Still catching up with some stuff. Here's the latest on EV sales:
Following the great EV collapse of January 2024, sales resumed their old growth rate. However, sales collapsed once again in January 2025, so we'll have to wait to see how quickly they recover.
I kind of wonder if it has anything to do with the meme that conservatives tout, about EV batteries dying in the winter? While I'd think that would have a more long-term effect, I wonder if the association just tends to put even people who would buy EVs off their feed during the cold months. Not entirely rational, but so much of what people do isn't.
It's more that car sales crash in the first quarter, period. Weather reduces both shipping, shopping; end of year sales consume pent up demand; and then corporate buyers have more limited budgets. Lastly, and this will effect things more and more, Chinese New Year - golden week - is a huge disruption in manufacturing and shipping, and occurs several weeks into the first quarter, just slightly off the western new year.
A better answer. Thanks.
No problem!
This year and last, there's also a shift in which cars are falling in and out of the tax rebates at the beginning pf the year.
Some kind of beginning of year effect?
Effect of Hertz's goal of selling off their 30,000 fleet of EVs by the end of 2024.
They just bought more. It's not a real effect.
They reduced their total fleet of EVs, limiting them to only areas where there's enough chargers to support rentals, per their Q4-2024 earnings report.
They said things, but they didn't actually have EVs outside areas that could support them anyhow.
They just used EVs as an excuse for their losses from the crash of all auto value from the pandemic high.
I used to want to buy a Tesla. But now when I see one, I just think Trumpmobile.
I see Tesla is having a big sales decline, I’d guess in part because many Democrats have stopped buying them. Glad to see it.
And MAGA hates EVs. I guess it’s non-political people still buying Teslas.
Tesla has the production capacity equal to all others combined, and they're already profitable per unit - in fact they make more profit on their EVs than any mass production ICE powered vehicle. So much so, a couple years ago, Tesla's total profit was the same as Toyota - who made 10x as many vehicles for sale.
But yeah, Elon's sinking the brand. And lefties are perfectly happy sharing anti-EV lies as long as it makes Elon sad.
He was doing that by selling carbon tax credits. That ship has sailed.
This is how the company was profitable, but not how their per auto profitability was calculated.
Tesla 'achieves ' incredible auto profitability margins by classifying major auto costs like R&D and warranty claims as 'service costs' instead of auto costs.
This is a major reason why they lead the pack in 'auto profitability' but trail much of the industry in overall profitability. It's simple accounting hi-jinks and the Tesla people flood the zone with these fake 'auto profitability' values to impress people who want to be impressed.
Exactly. Musk is killing his own product in the West.
He thinks he's going to dazzle everyone with what he claims is amazing self-driving technology in newer models, but a self-driving Nazimobile is still a Nazimobile and neither he nor Tesla's investors seem to have groked that yet.
I've heard both swasticar and stazicar. Both are apt, I think, but I prefer the latter.
I guess you won't buy a Volkswagen either, then.
I think there’s a statute of limitations on Nazi collaboration and company boycotts. When Tesla’s involvement with fascism is 80 years in the past like VW and Porsche’s is folks on the left will feel ok buying them again.
And the East. Sales there dropped as well - his focus on the cybertaxi means they never produced the expected prestige products to mass market products the company had planned to move into.
The Model S and X never got the production advances to make them cheaper to produce, he had the company stop building cars with cheaper batteries, and the Cybertruck did have a huge draw in China but they lifted no fingers to sell them there.
Elon should stop trying to make lefties sad, and stick to his core competency of owning stock in an EV company.
FWIW, this particular leftie is all-in on EVs, and spends a not insignificant chunk of his professional time working on charging structure implementation, but nonetheless I have no problem with people shunning Tesla. They are not the only game in town.
Kia and Hyundai are moving aggressively into EVs. The KIA EV 9 is an amazing car. Far cheaper than the Model X and much better form factor than anything Tesla.
I know a couple of people with a Kia EV and they love them. Definitely would look at one for my next car when the time comes.
The EV 9 doesn't compete with the Model X except in seats.
These kind of Tesla superfans are impervious to reality on this topic. lol
a strange breed, even before the nazification of the brand
We bought a Kia last year. It wasnt really on our radar at first, but we were shocked how much we liked it after a test drive. Would buy again.
Looks like sales collapse 25-35% every year. The chart is put together in a way that makes a consistent 25-35% collapse look like the regular January decrease is getting bigger every year due to the fact that sales are increasing over time.
30% of 130,000 looks more significant than 30% of 30,000. The chart presents the monthy and seasonal variation in a misleading way, due to the fact that the baeline is rising over time.
+1
Picked myself up a 2023 Chevy Bolt at the beginning of January for $17K out the door. I can recharge for free at work and boy is that thing zippy. For 90% of our driving this thing is great, and the decade-old Prius does everything else.
Can anyone confirm if the cold weather effect is accurate for EVs? Commentators here are saying "myth" but I've seen reporting otherwise.
Also, right now, there are tax credits for both buyers and sellers for EVs that are anticipated to end. I'd figure that if you wanted to buy an EV, it's now or 4 years from now. The slump in sales is probably worse than advertised.
Any battery will have less power when it's cold, as anyone who's ever tried to start a vehicle left outside on a subzero day will tell you. But discharging the battery produces heat, so the effect is short-lived.
What's the most expensive kind of heating? That's right, resistive heating. TL;DR: There's cold weather and then there's cold weather. Upper Midwest cold is not California cold. So the degradation goes from mild to severe depending on some fairly sloppy definitions.
And depending upon what kind of car. What kind of heating is cheapest? Heat pump. What does a Tesla have? A heat pump Several others do, too.
ICE powered cars also lose range in the cold - the air is thicker, the roads are wetter, etc - but people don't notice because they refill so fast.
But for most people's driving, they'll never notice, since overnight charging is so convenient.
Just searching for "cold weather effect is accurate for EVs" gives matches like that:
https://www.the-independent.com/cars/electric-vehicles/electric-car-cold-weather-range-charge-b2662063.html
https://www.gridserve.com/how-much-range-do-electric-cars-lose-in-the-cold-and-why/
Range can vary by make/model. There was a cold-weather test of 14 EVs done in Canada that looked at rated vs actual capacity in cold weather. You can read that at the link:
https://insideevs.com/news/750335/14-evs-canadian-winter-range-test/
If you like to blast the heat and live in a place that actually has a winter, then you will definitely see a decrease in range. Look for models that have a heat pump. Charging is also slower, but if you have charging at work or at home that should not be a problem.
+2
It appears that at about -30, EVs lose around a third of their range. Of course, it varies from car to car, but there's definitely a significant effect. In general, EVs have enough range that cold weather doesn't affect commuting, but on road trips more frequent recharging is needed when it's cold.
What happens if you factor Tesla out of the chart?
I've read in other places that it isn't EV sales, it is Tesla sales that are tanking. Since they are the largest producer they have the largest influence on the charts. That sounds plausible given that Tesla is losing sales in China, the US, and Europe.
But is it accurate?
Report today in the WaPo that Tesla sales in Europe are down 45% year-over-year in January. I'm going to guess that something like that is happening here, maybe not as pronounced, but people are taking a bit of hatred to the Swastikar.
Yes, but first quarter sales are always lowest in a year.