This morning the BEA announced that real GDP growth in Q1 was actually 1.3%, not 1.6%. This isn't great news, but it's only one quarter and probably isn't that meaningful. However, they also released GDI figures, and the mysterious gap between GDP and GDI has disappeared for the second quarter in a row. Both estimates of economic growth now agree with each other:
The average of real GDP and GDI was 1.4% in the first quarter. This might—might—mean the Fed's interest rate hikes are finally slowing the economy.
But it's still only a single quarter and isn't materially different from most of 2022-23. Just something to keep an eye on.
I've noted before that quarterly numbers are usually annual rates. The economy did not grow 1.6% or 1.3% in Q1. It grew at an ANNUAL RATE of 1.6% or 1.3% in Q1.
why does this chart start in 2021, when stimulus money was throwing everything into hyperdrive? if you draw a trend from data starting in 2024 is it shows an accelerating economy, not a slowing one.
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