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Employment is still more important than inflation

Courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, here's a map showing which states have increased employment the most over the past year:

The biggest states have been the slowest to increase employment, but they're now catching up with very large gains over the past few months. The biggest annual gainer in percentage terms is Nevada, which is up 7.1%. The biggest gainer in absolute terms is California, which added 869,000 jobs over the past twelve months.

I understand that inflation is the issue of the day, which means that employment numbers will probably get no media coverage at all today. But they're still important! High inflation is damaging, but not nearly as damaging as high unemployment. After all, would you rather have a job along with higher prices, or be unemployed with stable prices? The question answers itself.

18 thoughts on “Employment is still more important than inflation

  1. drickard1967

    I fear most people would answer "I want *other* people to be unemployed so *I* can get stable/lower prices."

    1. kenalovell

      Correct. It's long been recognized that people don't cast votes out of gratitude for having a job. The unemployment rate only becomes an issue when it's going up, and people worry they might lose their job. Even then, most people (correctly) feel they're not at risk.

  2. Brett

    It's hard for Utah to add more employment, even with in-migration. The unemployment rate was something like 2-3% even before Covid hit, and since then it's been sitting around 2%.

  3. MattBallAZ

    Sorry Kevin, but this is wrong. The only thing that matters are elections. And for this, inflation -- particularly gas prices -- are all that matter.

    Most people who want jobs have jobs. The relative handful that have gotten jobs are not enough to overcome the "vote against the party in power because gas is expensive" dynamic that will kill us in November.

    1. frankwilhoit

      "Most people who want jobs have jobs." Pure sado-conservative gaslighting. The statistics (as I am sure you know) don't count the people who have given up. If they did, the numbers would look very different -- and, down to 10-20 years ago, would have been received as requiring very urgent and drastic action. The difference today is that material rewards no longer have any salience, only emotional rewards. This is why no one cares about the price of gas: they only care about allegorical markers of tribal affiliation, and are only listening for incitement to genocide against other tribes. The winners, going forward, will be the better players of that game. It is the only game in town.

      1. MattBallAZ

        This is crazy! You can't really believe that, can you?
        Sure, some people have given up. But you can't possibly believe that most people who want jobs are unemployed.
        Gas prices are what swing elections, not 2 vs 4% unemployment.

  4. Special Newb

    And yet Trump for the first time, would beat Biden according to the polls. More Dems think Biden shouldn't run (40%) than should (37%).

  5. Jasper_in_Boston

    After all, would you rather have a job along with higher prices, or be unemployed with stable prices? The question answers itself.

    Even in quite severe recessions, the vast majority of voters have jobs. But inflation impacts everyone. I think it's an open question as to which situation affects our politics the most. I guess it depends on relative severity.

    1. Zephyr

      Exactly! The number of of employed always vastly outnumbers the number of unemployed, and inflation is hated by everyone. But, I frankly doubt many people, employed or unemployed, change their vote based on their job status. In fact, lots of people seem to idiotically vote against their own self interest when it comes to the economy. The reason inflation is terrible for the economy right now is that it means we are very likely to get a bunch of whacko Republicans in office to further wreck the economy by passing tax cuts for rich people and corporations. It's their hammer for driving whatever is before them, whether or not it is a nail, a screw, or a bolt.

  6. frankwilhoit

    "...would you rather have a job along with higher prices, or be unemployed with stable prices? The question answers itself."

    Perhaps it does, but that is not the choice on offer.

    1. jdubs

      It is the choice....but certainly most people don't accept that those are the two outcomes that monetary policy bounces between.

  7. golack

    But for Wall Street, these numbers are bad....for some reason it's better to have a cheap workforce than one that can buy more things...

  8. James B. Shearer

    "... High inflation is damaging, but not nearly as damaging as high unemployment. After all, would you rather have a job along with higher prices, or be unemployed with stable prices? The question answers itself."

    This is a slanted question. For one thing if you lose your job you will probably get another eventually if you want one. But the higher prices are never going to come down again overall. I have a fixed pension, the extra 6% inflation recently means it will be worth 6% less for the rest of my life.

    1. Austin

      You also can “probably get another job if you want one” too, you know. Boo hoo that your fixed pension just lost 6% of its value permanently, but so has everyone else’s savings and salaries. At least you have a guaranteed stream of income… unlike the unlucky workers who are paying inflated prices too and now will lose their jobs after all these rate hikes.

      1. James B. Shearer

        "... a guaranteed stream of income .."

        It isn't guaranteed if it isn't inflation adjusted.

        "... unlike the unlucky workers who are paying inflated prices too and now will lose their jobs after all these rate hikes."

        It is indeed unfortunate that the Biden administration has totally fouled up the economy.

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