Over the weekend I happened to post a chart showing e-commerce revenue as a percentage of all retail sales, but it only went through the end of last year. Today brings us the latest data, which goes through March of this year:
It's continuing to level out, and that's even before the Great Unmasking, which only started in May. This strikes me as evidence that, generally speaking, people want to get back to their old habits, rather than sticking to those learned during the pandemic. Within a few months, people will be using e-commerce at about the same level they would have if the pandemic had never happened.
Yabbut that doesn't mean that Inflation Monster isn't coming to EET US IN OUR BEDZ!! We can't afford to take the risk!! We must CUT UI NOW!! And also cut taxes on jaaaab creeeaatorrrzz! It's the only way to be sure*!!
(* that the static assets of wealthy rentiers don't decline a few percent in real terms)
UI was always going to be shrunk by summer. But considering 3 million jobs have been created since February......your Point is dead.
I suppose most people will want to return to shopping in stores just as before.
Personally, I have always hated shopping in stores. I tried in the early days of the internet to live by the motto "If they don't sell it on line, I don't need it." That wasn't viable back then. But as online commerce grew, I was able to avoid store shopping more and more. The pandemic was, in this respect, my dream come true, as all sorts of things that previously one had to go to stores for, could now be bought on line and delivered, if not to my house, then to my car at curbside. I'm pretty sure I have not set foot in a store since March 2020. I'm hoping I'll be able to keep that up as long as I live.
I'm really surprised. I remember cutting short our vacation last March, driving home, thinking how this thing was going to kill in-person retail. I would be glad to be wrong.
Nah, I'm not going back.
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I disagree, Kevin. I've been researching e-commerce vs. real stores and the real estate wizards are busy converting all kinds and sizes of retail centers to other uses. They don't whimsically alter assets that extensively without serious consideration. Shopping malls have been dying for years. Think how many have disappeared just around us here in OC,
I will probably be in the car parked next to Clyde's, picking up my groceries, clothes and hardware. Teenagers and fashionistas will still prowl the shops, but during the lockdowns many adults were delighted not to have to go into stores. E-commerce was unlikely to continue at the rates experienced when we were scared to leave our houses and had no good options, (the growth rate suddenly doubled from 15% to 34% annually) but we have changed economically and as a society.
Stores turned into showrooms only--ok, maybe with pickup and return windows too.
The cardboard box industry will take a big hit. Perhaps apparel sales will increase? I haven't bought new clothing in well over a year, because I like to see how it looks on me, and changing rooms are still off limits. For that matter, I suspect that many people have, shall we say "changed shape"? And need better looking clothing that fits? (It's called the COVID 19...)
Of course this doesn't take into account the many, many businesses that have closed permanently.
I still remember the meeting back in 1995 where a consultant with a UK arm of AT&Ts computer business told me "the High Street will be dead in 7 years." That was also about the same time my colleagues in our SF office did an ad citing the deep mining revelation that men buying beer had a high propensity to also buy baby's diapers. And I was still hearing that same example 15 years later...
Unlike Work From Home, a more-or-less return to pre-pandemic normal is quite plausible here, particularly given that pre-pandemic normal was in fact a steady secular increase.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were a 1 or 2 percent ratcheting effect, on top of the previous growth pattern, but even that may smooth out over time.
A lot of folks still *like* shopping in person. A heck of a lot more than like showing up to the office every day...