As we all know, the two centerpieces of the $1.9 billion rescue bill are checks for everyone and bonus payments for those collecting unemployment benefits. However, the bill has lots of other things in it, all of them aimed at specific groups. For example:
- People with kids ($120 billion in child tax credits)
- People using Obamacare ($34 billion in increased subsidies)
- Airline employees ($58 billion bailout means that furloughs were avoided)
- Food service workers ($25 billion in grants to restaurants)
- Organized labor ($86 billion bailout of failing union pension funds)
- Teachers ($130 billion to help schools reopen)
- Veterans ($20 billion for veterans' healthcare)
If your goal is to stimulate the economy, it doesn't matter all that much where the money goes. You just want to get money into the economy quickly. This leaves plenty of room to make sure that you spread the benefits around so that you have lots of grateful registered voters when the next election rolls around.
That's how this bill works. It accomplishes three things. First, it spends lots of money so that the economy will be humming when the 2022 elections are held. Second, it provides lots of money for programs specific to COVID-19 recovery. This will ensure that the pandemic is long past by next November. Third, it provides big, targeted benefits to specific groups who can be reminded of them during campaign season.
Will it work? Who knows. But its goal is very clearly to do well by doing good—and in this case, "well" means increasing the Democratic majority in the next Congress. From my perch it sure looks like it's primed to succeed.
Getting whiplash here...
Today's posts are kind of a schizophrenic "Biden's agenda is over and the Democrats have to accept losses from now on" and "The Democrats are poised to win big in 2022", your logic is basically internally consistent but it still seems like there's an inherent contradiction in there.
That was my impression too. Including the one about the filibuster which seemed particularly incoherent.
No contradiction. Kevin is saying: A) Democrat will get little or nothing enacted after the Rescue America Plan, but B) it's big enough and well-designed enough to help them 18 months from now.
I expect he's right.
Does anyone more knowledgeable than I know if the increased Obamacare subsidies are just to relieve the "subsidy cliff" at 400% above the poverty line, or will it also increase subsidies across the board?
I've had friends bump into that subsidy cliff and it absolutely needs to be fixed … but also my own 2021 subsidy is the skimpiest it's been in years (at roughly the same income) and I wouldn't turn away from a bit of an adjustment. ^.^
Another good question … Will the new subsidies be for 2022 or will they somehow recalculate the subsidies for this year? Hmm.
I understand the 400% FPL cap is gone, AND subsidies for all income groups has increased.
It seems the extra subsidy cap has been increased from 138% FPL to 150% FPL. This is the one that gives almost zero premium (silver) polices.
The subsidy level for 150% FPL and above has been increased, from one based around 10% of income to one based around 8.5% of income. So it's not a massive change for those folk, but it's something.
The subsidies apply for 2 years. 2021 and 2022.
Thanks! I guess I'll see if my Silver monthly premium magically changes after this month. 🙂
You missed the $5 billion for black/socially disadvantaged farmers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/08/reparations-black-farmers-stimulus/
That is part in the low income farmers, but the bulk of money goes to white farmers at the appropriate level.
Obama saved the American auto industry.
Auto workers went for Trump.
KD would say Obama failed to brag about it enough. And that is probably accurate. If Trump had saved the auto industry he would never shut up about it.
Auto workers voted for Obama in 2012. Only 28% voted for Romney.
Slightly more voted for Trump in 2016. Estimates are 33-35%.
Biden evidently clawed some of those back. About 30% voted for Trump in 2020.
I didn't know those numbers. They are quite remarkable given the Trump propaganda that said that Dems and their fuel efficiency rules rules were hostile to the auto industry. I would have expected more workers to fall for that. But apparently the majority of autoworkers is ok with building electric cars--so long as they are building cars.
I probably should have mentioned those numbers are from Michigan based on UAW surveys. I don't know what the numbers are for auto workers nationally.
Well this is just the kind of obvious, non- Savvy conclusion one might infer from stuff like history and data, but anyone who knows anything knows that visibly improving people’s lives and making sure to claim due credit for it is history the way
Oh screw this interface. Enable an edit function please.
@bbleh
I feel your pain. I have delivered a simple solution to the webmaster, but I guess he doesn't like it. Or maybe this old WordPress theme doesn't support it.
This theme supports a variety of stuff including Intelligent Debate, which worked reasonably well at Same Facts.
Can we take Romney up on his idea of changing the child tax credit to a direct payment? I think this might be the best, most important poverty fighting policy of all time if we make the payments high enough and I'd make a lot of trades to make this happen. More tax cuts for billionaires? You got it. Reagan's face on 10 dollar bill? Done deal. Trump's bloated head added to Mt. Rushmore? I'm on board.
Direct subsidies to parents would probably, among other things, do more to improve educational results among the poor than any amount of twiddling with school policy would ever achieve. We need to make this happen!
It's fine. One problem is he wants to eliminate all other forms of aid, which is problematic. But the biggest hurdle is he wants to link it to e-verify. While e-v is a terrible policy, the main problem is Dems are hoping to use the e-v carrot to get Republicans to vote for Immigration Reform. If e-v is given in exchange for childcare, that makes Immigration Reform even less likely to pass.
Why is e-v a terrible policy? If a green card is to mean anything, employers should be required to ensure that an applicant is eligible to work in this country. Also, can you cite any developed economy that doesn't require non-citizens to obtain a work permit?
That said, we have a large population of undocumented workers here, who ought to be grandfathered pending consideration of their applications for legal permission to work, which should be expedited.
Because it's a bureaucratic hurdle that doesn't solve a problem. Immigration enforcement is not the job of an employer. Or landlord. Or bank manager. Or utility company. And given that no bureaucratic system that covers 300+ million people is perfect it's likely to hurt significant numbers of people. Not only is it an unncessary burden it literally helps no one.
^^Can we take Romney up on his idea of changing the child tax credit to a direct payment?^^
But I thought the Biden version CAN be taken as a direct, check in the mail payment.
Am I wrong on that?
If you want to stimulate the economy, it definitely matters where the money goes. It has to go to people who will put it into circulation, not to someone who will put it in a bank in the Cayman Islands.
Yes, the idea that "it doesn't matter all that much where the money goes" is remarkably silly but actually the bill seems to be carefully designed to really put money where it is needed to prevent failures or into the hands of lower-income people who will spend it or put themselves in a better position in terms of debt. A major problem of the 2009 stimulus was that a lot of it was in tax cuts which did not help people who had lost their jobs, for example. Aid was promised to people whose mortgages were underwater and actually allocated, but was never delivered. This time a lot of money is being delivered directly and immediately to lower-income people, who will not only be grateful (hopefully) but will spend most of it. Biden seems to have some economic advisors (or maybe some are in Congress) who are much better than the crew of neoliberals who were ascendant in the Obama administration.
I for one am happy to see Larry Summers carping from the sidelines. And mostly being ignored.
^^^who are much better than the crew of neoliberals who were ascendant in the Obama administration.^^^
Even Obama-era neoliberals can't have failed to be educated by what happened in that era (excessive desire to placate Republicans, GOP intransigence, inadequate overall economic support, tragic political outcomes, etc), right?
The Great Recession was a significant slowdown for my wife and I.
Covid not so much. We had a record breaking year by a lot and 2021 looks just as good.
Real estate. Go figure.
typo: "the $1.9 billion rescue bill"
This post reminds me of the farmer who sells his corn before it is even planted. Any bad weather can upend such a deal.
If the polls are encouraging around late summer next year I'll sign on to this.