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8 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 20 Update”

  3. akapneogy

    In the US, the percent decrease in mortality rates has been trailing the percent decrease in case rates for many weeks now. Any idea why?

    1. Jerry O'Brien

      For one thing, there's a three-week average lag between case reports and death reports. Cases weren't dropping until five weeks ago, and deaths started dropping fairly quickly two weeks ago—on schedule.

      But the age distribution of unvaccinated people must have done some shifting around, too, first in the direction of younger people while mostly older folks were getting their shots, and then back in the direction of am older unvaccinated crowd after young people got their chance to get vaccinated. Those changes move the death rate around relative to case rate.

      It's also possible that a more deadly variant has been gaining ground. It's still dangerous to be an unvaccinated person.

  4. golack

    As far as new cases goes, still getting better. CO was leading, but now has dropped to #3 at 15 new cases/day/100K. MI is #1 and ME #2, both ca. 16--a new low.

    Six states now have infection rates above 1, and all have vaccination at/below 38%:
    WY, MS, AL, LA, ID, AK. Right now, only WY has new case rate >10, at ca. 15.
    TN only state with vaccinations below 38% and infection rate below 1.

    Down to only two states below 35% vaccinated: MI and LA. Still at 20 states plus DC above 50%.

    Largest Metro areas (CovidActNow) above 50% vaccinated: NY, LA and Chicago. Next ones, Dallas and Houston around 41-43%.
    Atlanta the lowest in the top 10 in population at 34%.

  5. golack

    Ok, so I'll repost this tomorrow too:
    Crude "days to 70%" uisng CovidActNow data on first dose vaccination levels. Use past 10 days to determine daily rate of change, difference from 70%, and then divide to get # of days needed to get to 70% vaccinated. Yes, this is crude--just hoping some else with access to more data can do a better job.
    For the largest states:
    State cases/100K %vac. days to 70%
    CA 3.3 54.1% 64
    TX 6.7 41.9% 134
    FL 13.2 46.6% 102
    NY 8.5 52.8% 69
    PA 11.3 55.7% 48

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