Note to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: If you want to run for president in 2024—and we all know you do—maybe you should cut out the "Don't Fauci My Florida" crap and listen to the guy instead:
And for those who like to point out that the death rate from COVID-19 is lower than it used to be, that's true. But here's a rerun of the list of "long COVID" nasties that can affect you even if you survive:
- Loss of smell or taste
- Depression or anxiety
- Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
- Tiredness or fatigue
- Difficulty thinking or concentrating (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”)
- Chest or stomach pain
- Erectile dysfunction
- Headache
- Fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations)
- Joint or muscle pain
- Pins-and-needles feeling
- Diarrhea
- Sleep problems
- Dizziness on standing (lightheadedness)
- Change in smell or taste
- Changes in period cycles
- Blood clots
- Strokes, seizures and Guillain-Barre syndrome
- Multiorgan effects or autoimmune conditions
- Multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS)
A higher infection rate is no joke. Even if COVID-19 doesn't kill you, it can still make your life pretty miserable.
I see a lot of people talking about the long COVID symptom in forums like this but I have not really seen anything that I feel like authoritatively says how common this sort of thing is, or breaks it down by how common it is in mild cases vs. serious cases. Also this list of potential long COVID symptoms is so varied and filled with so many vague first-world maladies that it makes me suspicious has to how much we actually know about the actual causation of a lot of these things.
I mean has there ever been a virus that can cause such a wide variety of bizarre symptoms for months or possibly years after you've recovered from the initial infection? I don't want to have my head in the sand but I also don't want to be panicking over a bunch of unsubstantiated alarmist crap either.
I had many of the same questions, and as I understand it from limited research, there's strong clinical evidence of the wide range of long term impacts. My guess is that one reason this virus seems uniquely problematic is it's infection rate, which caused a global pandemic and thus has hundreds of millions of cases worldwide. So perhaps other corona virus variants have similar impacts but basically no one ever really noticed or researched it. I listened to a good podcast on "long haul" covid yesterday you might like. https://www.wnyc.org/story/covid-long-haul-updates
About 20% of all infections last time I checked. Also I believe UK just launched a trial of 14 treatments to see how they effect long covid.
More salient to me, is whether vaccines can alleviate the problem (some suggestion they can) and whether breakthrough infections can cause it.
Also note: not all of that 20% will be sick forever. Some recover after months or with physical therapy.
It's even questionable if they are "cases". False positives are surging right now.
And you know this because?
He heard it on FAUX.
They would know. Fox is expert on what's positively false.
Keep on slobbering. Cases aren't matching the low rise of actual sick. Something is wrong.
It's true that a lot of the positive tests could be people who have been vaccinated and are asymptomatic and so would not end up the hospital.
Because it's a thing he heard that lets him feel superior to those who are taking the pandemic seriously. It's like all those people who argue that Covid is no worse than the flu, or that it kills hardly anybody, or that the psychological harm of staying at home is worse than millions of people being hospitalized--it has nothing to do with the contrary facts, and everything to do with waving a tribal flag.
But what tribe does Spades belong to?
This is a possible explanation:
“Indeed, there’s a real debate about what constitutes infection or cases of COIVD. COVID can briefly take hold and reproduce in a person’s nasal cavity and upper respiratory system before being knocked down by effective vaccines. That will produce a positive result on a PCR COVID test. But it’s an open question whether we should be treating that as an infection or a case of COVID for the purposes of setting public policy or judging our success in emerging from the pandemic.”
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-uncanny-delta-wave
Please note that the above is not to agree with Spades in any way shape or form. Just to give a possible explanation to some breakthrough infections.
Well, since testing positive is something that only happens when, you know, you go looking for it; additionally, testing generally can only e positive when someone is contagious, so... yes, we should count the cases.
Why yes, you are a "progressive," so you MUST not ever agree with someone who's not part of the Comintern. LOL
I know a family that got COVID over a year ago. They all "recovered" except the wife now has random seizures (never had it before) and their six year old will have liver problems the rest of his life.
