Donald Trump might be the luckiest guy in the world. First off, in a single day he (a) was elected president of the United States, (b) escaped all of his criminal prosecutions, and (c) made several billion dollars from his now valuable holdings of Truth Social. He's also accomplished all of his promises:
He says he'll beat inflation, and it's already beaten. Last quarter it clocked in at 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. It was at 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.
He says he'll rein in illegal immigration, and it's already reined in. What's more, job demand has plummeted so pressure on the border will remain low.
He says he wants Israel to giddy up and finish off the war, and it's already winding down of its own accord because there are only so many Palestinians you can kill. It's likely to be over within his first year.
He says he'll turbocharge the economy, and it's already turbocharged. In the latest quarter, real GDP grew 2.8% and is now an astonishing 2.6% above potential GDP. That's the highest it's been in half a century.
He says he'll cut imports from China, and they've already been cut. Last year imports of goods from China came to 1.28% of GDP, the lowest in 20 years.
He says he'll get interest rates down, and they're already coming down. The Fed cut rates by half a point in September and has already promised more cuts to come.
He says he'll produce more oil and gas, and both are already at the highest levels in American history.
He says he'll get crime down, and it's already down because it never went up in the first place. The one thing that did go up was murder, and so far in 2024 it's plummeted to 4.4 per 100,000, the lowest rate in more than 40 years.
There's really not much left for Trump to do. All he has to do is not bollix things up.
Gosh, when you put it that way, why does everyone seem so concerned?
/s
I hope you are right.
If things go this well then Vance in 2028 is a shoo in!
The guy with the personality of a baked potato? A very dishonest, disingenuous and unethical potato. Keep thinking that. The only person worse than Trump is the toady that once called Trump Americas Hitler but now kisses up to him like he's the second coming of Christ. MAGAtards are so damned stupid. Oh, and this is what a cousin said about him. "Terra Vance, who identified herself as a cousin, later told the Los Angeles Times that Vance had “cosplayed a hillbilly” and that his targeting of “marginalized groups” was “what has always been done to us”." This country just voted for two of the most fake people that ever ran for POTUS and V.P.
He needs to grope some women and pick up some felony convictions to be a viable GOP nominee.
Wanted to add a video to cheer everyone up!
https://x.com/TAftermath2020/status/1854053963630616820
Xitter? lol. I'd rather open an email from a Nigerian prince than click on a Xitter link.
He inherited a healthy, growing economy last time and managed to bollix it up. Why would you think he won't do it again?
But Trump taking credit for the hard work of a black man is pretty on brand, I think.
Kevin posted about this yesterday and it's all I can hold my hat on at this point. Trump, throughout his life, has mismanaged about everything he put his hands on. I'm not sure what the next crisis is but I hope Americans weather it and perhaps see what most on the left saw in 2020.
His supporters won't. It's a cult. Dear leader can do no wrong. They'll deflect blame to anyone else. Of course he'll never take responsibility, he never has in his entire life.
Yes but not everyone who voted for him Tuesday is part of the cult
Cult members or cult sympathizers, is there really a distinction? Not all Germans were card carrying enthusiastic antisemites. Non rejection of Trumps cult by voting for him is a good sign you're affiliated with it to some extent.
So it is a tall order for him after all…
😄😄😄
With these charts, it seems like the Democrats should have run a 1984-style "It's Morning in America" campaign. Except that it would seem (at least these days) to take a propaganda arm, or at least an accommodating MSM, that they simply don't have. Instead, it would have been insensitive and "out of touch" under our actual media conditions.
Conversely, if those same charts were from a Republican presidency term, then Fox News et al. would be all over saying how great things are and actually be able to do a "Morning in America" campaign without a problem. And probalby would win in a landslide.
I have heard Democrats are terrible at politicking but great at governing. The Republicans' are vice versa. I think there is a grain of truth there.
