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5 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 20 Update”

  1. golack

    Not much change--and weekend reporting in effect.
    If you look at county heat maps, e.g. CovidActNow, you can strings of hot spots down the middle of the country, MN to west TX. Not along an interstate--so maybe meatpacking plants? There is also a line from south TX and LA (along the Gulf Coast), up to Atlanta and into SC. There is also an offshoot along the western Appalachians and into WV. There is also a spread out of NY and NJ plus spread out of MI. And maybe some spread out of SD and MN. Should note that numbers in Detroit have been trailing the rest of the state, i.e. this outbreak did not start there.

    In rural areas, there seems to be sharper changes between counties when looking at rates. Only a few infections will drive the numbers.

  2. cld

    High vitamin D levels may protect against COVID-19, especially for Black people,

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-03/uocm-hvd031721.php

    The study, published March 19 in JAMA Open Network, retrospectively examined the relationship between vitamin D levels and likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19. While levels of 30 ng/ml or more are usually considered "sufficient," the authors found that Black individuals who had levels of 30 to 40 ng/ml had a 2.64 times higher risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than people with levels of 40 ng/ml or greater. Statistically significant associations of vitamin D levels with COVID-19 risk were not found in white people. The study looked at data from over 3,000 patients at UChicago Medicine who had had their vitamin D levels tested within 14 days before a COVID-19 test.
    . . .
    This research is an expansion of an earlier study showing that a vitamin D deficiency (less than 20 ng/ml) may raise the risk of testing positive for COVID-19. In the current study, those results were further supported, finding that individuals with a vitamin D deficiency had a 7.2% chance of testing positive for the virus. A separate study recently found that over 80% of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were vitamin D deficient.
    . . . .
    "There's a lot of literature on vitamin D. Most of it has been focused on bone health, which is where the current standards for sufficient vitamin D levels come from," Meltzer explained. "But there's also some evidence that vitamin D might improve immune function and decrease inflammation. So far, the data has been relatively inconclusive. Based on these results, we think that earlier studies may have given doses that were too low to have much of an effect on the immune system, even if they were sufficient for bone health. It may be that different levels of vitamin D are adequate for different functions."
    . . .
    While vitamin D supplements are relatively safe to take, excessive consumption of vitamin D supplements is associated with hypercalcemia, a condition in which calcium builds up in the blood stream and causes nausea, vomiting, weakness, and frequent urination. If left unchecked, it can further lead to bone pain and kidney stones.

    "Currently, the adult recommended dietary allowance for vitamin D is 600 to 800 international units (IUs) per day," said Meltzer. "The National Academy of Medicine has said that taking up to 4,000 IUs per day is safe for the vast majority of people, and risk of hypercalcemia increases at levels over 10,000 IUs per day."
    . . . .

  3. rick_jones

    Globally through March 20, 2021 per Johns Hopkins' repository. Includes the Top Ten worst, Kevin's current nations, and his "forgotten" ones from earlier points in the pandemic. I've left the bracketing countries in place for comparison purposes :

    Rank Population (millions) Country Cumulative Deaths/Million
    1 10.69 Czechia 2295
    2 11.54 Belgium 1963
    3 2.08 Slovenia 1908
    4 67.53 United Kingdom 1871 *
    5 9.68 Hungary 1866
    6 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1749
    7 60.55 Italy 1728 *
    8 7.00 Bulgaria 1709
    9 2.08 North Macedonia 1655
    10 329.06 US 1647 *
    11 5.46 Slovakia 1645
    12 10.23 Portugal 1639
    13 46.74 Spain 1560 *
    14 127.58 Mexico 1551 *
    15 32.51 Peru 1535
    16 4.25 Panama 1423
    17 65.13 France 1414 *
    18 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1397
    19 4.13 Croatia 1393
    20 211.05 Brazil 1387 *
    21 444.97 EU 1325
    22 10.04 Sweden 1321 *
    23 37.89 Poland 1297
    24 2.76 Lithuania 1255
    25 50.34 Colombia 1230
    26 44.78 Argentina 1217 *
    27 8.59 Switzerland 1188 *
    28 18.95 Chile 1170
    ...
    39 4.00 Georgia 923
    40 83.52 Germany 895 *
    41 58.56 South Africa 889
    ...
    49 145.87 Russia 638
    50 37.41 Canada 605 *
    51 1.33 Estonia 588

    Same for the 7-day per-day-per-millions:
    Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million
    1 10.69 Czechia 19.34
    2 9.68 Hungary 18.85
    3 7.00 Bulgaria 14.94
    4 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.15
    5 5.46 Slovakia 14.08
    6 211.05 Brazil 10.59 *
    7 2.08 North Macedonia 10.15
    8 4.04 Moldova 8.37
    9 6.86 Lebanon 7.94
    10 37.89 Poland 7.88
    11 1.33 Estonia 7.54
    12 10.10 Jordan 7.11
    13 60.55 Italy 6.51 *
    14 32.51 Peru 5.42
    ...
    26 2.76 Lithuania 3.88
    27 65.13 France 3.82 *
    28 2.96 Armenia 3.82
    29 127.58 Mexico 3.74 *
    30 8.77 Serbia 3.35
    31 329.06 US 3.30 *
    32 3.46 Uruguay 3.22
    ...
    37 11.54 Belgium 2.84
    38 44.78 Argentina 2.78 *
    39 2.08 Slovenia 2.61
    40 50.34 Colombia 2.44
    41 83.52 Germany 2.29 *
    42 2.30 Botswana 2.11
    43 11.69 Tunisia 2.04
    44 58.56 South Africa 2.00
    45 46.74 Spain 1.99 *
    46 2.49 Namibia 1.95
    ...
    52 4.21 Kuwait 1.70
    53 23.77 Sweden 1.65 *
    54 8.59 Switzerland 1.58 *
    55 8.52 Israel 1.58
    ...
    58 9.75 Honduras 1.45
    59 67.53 United Kingdom 1.39 *
    60 11.51 Bolivia 1.33
    ...
    68 10.05 Azerbaijan 0.90
    69 37.41 Canada 0.80 *
    70 10.74 Dominican Republic 0.74