And you "know" this because the voices inside your head told you? LOL
I am pretty dissapointed in the vacine. I got a double shot of Moderna and I still can't interface with 5G cell towers. Not even magnetic enough to attract iron, let alone brass keys and stainless steel spoons.
the pfizer makes you magnetic. the moderna just gives soros the ability to mind control you.
Friend was complaining about how she was still depressed after the shot. She thought she was supposed to get a Micrsoft personality upgrade.
All these updates are just getting her brain ready for Windows Me.2
Windows Me 2.0.
Obviously I need that upgrade.
But with Microsoft, you really want to wait until version 3 comes out before making the jump.
I'm sure my brain my brain will need a whole new motherboard to handle version 3.
Yes, see, it's doing it again!
I'm just very skeptical of many of these "long covid" reports (note, I'm not anti-vax, anti-mask, etc.).
Some of these symptoms are so vague and are likely things that have always been going on that people are just suddenly paying attention and putting a name to.
I had kidney cancer and my kidney removed. Since then, I've noticed all sorts of minor stomach/back area pains that freak me out. At first, I was convinced they were somehow related, but I've come to realize they are always just muscle tightness, or gas, or anxiety induced, or simply just random unexplainable sensations that happen in your body as you get older. Things that had probably been going on for years that I just ignored because there never seemed to be a reason to believe it was anything serious.
Certain acute symptoms (e.g., seizures, blood clots, etc.), sure, maybe they are covid-related. But I don't see how you can include things like anxiety, fatigue, headaches, joint pain, and diarrhea with any degree of certainty. Those are things that a majority of the population is feeling at any given time, and they probably weren't even thinking about it until someone asked them.
This is what I'm thinking as well. My guess is, years from now, most of these long COVID symptoms will be dismissed as unrelated, though that will remain very controversial with much of the public. There may be some long-term COVID symptoms but menstrual changes, erectile dysfunction, dizziness, "pins and needles feeling", and diarrhea? I mean maybe but color me skeptical.
All of those are directly affected by blood-oxygen levels and circulatory function. Low blood oxygen or low blood pressure response will cause literally every one of those symptoms. Pins and needles is the most common low blood oxygen symptom!
... says the "progressive" schizophrenic LOL
The medical establishment had this attitude towards Chronic Fatigue Syndrome sufferers for a long time. Turns out they were wrong, and had gaslighted suffering people for years, compounding their misery. How about this time we assume they're not making it up and then rule things out with science, instead of being an asshole? 🙂 In the meantime, everyone trying to protect themselves from the possibility of permanent disability is probably wise.
Incidentally, the fact that long covid is affecting children makes it much easier to study, since you wouldn't expect many 9 year olds to suddenly develop autoimmune conditions, etc. More of a blank slate.
The difficulty with some of the symptoms is that they are also things that have been reported by people who haven't had covid, and appear to be related to the psychological stressors of living in the Time of Covid.
The stress of living through a pandemic has caused a lot of people to complain about things like lack of sleep or tiredness. Plus, pandemic life has messed up a lot of people's eating habits.
Anxiety from a pandemic is still from the pandemic.
Don't DeInSanetist my California!!!
The death rate (deaths as a fraction of cases, calculated from the reported totals with a three-week lag) is not much lower than it was last October. It did come down early in the year as elderly people especially got vaccinated, but then it came back up. Maybe that's just because we started testing a lot less, so the set of confirmed cases tended to be more severe.
I imagine that an earlier version of the headline was, "California COVID-19 rate has quintupled in past month"
(Yes, it has.)
True, but starting points matter. New cases/100K/day:
CA: 12.7
FL: 37.7
Both are at 1.41 infection rate, but that is many cases/100K in FL than CA. Looks like infection rate may be leveling off (or starting to drop?) in both states, but cases will still be going up for a while. (CovidActNow.org).
CA needs to up it's game in getting the second doses into people's arms, esp. with the Delta Variant.
many more cases....damn you edit function!!!