Twice he inherited a good economy. This time he won't be restrained by people much better than himself. He'll be surrounded by the scum of the earth and we will all be victims of his unbridled and unchecked stupidity. Fun times!
Wow, he’s already accomplished so much. Just like last time when he brought the unemployment level down from 40% to 5.5% before he even took office.
Aye, there's the rub.
but bollixing? things up is what he does best
The only iffy thing I can see in Kevin's reasoning here is its connection to actual evidence in the real world. That's never been anything the incoming huckster-in-chief has cared about so far. Why would he change now?
Oh?
Well what about the Ukraine war? In his debate with Biden, Trump said he'd have that "settled" before Inauguration Day. He's got 74 more days to get it done.
Tick, tock, big guy.
Easy peasy. Exec order cutting off all aid to Ukraine; slap tarriffs on Euro imports of X% and threaten to increase them to 2X% unless Europe also stops all aid to Ukraine. Russia offers cease-fire terms along what Vance discussed; Zelensky dies from an unfortunate case of "food" poisoning and his successor signs terms in a ceremony while commenting (in russian) about how NATO's warmongering has levied a terrible toll in terms of the lives of Novorussian civilians.
Nytimes runs headlines about how "Dealmaker-in-Chief Achieves Peace!"
He’s going to be under a certain amount of pressure to at least try to implement some of his economic promises. That’s highly likely to mean higher rates and/or inflation.
Don’t worry. He’ll fix it. His banners said si. …. Oh boy will he fix it. More like “fix” it. You won’t recognize the country by the time he’s done.
Trump won't fix shit. The only thing he fixed was evading the consequences of his convictions. Congratulations Trump voters, here's the double standard you've been complaining about. Rich people will almost always escape accountability. This time all it cost Trump was your vote.
I see that my usual vote for Inkblot failed to result in victory.
Those are great graphics...I see now that our essential error was not hiring Kevin out to the Harris campaign! (this was a serious post)
The problem with the great graphics is that they would be followed up by "neutral" MSM stories showing how terrible things really are. My favorite was a story following one of the good job reports that showcased 3 people who were having difficulty finding a job.
I'm in mind of comments about history rhyming.
In 1968, after LBJ withdrew from consideration, Humphrey was nominated without any real primary challenge. His biggest problem was he could not separate himself from LBJ. He declared his campaign was about the politics of joy.
Nixon won.
In 1972, McGovern was fighting for an end to the war. Some pols today apparently get help from KGB disinformation. Nixon won handily but not without engaging in the Watergate breakin.
If only the liberals had paid attention to the issue of _(insert your favorite)____.
As evidenced in this election, people dont really care much about these issues...
And the real problem, the only problem that Trump spoke to were the fears of angry white dudes. This boogeyman wont be beaten so easily (lol, thats not the point!). And it will always be the fault of those scary people over there....
Tom Nichols has an excellent piece at The Atantic today (behind a paywall... sorry) making exactly this point.
Also, the premise behind your opening sentence is right on target. Scanning the articles out there now on "what went wrong?" is a cosmic exercise in Choose Your Own Adventure.
Agreed--I've been hearing/reading all manner of claims as to what went wrong (Biden should have dropped out earlier! Harris should have talked more/less about fascism! Harris alienated her base by not being forceful enough on Gaza/being friendly with Liz Cheney!), and it's all too easy to conclude, before data is in, that our preferred emotional reaction is the Correct Lesson.
The exit polling crosstab that I've found most fascinating is that previously undecided people broke more and more heavily for Trump the later in the election they made their decision.* Why this might be, I can't fathom, but it squares with how things tightened later in the race, and at least in my mind undercuts the argument that Harris would have won if Biden had dropped out earlier.
________
*or at least, so they say.
Nowhere to go but down.