  4. rick_jones

    In the Good Ol'e You Ess of Aaaaay!

    Rank State Cumulative Deaths/million State Cumulative Deaths State 7-Day Trailing Deaths/Million/Day
    1 New Jersey 2717 California 57435 Kentucky 24.11
    2 New York 2539 New York 49401 West Virginia 6.46
    3 Rhode Island 2450 Texas 47298 Ohio 5.72
    4 Massachusetts 2442 Florida 32713 Texas 4.59
    5 Mississippi 2337 Pennsylvania 24783 Massachusetts 4.52
    6 Arizona 2299 New Jersey 24134 Georgia 4.22
    7 Connecticut 2197 Illinois 23329 New York 4.05
    8 South Dakota 2173 Georgia 18530 New Jersey 3.96
    9 Louisiana 2149 Ohio 18339 Louisiana 3.90
    10 Alabama 2128 Michigan 16906 Rhode Island 3.78
    11 North Dakota 1958 Massachusetts 16832 Arkansas 3.69
    12 Pennsylvania 1936 Arizona 16733 Arizona 3.67
    13 Indiana 1920 Indiana 12926 California 3.65
    14 New Mexico 1855 North Carolina 11820 Florida 3.25
    15 Illinois 1841 Tennessee 11709 Delaware 3.23
    16 Arkansas 1833 Alabama 10436 Alabama 3.18
    17 Iowa 1798 Virginia 10104 Oklahoma 3.14
    18 Georgia 1745 Louisiana 9988 Pennsylvania 3.05
    19 South Carolina 1744 South Carolina 8977 South Carolina 2.97
    20 Tennessee 1715 Missouri 8713 Montana 2.94
    21 Michigan 1693 Maryland 8158 Maryland 2.84
    22 Nevada 1679 Connecticut 7832 Mississippi 2.83
    23 Kansas 1647 Wisconsin 7240 Connecticut 2.68
    24 Texas 1631 Mississippi 6955 New Mexico 2.66
    25 Ohio 1569 Minnesota 6845 Nevada 2.50
    26 Delaware 1567 Colorado 6068 Idaho 2.48
    27 Florida 1523 Kentucky 5720 South Dakota 2.10
    28 District of Columbia 1486 Iowa 5674 Virginia 1.99
    29 California 1454 Arkansas 5533 Michigan 1.96
    30 West Virginia 1451 Washington 5174 New Hampshire 1.89
    31 Maryland 1349 Nevada 5171 Iowa 1.86
    32 Montana 1323 Kansas 4798 District of Columbia 1.82
    33 Missouri 1315 Oklahoma 4788 North Carolina 1.76
    34 Kentucky 1280 New Mexico 3889 Utah 1.74
    35 Wisconsin 1243 West Virginia 2600 Indiana 1.70
    36 Minnesota 1214 Rhode Island 2595 Illinois 1.58
    37 Oklahoma 1210 Oregon 2362 Wisconsin 1.52
    38 Wyoming 1197 Nebraska 2135 Tennessee 1.46
    39 Virginia 1184 Puerto Rico 2096 Oregon 1.35
    40 North Carolina 1127 Utah 2060 Vermont 1.14
    41 Nebraska 1104 Idaho 1941 Missouri 1.14
    42 Idaho 1086 South Dakota 1922 Kansas 0.98
    43 Colorado 1054 Delaware 1526 Washington 0.96
    44 New Hampshire 895 North Dakota 1492 Minnesota 0.91
    45 Guam 816 Montana 1414 Guam 0.87
    46 Washington 679 New Hampshire 1217 Colorado 0.79
    47 Utah 643 District of Columbia 1049 Alaska 0.78
    48 Oregon 560 Maine 728 North Dakota 0.75
    49 Puerto Rico 558 Wyoming 693 Puerto Rico 0.72
    50 Maine 542 Hawaii 452 Nebraska 0.59
    51 Alaska 424 Alaska 310 Wyoming 0.49
    52 Vermont 351 Vermont 219 Maine 0.43
    53 Hawaii 319 Guam 134 Hawaii 0.30
    54 Virgin Islands 233 Virgin Islands 25 American Samoa 0.00
    55 Northern Mariana Islands 36 Northern Mariana Islands 2 Northern Mariana Islands 0.00
    56 American Samoa 0 American Samoa 0 Virgin Islands 0.00

    1. rick_jones

      And for the intra-California bashing, while California's overall 7-day trailing average is 3.65/million/day, the NorCal/SoCal split is:

      SoCal 4.68
      NorCal 2.07

      Going "interstate" NYS is at 4.05 with NYC at 6.9 and LAC at 4.68.

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