
117 2.17 Gabon 0.066
118 28.83 Ghana 0.064
119 86.79 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.061
120 100.39 Egypt 0.055
For all the concern about Japan hosting the Olympics and their lack of vaccinations, legitimate by the way, they are still almost an order of magnitude better than the US. Amazing.
That said, the US still has to do more to help the rest of the world, as well as getting vaccines to areas with limited health care access--both in the US and abroad. Biden really does have to make a big show of it too. That way, some of the nut jobs will be offended that Biden is giving away their vaccine and demand injections now.
Vaccine clinics for MS13, the Nation of Islam, & Earth Liberation Front ought to do it.
A lobotomy clinic for you would definitely help us
Nah the Mongoose is 100% prime snark.
I don’t think the USA really compares to anyplace else except Brazil, India, and England where the government and/or ruling party is objectively pro virus. Japan made a number of tragic assumptions based on their insularity, mask wearing, and near obsessive cleanliness (which I personally applaud ). Other countries made similar misjudgments in terms of vaccine adoption based on cultural factors of vaccine hesitancy and early success at limiting contagion.
But only one country has the technology and the easy ability to eliminate the virus but is incapable of doing so because of the Murdoch media and the political timidity of the Democratic Party leadership.
Indeed, if only we were willing to bring ourselves to actually quarantine whole neighborhoods if not cities or even states, and have the state mandate vaccination no exceptions allowed.
All that pesky western liberal democracy nonsense...
And I rather doubt that the United States was the only country with the technology and ability to eliminate the virus. Certainly plenty of European countries had the wherewithal.
I’m think your idea of freedom is closer to the glibertarian ideal than to those of liberal democracy. Your personal freedom needs to be balanced with the needs of the others in society. There’s nothing in the vaccine mandates (which we’ve had for decades and which once covered nearly every schoolchild) or with limiting nonessential activities to those who have been vaccinated that is inconsistent with the principles of the liberal state or of this country in particular.
We used to mandate childhood vaxxxing for measles, mumps, & rubella -- born in 1980, I remember my MMR series being third grade, seventh grade, tenth grade, so ending around 1995 -- but sadly for the future fecundity* of the generational cohort(s) behind me, the previously limited religious exemption to vaxxx was widened so much that Yoga Moms & SovCit Militia Dads of Millenials & Zoomers were able to reduce vaxxx rates to under 50% in some areas.
*Not sure if it's mumps or rubella, but know that sterility in men is a possible outcome of infection. So Li'l Jimmy or Jayden better be ready at age 10 or 12 to know he'll never produce biological children when he's married twenty years on.
Riots in Australia and France over virus measures this past week...
Yes. And I say guck the lot of them. If they want to die, okay. But I sure don’t want them to take me with them. Exclude them from civil society until the pandemic has run out of hosts.
There are a lot of the countries down toward the bottom of the list that have weak, underfunded public health agencies. I'm not suggesting deliberate dishonesty, but many of those countries simply do not have the ability to collect reliable data about either covid cases or covid deaths.
For a more narrow look...
In FL it's Christmas in July--and not in a good way....
Cases still shooting up. And deaths are starting to follow. The death rate shouldn't be as bad this round as most of the elderly are fully vaccinated. It's just the rest of the population that's in trouble, especially the unvaccinated.
We're now at eight states above 25 new cases/day/100K, and their numbers are still climbing.
FL 48.7
AR 46.1
LA 41.3
MO 37.1
MS 30.6
NV 27.6
AK 26.7
AL 25.2
The only good news among these is that the MO caseload might be leveling off at ca. half their Christmas outbreak levels.
Golack,
I am wondering what you think about the reliability of the covidactnow R numbers.
I have been using them to some extent to try to figure things out but the way they jump around so much day to day per state makes me wonder if they are very useless and might be kind of garbage. I have been trying to see what assumptions might explain the different patterns between states but more and more I just am having a hard time explaining them.
I do notice that recently you have been posting more about current caseloads and not saying as much or anything about state's Rs like you used to do. Is this because you have concluded that those numbers or unreliable. Or maybe that looking at the R does not tell the story you want to tell as much ( bad fla?).
