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13 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 25 Update”

    1. iamr4man

      It’s weird to think that with a few exceptions people who are getting Covid now are more or less doing just that.

  2. George Salt

    I've been puzzled by the slow decline in deaths, relative to the number of new cases. An article in the WashPost might explain why:

    "As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in some places, the virus continues to rage among those who haven’t received a shot."

    "… But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment."

    "In the United States, the current case rate for unvaccinated residents is similar to the case rate for all residents on April 29."

    "… The adjusted rates in several states show the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge. Maine, Colorado, Michigan and Washington state all have covid-19 case spikes among the unvaccinated, with adjusted rates about double the adjusted national rate. The adjusted rates of Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania are slightly lower."

    "The unseen covid-19 risk for unvaccinated people"
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/covid-rates-unvaccinated-people/?itid=hp-top-table-main-0430b

    In other words, the pandemic is still raging among the unvaccinated. As the unvaccinated become a minority, the covid will probably become an unseen pandemic, like the ongoing pandemic of drug overdose deaths.

    1. Special Newb

      Then as kdrum suggest lets focus our efforts on getting vaccines and info to the non-culty, and let the republicans choose to die.

    2. Jerry O'Brien

      I don't know how long the disease will continue to spread at the rate it has been among unvaccinated people. I would expect the rate to go down because the average infected person is now encountering fewer susceptible people to spread the virus to.

      But I can say that the decline in death rates does match the decline in new cases, as long as you figure in a three-week lag. The decline in cases over the 28-day period between April 6th and May 4th was about 25%, and the decline in deaths for the corresponding 28 days between April 27th and May 25th was about 27%.

    3. akapneogy

      The vaccination rate is relatively low among the more susceptible population, so the apparent mortality rate has been pushed higher?

    4. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      Michigan (militias & farright Dutch nationalist Christians), Washington (homeopaths & militias), Colorado (yoga moms & granola ass hippies) are all principal or adjacent to Antivaxxxia. & Maine, based on Susan Collins's (alleged) 59% vote tally in the 2020 election, is just generally more than cantankerous enough to join the first three in pissing in the face of SCIENCE!

  3. golack

    Days to 70% vaccinated (1st dose, total population using #'s from CovidActNow which I think does not include J&J in first dose--so slight over estimate, 10 day average for the rate/day).
    CA 48
    TX 107
    FL 81
    NY 52
    PA 43
    low vaccination states, e.g.:
    GA 208
    AL 286

    Vaccination rates have increased for CA, TX, FL, NY. Stayed about the same for PA and GA. Slowed for AL. I'm guessing vaccinations available for children is mainly responsible for the bump up in rates.
    The White House goal is for 70% vaccinated, first dose, adults only by July 1st. I'd guess CA, NY and PA will make it, TX will not and FL will be on the cusp. And just forget about GA and AL. I mean, do try to improve vaccination rates there, but set realistic targets for those states. Maybe the federal gov't will need to work directly with NGO's too if they are not doing that already.

    1. HokieAnnie

      I saw on the news that the vaccination rates for teenagers in Ohio shot up when Ohio added a college scholarship lottery in addition to the vax lottery for adults over 18. I love that idea, maybe the kids are more reachable than the grownups. Even better some states including DC allow teenagers to get vaccines without requiring parental permission.

    2. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      Even after Ronny D joined Kay Ivey & Wheels in signing vaxxx passport proscriptions into law, Florida bucks their governor & accepts the Bill Gates Tracking Device into their lives. Is this a sign of De Santis weakness in advance of 2024. GQP presidential primary?

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