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Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 13 Update

Published on 17 Comments on Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 13 Update

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through March 13. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

17 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 13 Update”

  1. golack

    Italy is back under lockdown.

    In US, there is concern about variants in NY area.
    NY, NJ and RI still at 30+ new cases/day/100K. CT, sandwiched in between, is holding at 21, and is doing better at vaccinations.

    NM dropped below 10 new cases/day/100K, joining HI, PR, OR, WA, WI, WY, CA and KS. Not every state reports numbers on Sunday, so expect a few more falling below 10 on Monday.

    CA is doing rather well now in terms of cases and hospitalization. Deaths are still high, but dropping fast.

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      I see Puerto Rico in there, but are the other territories (Guam, U.S. Virgins, Marianas) doing similarly or better?

      1. golack

        CovidActNow reports on the Northern Marianas Islands too (0.8 new cases per day/100K on average, population ca. 108K.
        Worldometer gives some daily numbers, e.g. active cases (not new daily cases)
        Guam 32 (pop. ca. 169K) est. 3 new cases/day/100K; total deaths: 133
        US Virgin Islands 89 (pop. ca. 104K) est. 10 new cases/day/100K; deaths: 25
        American Samoa 0 (pop. ca. 55K) no current cases, total cases 3, total deaths 0.
        Northern Marianas Islands: total deaths: 2

          2. golack

            Planning a vacation? Don't have vaccination rates for the islands. Not sure how many of the cases were military personnel and how many were from the local population.

    2. Midgard

      Variants are irrelevant. None of the so called "cases" are translating to hospitalization which tells me the data is having some issues.

      1. golack

        Vaccinations of vulnerable populations will drop hospitalizations and deaths before have large effect on cases. However more cases will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths, but it will be in the unvaccinated demographics which overall will be less vulnerable--so still more deaths then there would have been w/out variants even if overall death count still falling. However, still have increased risks of cases taking off--and that still has a chance of overwhelming the hospital system.

    3. Mitch Guthman

      France also is or soon will be locked down again. The French situation is emblematic of why Europe is struggling—rather than closing bars and indoor dining and requiring a mask mandate, they vacillate allowing the number of cases to grow to crisis proportion. Then then close bars and indoor dining (but also, bizarrely, parks and beaches) but reopen too soon. They vacillate some more and then close down again in a haphazard fashion, which allow the number of cases to again become a crisis.

      This seems to be the pattern almost everywhere in Europe and the UA except for the American states who are objectively pro-covid 19. Vacillate about masks and indoor dining, then reopen way too soon.

  2. rick_jones

    The Guardian is referring to what is happening in Europe as a Third Wave: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/14/third-covid-wave-sweeps-across-eu-and-forces-new-restrictions and showing case upticks not only in Italy but in France and Germany too.

    Meanwhile, in something of an "America First" response, the Biden Administration has announced it will not let AstraZeneca ship doses stockpiled in the US to Europe... even though that particular vaccine does not yet have emergency use authorization in the US. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/542988-white-house-rejects-requests-to-send-millions-of

    1. golack

      I really hope they can work out a deal to let those doses go. I guess the fear is that if they could sell those doses elsewhere, they may slow walk the phase 3 trials here and/or never apply for EUA. Of course, politically, FOX would have a field day.

      That said, finishing the trial, submission and approval will take weeks if not a month or more--and, unless it's approved for children, won't be needed. But if they want to maintain the stockpile, they could "refresh it". Let AstraZeneca ship out 50 or 100 million doses now--to be replenished by new production. Of course it would be better if some of that went to poorer countries.

    2. Midgard

      Outside the Paris region, not leading to a uptick in hospitalizations though. This is the problem using "cases" as a metric. Govs. need to take note.

      1. Mitch Guthman

        I don't think that's correct. In many way, cases is a more important metric now that we've got the vaccines. Remember, every new cases is a new opportunity for the virus to make a random error in replicating itself; which means that every new case is a random chance of a new strain that the existing vaccines won't protect against.

        1. Midgard

          How??? Cases distort who is getting it and who is not. Paris sector outside of Italy is the only rising in hospitalization. I mean, if you can't get that, shame on you. Mostly because they are antivax countries who's "liberal's are the complete opposite of U.S. Liberals. Old people don't care and are getting sick.

          1. Mitch Guthman

            I don’t understand the point you are making. Perhaps we are talking at cross purposes. My point is that everyone should be pulling out all the stops to reduce cases to as close to zero as possible because each time the virus replicates there’s a risk of something going wrong in terms of a mutation against which the vaccines are ineffective.

            There the correct thing to which attention must be paid is the number of cases and not hospitalizations or death. We need to vigorously suppress the virus and get as much of the world’s population vaccinated as quickly as possible.

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