Because why the hell would massachusetts be # 1 in R for two days now, yes above fla?
Ma has much better vaccination rate. And natural immunity should be nearly as good as fla. Ma death rate is worse which would indicate more infections but maybe fla still had more infections but their strategy produced a far lower ifr. Seems likely but still seems no way that any fla as advantage in natural immunity should outweigh the ma advantage in vaccine.
And ma is more northern. And is stricter on restrictions.
Ma should have a much lower R than fla but not the case. In past weeks ma was below fla a lot but not by a huge amount.
Unless maybe you assume that delta really is even far more transmissible but way less virulent. Maybe delta causes a much higher multiple of actual cases vs. Confirmed cases but they are asymptomatic or mild so never noticed and tested and found. Maybe a factor like ten times more delta cases than confirmed. And ifr is maybe 20% of original covid.
That might explain some of the pattern we see. Fla R is already being significantly reduced by addtl natural immunity from delta cases, and they do then have total immunity higher then ma ( they are not as far along yet).
And this seems to fit other states and metro areas too to an extent. And helps explain why uk cases have already started down - they have reached herd immunity threshold already because almost everyone unvaccinated has already caught it. And India's cases came down quicker than they should have also without this assumption.
Seems very optimistic and do not want to get my hopes too high.
The CovidActNow R values are lagging indicators. You have to look at each individual state to get the current estimate for R. The R value is empirical and depends on number of cases reported--and by definition is a lagging indicator. They give a brief, and unsatisfying, description of how they calculate R on their site.
As for MA having a high R value even though high vax rate--sort of expected. The high R value is because they were starting with very low levels of infection: less than 1 new case/day/100K 3 to 4 weeks ago to 6 now. MA has a high vaccination rate, but 63% fully vaccinated is still 37% not vaccinated. Or 74% adults fulled vaccinated (from CDC site), so 26% of adults not vaccinated. Still, millions of people not vaccinated--and if mapped out, say by zip code, there will be areas with low vaccination numbers even in counties with high rates. the vaccination distribution is not even nor random. The R value now does seem to be leveling off if not starting to drop, but cases still going up.
The MO outbreak looks like it might be leveling off--just by eyeballing case numbers. It's calculated R is still on the high side and maybe just starting to drop too.
I basically use the R values as a general guide to what's happening. If I make comments about R values for a group of states, I'll double check at least some of them to see if the current trend in cases is consistent with the reported R value. I've stayed away from calculating values myself
As for natural immunity, it doesn't seem to last long. The poster child is Manaus, Brazil. That said, studies being reported now say that immunological memory does last:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063
Golack,
I do assume a lag but that itself does not explain the R jumping around so much. But maybe to some extent covidactnow not correctly adjusting for the lag in calculating their R might be an issue.
Assume the actual R in reallty is a stable 1.4 for a week. And the average lag from infection to confirmed case is 8 days. But that means that some %age of infections were only 2 days before test, some were 3 days, etc. And a few might have a month lag. If, in calculating R , you assume some spread in gap, instead of just assuming 8 days for all, you should get closer to real 1.4 R with less jumping around due to different gaps on different days.
On the issue of ma vs fla, I think maybe you miss the point. Maybe you can explain why ma has a high R by discounting natural immunity by saying it goes away, but that makes it HARDER to explain why ma R can be higher than fla. Ma obviously has more vaccine immunity. Whether ma or fla has more natural immunity is not clearly known ( based on known deaths, it should be ma). Other things being equal, the R should be inversely correlated with the net remaining effective non immunity in the population. If for example, vaccine immunity was 100% and natural zero, and ma was 70% vaccinated whole fla was 40%, fla should have exactly twice the R. Right?
So any discounting of natural immunity does not explain the difference, or makes it harder to explain.
You mention low case counts as an explanation of high R as if that was obvious. But actually should expect the opposite with delta. When counts start low, should mean more likely that delta has not yet taking over. Still in the phase where alpha going down offsets some of delta going up so overall R is lower ( though delta R still high). It is when delta has taken over to the max ( maybe 90% of cases) when R should peak, and then go down slowly as immunity increases naturally. It should not start high when cases are low.