Growth rate still matters, looking ahead. Whatever measures California has been using over the last four weeks could well send them right where Florida's been going. Now, what I don't know is how the rising numbers will affect Californians' behavior, or whether their unvaccinated population is still dense enough to keep this growth going much longer.
The point is in terms of growth rate over last month, ca is already exactly where Fla is, not getting there. They are where fla has "been going".
But in terms of where fla is ( and not just going) they still have far fewer cases. And, as long as they just have the same R as fla, ca would always stay better in case number.
Here in la, have noticed some change in behavior already, even unmandated a few weeks ago, almost nobody wearing masks outside anymore. Now a decent number including some who are vaccinated ( likely that is silly).
And definitely more inside masking but that is now legally required.
One problem is that my guess is that the biggest behavior change has been in those who are vaccinated where it is less likely to help, while unvaccinated, who should have a bigger reason to change behavior, have not.
The cases can only rise so far, wherever you are, and being at a lower level in place A than in place B today doesn't mean place A will always have it better. Another peak will come for Florida, and another for California, and I don't know whose peak will be higher.
I see we are thinking somewhat alike and you too are pointing out rate of change is the same.
And I fully support you emphasis on getting the 2nd shot of vaccine. Those are more persuadable as they already had the first shot.
In terms of upping their game, I have two calls in past three days from someone asking to help me set up a vaccine appointment. Of course I am fully vaccinated so no need. But little things like that can help. Do not underestimate how much unvaccinated are not due to any thoughtful resistance but just lazy procrastination. Nobody should need any help getting an appointment - you can just walk into a drugstore and get one no wait. But some still do.
I wish they had called back in spring when appointments were tough to get and it took me ( I counted) 1064 tries by internet or phone before I got one.
I suffer more that half of those ailments without Covid.
I’d for sure be a goner if I happen to catch it.
You might think that after all we've gone through, by now we would at least have put in place a systematic system for surveillance of covid-19 infection that would be robust to things like fewer people getting tested now because they're asymptomoatic (or maybe even mildly symptomatic but don't test because, being vaccinated, they mistakenly think it just couldn't possibly be covid.) You would think that after all the deaths and morbidity we would have at least put in place the infrastructure to get reliable, useful data about incidence of this disease.
But you would be wrong. So, we drive the car as best we can with a blindfold on.
+1. Yes, you would think. You would also think there would be a great deal of support for setting up a public-health system like those that were so successful in a number of Asia/Pacific nations. And being prepared for the next pandemic with stockpiles of medical needs, and robust supply lines to continue making them available. And so on. But no, there are higher priorities, like kicking trans kids off of sports teams, and preventing the massive voter fraud that never occurs ....
Oh spare me. Let these people die. They are terrorists.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/louisiana-covid-19-hospital-unit/
Funny thing to say about your allies in the Hawley-Gabbard Nat-C Regime. Coming soon 2025.
I think Kevin's presumed point in the original post is just incorrect though.
Per covidactnow, cases in Florida have gone up by a touch over 5 times in the last month, not four times.
And cases in California have gone up in the last month by a touch over 5 times.
If you are trying to compare the rate of increase in last month, they are eerily identical.
Hard to see in that graph as California started lower and this is still lower with same rate of increase. You can eyeball the rate of increase for Florida in that graph easier than California as ca too smashed down to see.
If you want to criticize florida in relation to fla, then need to pick on something other than rate of increase in last month, because they are doing the same there. The difference is the starting numbers which if anything is attributable to prior policies not policies today.
And this is what I have been getting at in noticing that the differences in R between states and metro areas is just not large enough or even always in right direction for the simple explanation that it is all the dumb Republicans not allowing restrictions or getting vaccinated. If so, why has ca had the same rate of increase as fla last month?
And my best answer looking at data is
A) natural immunity counts too and to me looks like it might be a touch better than overall vaccine for stopping spread ( which affects R. Possible say vaccine is better than natural for preventing infection but natural a bit better for stopping you from infecting others if you are infected) .