Anyway, as usual in American politics since 1980, the Democrats hand off a good economy to the Republicans, who then proceed to destroy it.
and with Trump there is no bottom
I spent the last year going to two different churches. Both progressive, but one upscale and about 99% white and the other working class and about 50% black. The upscale folks preached on transgender rights, police brutality, climate change, and women's right to choose. The working class church when they discussed contemporary issues, mostly talked about inflation and crime in the context of the gospel. They would announce pride events or earth justice but these were not focal. To me, the problem Democrats have had for a long time is that they have been disconnected from everyday people. We are also afflicted with extremist nutjobs who no one will stand up to. My clarifying example was from the same uber liberal church when after George Floyd one of the congregants stood and ragged on cops and implied only psychopaths want to be cops. Everyone sat in silence. I have a brother-in-law (he's black), who at the time was contemplating quitting the force because of all the shit he was taking after George Floyd. So I said something to the effect that this was ridiculous and we should not generalize to a whole group of public servants, because yes, there are shitty cops, but generalizing about all of them is wrong. Boy did she take offense to that and later a friend said it sounded like I was 'mansplaining'. At that moment, I thought 'we are fucked' and have thought it ever since.
Surveys have shown that there are quite a lot of young black and Latino men who would like to become cops, but a major factor holding them back is the fear of being ostracized by their own family and friends. This is a major factor explaining why police departments across the US are struggling to fill their ranks. Your working-class church may not have talked about this as much, but they absolutely are aware of this.
Things did not reach this point overnight, nor just because of George Floyd. There is a very long track record here. Remember, if a shitty cop does something terrible, but then the entire department closes ranks to protect him from accountability, then you don't just have a shitty cop. You have a shitty police department.
People like to say it's just a few bad apples but seemingly forget the age old proverb, "one bad apple spoils the whole barrel."
Why are the people in the second church everyday people but the people in the first church are not, and why is it the responsibility of the people in the first church to shut up about important things they're right about but not the responsibility of the people in the second church to join hands with the people in the first?
Also you are just straight up wrong about it being wrong to generalize about cops. It is as legitimate to generalize about them as to generalize about, say, Republicans.
"you are just straight up wrong about it being wrong to generalize about cops"
Exactly! We don't want their votes and probably don't even need them.
Mission accomplished! The country does not need you anymore. The strife is over; the battle done. And so, like Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus, we can all go back to our simple lives.
Take the win. Congratulations on a job well done.
He is luckier still that Democrats failed to take any credit for the above by running away from Bidenomics and sniping Joe instead of supporting him.
Now what have they got for a message?
I understand that everyone has their own opinions on how the Biden/Harris campaign should have been run, but for the life of me, I'll never understand how they completely ceded the economic narrative to the Trump campaign.
Unemployment has been incredibly low! Stock markets have been setting multiple all-time highs! Gas prices are actually not all that bad! Inflation has been steadily decreasing! If you don't trumpet this stuff from the rooftops, it might not get through all of the other noise. Instead, all I saw in local TV ads were some vague promises to "reduce prices" and go after "price-gougers" in a theoretical future administration.
The stock market one in particular bugs me (lots of normal, everyday folk have 401ks, mine has been doing fantastic the past couple of years). If this had been a Republican presidency, you'd be hearing about the record setting performance non-stop (and I imagine that we will now that one will be back in office).
The economic narrative was in charge of the media. The MSM continually ran pieces trying to validate how people's bad "vibes" about the economy were justified, and of course the right-wing media just credited Trump's lies.
What skeptonomist said.
I too wish there had been more of an effort trumpeting the lowest unemployment rate in memory, real growth in wages and purchasing power, etc. But when people are complaining about rising prices, which they can see and feel in the pocketbook, there's nothing to gained by trying to explain to them that the economy is actually much better than they think it is. I'm afraid it was always a no-win situation.
Every pundit now has an explanation for Trump's win. These cover a very wide range of ideas, but if there is a consensus it is that the economy was the main issue for voters. That's what they answer in polls or in interviews, since bigotry is not normally an option (and they aren't honest about it if asked). Voters also list immigration, so I guess they are worried about how low the price of produce is kept by immigrant labor - if this concern is not due to racism.