But it sure does seem like many of the " too high to explain " outliers" are low case laggards for the recent wave.
I gave one possibility. That delta spreads faster and has infected more than we think. So then the effect of increased natural immunity is going to bite well before delta finishes taking over. And fla is already on it's way to hers immunity. Basically that Fla does have enough natural immunity from recent infections to fully offset ma advantage in vaccine immunity. Note that theorizing that any immunity expires quickly after a year supports this. Ma natural immunity concentrate more from over a year ago with their big blow up while fla has a lot from infections in last few months.
But another theory. Say there is a small number- maybe 5% of population- that have some sort of genetic inherent immunity to original and alpha covid. No matter what they do , how exposed they are, their innate immune system shrugs it off and they never get infected or infectious.
Maybe they have been taking zero precautions for a year with no infection and not lucky just good immune system.
Now delta comes along . Say it's mutation nullifies whatever gave these people that inherent immunity. And largely two groups of uninfected unvacinated left . One is the inherently immune to original who have not been more cautious. The other is those who by lifestyle or caution, just make it more difficult for a virus to get. They mask all the time. They live alone and have few friends to visit.
That first group is now easy prey for delta..second group it will largely get but slower. So R starts real high while delta first gets there as it just eats up that no longer lucky small group. When it starts running out of them, R does down. So delta is running out of first group in fla but not yet ma.
Vaccines give off false positives. I think by the fall that will be clear. Stop testing the vaccinated.
Spades,
You have said this before. But do you have anything to base this on?
I have wondered myself. Since the idea of the mnra vaccine is to trick the body into producing a part of the virus ( but not the whole virus) , the key is if the covid test reacts that piece of the virus.
If it does so react , and this being vaccinated alone will cause a positive test sometimes, then your point would be valid. But is it true?
I have read that it is not true. But, like you I assume, I am quite skeptical of what the " experts " say and a possible agenda and do not just accept it as correct.
So I tend to try to see if some logical deduction can help me assess this.
If vaccinations cause a positive test, then that effect should be concentrated soon after vaccination when the vaccine has tricked the body into producing the virus fragment but should disappear after the body immune system responds with antibodies knocking out those virus fragments.
So then the false positive vaccine effect should produce the highest numbers when vaccinations per day are the highest ( like in April) but less today when vaccination numbers are lower.
So your theory could be consistent with high case numbers by itself but seems contradicted by the case number trend over time.
Also seems inconsistent with the fact that delta has increased so much as a % of cases where they actually examined for the virus.
There is no evidence that vaccination causes false positives in the antigen or PCR tests. It doesn't make any sense that it would, since the tests are looking for things that are not related to any part of the vaccine itself, nor any product of the vaccine.
Both kinds of tests look for the presence of one of the virus's capsid proteins (antigen) or a portion of the sequence that codes for that protein (PCR). The vaccines, on the other hand, contain a portion of the sequence that codes for one of the virus's spike proteins, either DNA (J&J, AstraZeneca) or RNA (Moderna, Pfizer).
Of course, both kinds of tests do produce false positives, but for reasons not related to the vaccine.
Everything you say they screen for, vaccines mimmick. It explains the asymptomatic vaccinated to a T.
Thanks for your explanation and I assume you know what you are talking about.
However, after searching on the internet, what I found was an explanation different than yours. Still answer no but I interpret the explanation as really, almost always no.
I found nothing talking about difference in capsid and spike proteins, which is what you say and just feels to me more likely.
What I found were a few articles which seemed to say that the RNA the vaccine uses is unstable and decays in a few hours ,but does seem to imply that that RNA would trigger a positive. So I interpret that as meaning the vaccine could trigger a positive test, but maybe only within half a day maybe of getting the vaccine. And why would someone get tested hours after getting vaccinated?
And the other explanation seemed to say that the proteins that the vaccine triggers to be produced are not expressed in the upper respiratory tract where you are tested. To me, I cannot believe they would never ever find their way to upper respiratory tract, so I would at best say a false positive would be super rare- too rare to be meaningful. But that explanation implies that the protein itself would trigger the test and your explanation does not.
