More charts! And there are more to come. Today was busy. First up is disposable income, which is basically income minus taxes:
Adjusted for inflation, DPI was up a healthy 4.5% last month on an annualized basis. For the entire past year it was up 1.9%. We're still below our pre-pandemic growth rate, but maybe starting to catch up?
Anyway, for you and me this is good news. For the Fed, maybe not.
That graph really shows the hardship we experienced under Covid. And how it was over by 2022. In spite of inflation, by 2022, disposable income was above trend.
Which is why I really don't fathom the "it's inflation stupid" argument about this year's elections worldwide, let alone in the US.
No, by 2022 real disposable income had gone distinctly below trend (red line). Comparing with nominal disposable income (FRED:DSPI) the one-time hit in 2022 was due to inflation.
So this particular measure does tend to support the idea that inflation hurt, in a way; of course it did. Nevertheless, since income continued to increase, on the basis of real personal income people are still distinctly better off than they were before 2020 in the Trump administration. That is things are more affordable now (or were just before the election). Furthermore people got a bigger temporary boost from the stimulus than from the drop due to inflation. Aren't they grateful for all the stuff they bought then?
Of course this is average and includes the income of rich people.
The whole "people are struggling and Democrats don't care" narrative was bullshit, but it worked because everybody always thinks they should have more money & stuff. They also tend to think that somebody else - blacks, immigrants, etc - is getting more free money & stuff.
Not so long ago really, it was common for experts and not experts in the press to shake their heads at how both the economy and workers did better by far under Democrats but voters seemed not to get this. This year was instead all about taking the old white man in the street seriously, which of course Democrats never do.
It suits progressive who'd like a more socialist economic program and centrists who hate the culture wars. But mostly I think it's just taking seriously these days any right-wing allegation.
Democrats should take credit for the Biden economic powerhouse he and the Democrats built.
Don't care it that is true, just like in the previous posting on inflation ticking up, when I suggested to blame Trump. Truth doesn't seem to matter anymore, just blame the other side for any bad news and take credit for anything positive.
November 5th is proof that this works.