But Kevin has the right idea about all the supposed problems, including the economy. It is a very straightforward prediction that most of the economic anxiety that pundits babble about and that supposedly increased up to election day will have disappeared by the time Trump is sworn in, if it has not already gone.
Nothing will change but their need for retribution will have been satisfied. Higher prices will be accepted now. If only begrudgingly.
What about the very obvious problem that should be staring you in the face. Misogyny. Twice the Democratic Party have nominated a well credentialed woman against a very poor male candidate, and twice they have lost. Do you think that is just coincidence?
That's a good point, and one worth remembering. Trump beat both Clinton and Harris, so we should feel free to refer to Trump as a "woman-beater."
For example, in this line it works well: President-Elect Trump, noted woman-beater, selected his SCOTUS nominees on the basis of their opposition to abortion rights.
But I think it could and should be applied in other contexts, too.
The temptation of the pundit class is to give Trump advice on how to fix what he's broken. Resist brothers and sisters.
For the next two years (until the midterms), you cannot tell him how to fix things, you can only rail on how horrible of a mess he's made and how Republicans botched everything at his urging.
Don't let your ego get the better of you. When that journalist asks you how he should fix it, your retort is simple: He should know; he has all the best people and he said he was smart. Didn't he go to Wharton? Isn't he a billionaire?
And when the journalist asks rhetorically if you have a heart, you respond: Of course I do, but a majority of Americans said they rejected our advice and leadership so who are we to advise on how to fix this mess? Look, just live your life as best you can and when the proper time comes, make better choices.
You can't save people from making bad choices and you can't save everyone from the consequences of their actions. When you step in, you prevent them from connecting the dots between their choices and the outcomes. Be a tiny bit Libertarian for just this one time.
Yessssss.
The Dems should sit back and figuratively speaking disconnect their car from Trumps inevitable run away train. Let the GOP defend their Dear Leader alone. Unfortunately the MSM will do most of the heavy lifting of defending Trump themselves.
I dont think libertarians like accountability. For everyone else sure. Not so much for themselves. Much like conservatives.
I agree completely with Kevin that most of the supposed issues that Trump complains about are phony. But we know Trump always lies, don't we?
But I don't see that trade is not a problem. The trade deficit appears to be about as high as it's ever been:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEABC
China is not the only country we import from. Of course the Biden administration actually took steps to address the problem, with subsidies and other things to get critical manufacturing going again. Biden and other leaders (in Europe) are proposing stiff tariffs on Chinese electric cars. This is when tariffs can be effective, that is before before prices go down.
Will Trump actually address the trade problem in a constructive way? This is doubtful - he obviously has no understanding of tariffs. The question may be whether the big money interests think they can do better with reviving manufacturing in the US with subsidies - if Republicans pass them, or by continuing with production in China and other places.
He's like a bull in a China shop. He's too ignorant to do anything effectively but he'll sure make a mess of things.
The problem with Trump's tariff policy -- aside from the fact that it will result in higher prices for everyone, natch -- is that it's not a well thought-out economic policy. It's a manipulative threat designed to get other countries to bribe him or otherwise offer some kind of corrupt "deal" in order to be exempted, regardless of whether it's good for the larger economy or trade policy. What will it be? Big new Trump Tower in their capital city? A regal state reception with belly dancers waving ostrich feather fans around his throne-like seat of honor? People think he's some kind of rich guy who can't be bought. The problem is, he's the cheapest whore on the corner and nothing more.
"All he has to do is not bollix things up."
He WILL bollix things up. Remember, almost every crisis the Trump Administration had to deal with last time around was of their own making.
I genuinely hope that we don't experience another Covid-19 like event. His leadership skills are practically non existent. Besides he would probably delegate any responsibility to someone like RFK Jr, Elon Musk or worse.