So somewhat confused. But, like I said, the pattern of growth we see and its timing is totally inconsistent with the vaccine causing any significant number of positive tests.
So have to believe that some answer is correct and I bet on yours. It just sounds like a real researched understanding answer and does not sound like something anyone made up to my ear.
If you actually did make up a bullshit explanation, I want you on my team for that game where you try to make up realistic sounding definitions for obscure words. 🙂
My prior post was resounding to Steve and had not seen spades.
Spades,
You do understand that Steve was saying that what the vaccine mimic is the spike protein and the capsid protein is what the test is screening for. So exactly contrary to what you say.
So your post is not using any sort of logical argument , it is just flat saying that steve is factually wrong.
Although I cannot say who is right here for sure ( as neither of you gives a source and what I found is not the same as what steve says), one of you is clearly just plain wrong.
And I would think the one responding to a reply saying that prior post was flat factually wrong has more responsibility to back it up. Can you?
And also would note that just because the vaccine might actually mimic everything the test looks for does not mean false positives would be significant. The alternative explanation is that what it mimics goes away real quickly.
I had a test post vaccine and it was negative.
Huge surge in my area right now. We are hospitalizing people at a rate similar to the fall surge, although average age much lower than before.
Local vaccination rate around 45%. Our vaccine resisters are about 50% fox news and 50% hippies-with-broadband. Access to vaccines not an issue at all.
Same as it ever was.
Antivaxxxia has never been partisan, though in some states where one bend of the horseshoe predominates, AV numbers there may reflect a stronger pull in one direction than other.
Ergo, California & Vermont Antivaxxx is more left than right, but Idaho & New Hampshire more right than left. Michigan, Montana, & Oregon are more typical of the country in being among our more heavily vaxxx-abjuring but damn near a 50-50 Nader or Hagelin voter left, Buchanan voter right split.
(Washington State I would put more recently on the trending Antivaxxx-MAGA area, but not quite to Gem or Granite State level.)
Why are people not getting vaccinated and what strategies might convince some of them ? Some thoughts largely informed by civil discussions with unvaccinated.
Many seem to want to think that the unvaccinated are evil people who enjoy infecting other people. Really not true . If there are a few of those sociopaths, I have not met them.
Actual issues are;
A) they just have a different belief than you might as to the risk of covid ( or even whether it is real), whether vaccines are actually effective or how much, what the risk of the vaccines are, etc.
Some might be exactly the type of person who would want to help the community - say a true Christian- but they sincerely believe that getting vaccinated has no benefit to the community, whether that belief makes sense or not.
B) of the above category, they might fall into two groups. One has perhaps incorrect beliefs ( although there is always some chance however small that they are right and you are wrong) but what they believe is based on some sort of logic- perhaps with incorrect assumptions. This group is potentially convinceable but might be hard or fairly easy.
The other group might be ones that believe things like the vaccines magnetize you or that covid is totally fake. It is likely a waste of time trying to convince them without some form of incentive or coercion. Logic is not part of their personality. And this group cuts across both liberals and conservatives.
C) some might be making a totally rational choice for themselves personally that the cost of getting vaccinated ( side effects and possible future problems) outweighs the benefits as their covid risk is so low. For younger people, I do think this may very well be correct and trying to argue with them otherwise is pointless. At best the facts are unclear here.
But , the cost / benefit analysis for entire community or just family and friends seems overwhelming that vaccine is worth it at any age. A young person might correctly conclude that the personal negatives of getting vaccinated are a bit higher than personal negatives of possibly catching covid, but add in benefits to others, and anyone who cares at all about others should get vaccinated.
So why don't they? Are they all just selfish bastards?
Hard to believe maybe, but many have just not thought of the concept that their actions also affect others. How can they be that dense? But they are, although still decent caring people. Once you can nicely discuss this, especially by focusing on their own family, you might change a mind.
D) do not underestimate how little some know and how little they are paying attention. Some still are not aware of what delta is or even have not heard of it. Again hard to believe from our perspective but lots of people are not like you.
E) I would say that actual access issues are just not a viable reason anymore for the vast majority. Maybe some isolated rural places but not in urban areas. Most places you can now get vaccinated in half an hour at the local drugstore or grocery store. Unless you never go to a store what is you excuse?
