I continue to be oddly fascinated by the Economic Uncertainty Index. Apparently we not only remain uncertain, we're getting more uncertain as Inauguration Day approaches:
Uncertainty has been shooting up in January as Trump blathers on about Greenland and the Panama Canal. Add in tax cuts, tariffs, and Republican infighting over the budget and I guess it's impossible to calm down.
The non-stop fear circus is already spinning up. Opening day is January 20th.
Politics is mostly irrational; but trust people to react rationally when their pocketbooks are concerned.
Lower-income whites have been ignoring their own economic interests for over fifty years to vote for Republicans. Resisting the end of White Christian Supremacy is more important than their own material welfare.
What is irrational is denying this basic fact of American politics, and trying to justify Trump's attraction on his "populism".
Well, except for the part where they don't think they're ignoring their material welfare. They think they're fighting for it not to be worse because they think Those People make it worse for them. They can't see the reality of things because of the hate.
Donald Trump is the ultimate loose cannon. Of course there's uncertainty. There's no telling from one day to the next what his latest idiocy is going to be.
Elect a clown and you get a circus.
That's unfair to clowns--who work hard at developing specific skills for the purpose of entertaining others--and to circuses, which are generally carefully orchestrated performances. If I go to a circus, I know what I'm going to get: people in goofy costumes dancing about and, like, whipping elephants or whatever. It may be unpleasant, but the people involved are professionals delivering an expected experience.
Not so with the Trump team, who are D-list weirdos who don't even know what they want to accomplish substantively. With Trump, it's more "elect an arrogant dumbass, and you get unpredictable idiocy."
Not to mention, stocks are in the bubbly range--P/E high.
IMO, what we're seeing is a reflection of the convicted felon, Trump: higher volatility.
Zing!
I love how much the graph looks like his signature!
Thank you so much for doing this research and spelling it out. Not everything has to be political... but... are there any experts? That's the one critique left open from your analysis. It seems amazing that in this day and age that we don't know exactly what the best way is to handle these fires.
Maybe the problem is that people shouldn't be building in such delicate areas. The insurance companies knew it was a problem, why didn't the people/government? In some places developers aren't allowed to build in wetlands, for instance. Why in the world did they build a neighborhood in such a precarious place?