He will create crises intentionally, because it will give him excuses to "be strong", i.e be cruel to other people.
Trump -- and especially the people he hires or favors -- are absolutely going to bollix things up. None of these categories has any place to go but a worse place. Tweak one thing (and I'm certain they can't resist that, because it was a 'change' election) and whole mess'll crumple like a kleenex.
I think in four years we will mostly be looking at the Biden admin as the good old days, while Rs are still blaming Dems for everything.
His main goal of avoiding the consequences of the crimes he's been convicted of has been achieved. He may just ride out his presidency not caring about anything. He'll leave that to the crackpots in his administration. He's already told a reporter to stop asking about abortion. You know as if it's not an issue anymore. To him it probably never was. Just another thing to manipulate people with.
This.
He doesn't need to worry about reelection. We may get a more relaxed, blasé President Trump this time. That might well be a bad thing, because he'll have little incentive to rein in the instincts of some of the crazier cranks he'll have working for him.
Can you cite any examples of Trump exercising oversight over his underlings during his first term, in any case other than those that impacted him personally?
As we speak I guarantee they're trying to think of ways around the 22nd Amendment. In reality, he may need to worry more about the 25th.
I wonder if Trump's second administration will be as disorganized and chaotic as the first one? I think that it will, but that the ideologues will know how to flatter and cajole Trump as well as to act behind his back, and that their social conservative "fixes" will alienate a great many voters, perhaps as early as the mid-term elections. Those of us who live in blue states will enjoy a degree of protection from their attempts to install white, Christian nationalism as the nation's sole creed.
I think it's guaranteed that this time it'll be far worse. But it'll be the people in his administration that will be responsible for it. With or without his direct knowledge. He's a useful tool domestically as well as internationally.
"I wonder if Trump's second administration will be as disorganized and chaotic as the first one?"
In the first term:
1) Trump was worried about impeachment.
2) He expected to run again and win.
So he was trying to keep things more or less ok. That is why initially at least he got sane people in most positions.
In this term neither is true anymore, and he will not even try to do anything right.
Plus he now knows that he basically immune from prosecution for anything thanks to last year's SCOTUS decision. It's going to be four years of a criminal clown car cavalcade. The country wants to fuck around, apparently. It's gonna find out.
and suddenly R's will start answering polling questions honestly regarding the Economy.....
Trump was born on 3rd base and thought he hit a home run. White privilege is real
I saw this comment on a friend's mournful Facebook post: "It’s so surprising how different the people on the other political aisle of me think because for me personally, I’m ecstatic! I can’t wait to afford groceries again and pay less in taxes."
So -- remember that Trump must not only get rid of further inflation, but also *bring prices back down to where they were.* That's not going to be as easy.
I was just going to write something similar. They literally think there's some dial on the president's desk labeled "higher prices/lower prices" that he can fiddle with as he likes. But Trump can't lower prices because that's not how anything works.
What he can do -- and perhaps Biden should have tried something similar if he had known what it would cost him -- is bully and threaten food manufacturers, grocery distributors and the major corporate grocery chains to lower their prices now or else he'd bring all sorts of taxes, bad publicity and regulatory hell down on them. That would have probably led a couple of them to loudly advertise how they were lowering all their prices 20% or something.
The electorate was pissed about high food prices and high housing prices. Trump can crow all he wants about having fixed those things, but my moneys on him not being able to do a damn thing about any of it. Some of his base will be mollified by Fox or the rightwing media echochamber claiming otherwise, but people, as we've found out, notice that shit in real life.
I don't use social media other than IG to share pictures and short thoughts but people that do need to hammer home everyday that he is failing to bring prices down. EVERYDAY!
It won't make a damn bit of difference. The eight buck Happy Meal that seemed so outrageously high when Biden was president will be seen as reasonable now that the God Emperor is back in charge.