The real possible small issue that could include race or class disparities is fear of side effects and worry that, if you get sick with side effects a few days, you cannot afford to miss work or maybe you are a single parent.
E) fear of normal vaccine side effects is a large issue, perhaps more than fear of those unusual but more serious vaccines issues. If you are young and feel that if you get covid very likely will be no worse than a cold ( or no symptoms) then worry about cold like vaccine side effects is rational.
But there is a gross overestimate of the chance of getting side effects. Many seem to think that almost everyone gets side effects from the vaccine whole actually most do not.
F) the herd effect is real. I have been told numerous times that main reason someone is not vaccinated is just that " none of my friends and family are". Which first makes no sense as a reason. And means that there are likely key persons in a social group. Get them and others will fall like dominoes.
G) do not underestimate simple lazy procrastination. They do think vaccination is a good idea and say they will . Tomorrow. But something always comes up instrad.
Actual reason for all unvaccinated people: rampant stupidity
More politely stated, Dunning-Kruger all up in this bitch. Where "this bitch" means MURICA.
All those reasons relieve me of any responsibility or concern for their welfare. It’s really time to just forget about them.
I assume you are replying to me as Dee reason that all is stupidity would be exactly what should not cause you to just " forget" about them and have no concern for them. You would have to be really heartless to condemn someone for making a mistake because they are just not smart enough. Or because they are just too busy struggling with a job and kids to pay attention.
Have some sympathy at least. Now as to responsibility, yes I can see that. At some point not much you can do to help, especially if no way to convince. But many people still might be open and, if they can be reached by the right argument, are you really just happy to let them get covid if you just might help prevent it?
I am not giving up on trying to get more vaccinated. Even if cannot " get enough", every one you can get is one less case in the end imo.
But I do concede at this point that we are not stopping covid until we get to herd immunity and likely mostly through infection and natural immunity. So, in the end, anyone not getting vaccinated is likely only hurting them selves and their own family and friends and not others in the community very much ( then catching covid and getting naturally immune should be about the same contribution to herd inmunity).
And I would say, if you refuse to get vaccinated, better and more moral to accept the risk and go out and party and thus get covid. Rather than isolate and try to be the " free rider" on others creating the herd immunity. The only person I talked to not getting vaccinated that I was really upset with explained quite clearly that this was her strategy. When they do come out of hiding at the time cases drop, they will just give the virus fresh targets, drop us back below herd immunity, and drag this out.
That is the one group of resistors, the ones deliberately pursuing that cynical strategy, that I fully condemn. And that attitude is more an issue with the general measles, etc. vaccine resistors than for covid.
Yes I was replying to you.
My current job involves making one of the vaccines. I’m providing the path out of this pandemic catastrophe every single day. But I have to admit that my patience with the resistance has been exhausted. In some small way I’ve sacrificed to make this possible and so I have little use for these excuse. That’s where I’m coming from.
I can understand the frustration and impatience.
And I get the feeling that you actually do still care and are not as callous or mean spirited as you sound sometimes .
If you are still helping out making vaccines, you are still trying to help in some way.
I understand venting anger but, in the end, that just brings you down and puts you in a bad place. If you try to understand and emphasize with why some are vaccine resistant, it will help you not be angry and hateful. Much healthier for you.
If that is too difficult, maybe focus on a smaller group that deserves the contempt. As I said to me that might be the small group that has a better understanding of the issues and just were trying a " free rider" strategy where others take the risk of the vaccine and they still get the benefit of herd immunity. Still.stupid but also just plain immoral.
Or focus on the good you can still do making vaccines. Maybe does not do much here as plenty supply for usa, but each extra dose is one more we can export and get it under control abroad too. And help usa indirectly if lowers the chance of another variant.
Which one?
I’m not bothered by the resistance anymore. I simply have no interest in putting up with their nonsense. It doesn’t get me down to see thousands of unvaccinated people from Missouri etc. getting sick. It’s rather amusing up to a point, then tragic if they pass on I suppose. But I’m all done giving a hoot.
“Why they hell is it, Sargent writes, that “from voting rights to covid-19 to the legacy of Jan. 6 — we’re being told these voters are afflicted with a deeply fragile belief system that must be carefully ministered to and humored to an extraordinary degree”?
Why must we take their conspiracy theories more seriously than those of 2004? Or not confront their vaccine reluctance “too aggressively … lest they feel shamed and retreat into their anti-vax epistemological shells”? They of the Fuck Your Feelings tee shirts.”
Indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/unvaccinated-different-anti-vax/619523/
It's. Not. Just. Fox.
The Most Influential Spreader of Coronavirus Misinformation Online
Researchers and regulators say Joseph Mercola, an osteopathic physician, creates and profits from misleading claims about Covid-19 vaccines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/technology/joseph-mercola-coronavirus-misinformation-online.html?smid=tw-share
Dr. Mercola has built a vast operation to push natural health cures, disseminate anti-vaccination content and profit from all of it, said researchers who have studied his network. In 2017, he filed an affidavit claiming his net worth was “in excess of $100 million.”
...
His audience is substantial. Dr. Mercola’s official English-language Facebook page has over 1.7 million followers, while his Spanish-language page has 1 million followers. The Times also found 17 other Facebook pages that appeared to be run by him or were closely connected to his businesses. On Twitter, he has nearly 300,000 followers, plus nearly 400,000 on YouTube.
As a guy I used to know once said:
"Victims? Don't be melodramatic. Look down there. Tell me. Would you really feel any pity if one of those dots stopped moving forever? If I offered you twenty thousand pounds for every dot that stopped, would you really, old man, tell me to keep my money, or would you calculate how many dots you could afford to spare? Free of income tax, old man. Free of income tax - the only way you can save money nowadays."
Americans fail again. This is part of a pattern should you choose to look further.
In Afghanistan, through ignorance and arrogance, compounded by an unwillingness to face facts when victory proved elusive, the world’s self-proclaimed sole superpower bit off way more than it could chew.
We owe it to those who served and sacrificed to openly acknowledge the causes of our failure. Only then can we guard against their repetition elsewhere.
Sound familiar?
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/23/dont-let-the-generals-dictate-the-wars-legacy-make-them-answer-for-it/
It is called Return on Investment. ZERO!
The recognition that America will never recover its Sunk Costs in Afghanistan.
I think what is not discussed enough with respect to Afghanistan is the geopolitical situation.
Compare it to Iraq. First iraq is simply a more important nation to the usa. Outside of stupidly sponsoring terrorism before 9/11, what happens in Afghanistan makes little or no real difference to American interests. Iraq matters more.
Yes, we want to support human rights and would rather prefer a decent govt and not the oppressive dictators like the Taliban. But really our actual national interst is limited to making sure they do not do anything like sponsor 9/11. Once you " teach a lesson " by thrashing the ones who did , so that any future govt will realize that it is not a good idea to anger the usa, you have accomplished that goal. Nation building is nice if possible but in no way anything really useful to actual us interests.
And the idea of building a real working democratic republic in a culture like Afghanistan was always unrealistic short term. That would be a generations long project.
In iraq, the idea of nation building, if we used our resources more intelligently, was at least conceivable. It had a chance to work. Iraq has a long civilized history and concepts like democracy not as culturally alien to the culture. And the enemy we went to war against, in iraq, was fundamentally just a as****e bully who ruled by fear and did not endanger any deep loyalty from the people. Plus in the end he was pretty stupid. You might not like the Taliban but they have deep ideological roots and loyalty in Afghanistan. And they are seriously tough fighters.
And one huge difference is geographic location. Iraq is bordered by the gulf where we can deploy the navy and fly in over international waters. And we have fairly dependable allies like Kuwait and Saudis Arabia to use as bases.
Afganistan is landlocked and we depend on not so friendly powers for access. After 9/11, we used Pakistan but that was only possible as they were scared and intimidated by an aroused fairly United usa and thought we might invade them if needed. Once the fear dissipates, after anti war protests ramped up and especially after bin laden was killed, Pakistan was just giving nominal cooperation. At that point, it really was just no longer strategically viable.