B) in general, places with high vaccinations like california have had fewer cases and thus lower natural immunity . So usually total immunity across states is much closer then either vaccine or natural looked at seperately. But still estimate that ca total immunity should be higher then fla.
C) and also seems to me that either immunity is limited in how much it stops the spread. Otherwise there should be more discrepancy between places with higher or lower total immunity
D) I see next to no evidence that restrictions and masking make a big difference, if any. I expect it might help a bit, but immunity a much bigger issue.
E) all that said, fla has lower total immunity almost surely, fewer restrictions which should make a little difference, and is more southern and hot than ca ( which also seems to be an issue). So it should have had a somewhat greater rate of increase than ca in last month. But it did not.
Why? Could just be random chance, maybe delta got to ca first. Maybe the immune and non immune are spread more uniformly in fla ( which should help). But I would note current R is higher in fla so maybe next month fla will have a higher increase. But not last month.
Some have been vaccinated after having Covid. Not sure what % of recovered are also vaccinated. Otherwise it sure does look like reinfection is rare. Breakthrough infections happen more, but still very low incidence.
I guarantee that there is a lower vaccination rate among those who have had covid than those who have not. And by lot.
First because the type of person who might have done things that got them covid in the first place is also the type that is less willing to get vaccinated.
Second, because for many having had covid and now natural immunity is a reason for why they do not think it is important enough to get vaccinated
For all those now upset at my last post for questioning the orthodox view here, will add a comment that you can agree with.
I did see there was an outbreak in a nursing home where 4 vaccinated residents got covid and died. But nobody said vaccine was perfect and especially if very old. And with delta, this sort of thing will be occasionally happening no matter what we do and nobody's fault.
But then read further and it says that only 45% of the nursing home staff was vaccinated? Oh hell no. Less than population average?
I am not a huge fan of vaccine mandates, especially if govt imposed. But if there is any situation where it is warranted , it is nursing home staff. And should not need a govt mandate . Any nursing home should be requiring staff to be vaccinated as part of job requirement. Otherwise find another job.
I was not happy finding out a few years ago that the staff at my mother's nursing home were not all vaccinated for the flu. But they did require any unvaccinated staff to wear a mask during flu season. Which put a lot of pressure on them to get vaccinated.
I now will be calling to check that the staff at my mother ' s nursing home were required to be vaccinated and will be real unhappy if not.
Good luck with the nursing homes. I think you will be unhappy.
Apparently so few folks want to work in old folks homes that they compromise on vaccine requirements to have enough workers to keep the homes open. ARGH, not a good state of affairs!
Not an excuse here if true.
We spent a huge amount of money on a lot of questionable worth things for covid.
We spent trillions on economic stimulus due to economic losses caused by restrictions that were of questionable benefit and unclear were worth it ( not trying to argue here whether they were worth it or not - just that it was questionable).
So hard time mandating vaccine for nursing home staff because hard to keep ees at that pay level anyway? Then the govt can spend a tiny fraction of what they are spending to bribe nursing home staff to get vaccinated or , better, subsidize nursing home staff pay enough so that they can attract new vaccinated ees to replace anyone who refuses to get vaccinated ( I do not want anyone taking care of my mom who is too selfish to get vaccinated). And do not hire them back when pandemic ends.
No matter how effective you might think the restrictions were, you have to agree that one dollar spent making sure nursing home staff are vaccinated is far more valuable than the same dollar spent due to restrictions. You start first to do the things that have the highest benefit vs. Cost and that are clearly high value. This should be near #1.
Yeah, it's just so questionable whether or not people should be in close proximity when a virus more deadly than usual is making the rounds. So many questions. That's why I watch Tucker Carlsen: to make sure I always have enough questions.
Difficulty thinking or concentrating (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”) - that must be the former guy's lingering symptom.
Is Fox actually smart and strategic enough to be changing its tune on vaccines because they can see the headlines out of Florida in about a month or so?
Most nursing home staff there are not vaccinated...
https://states.aarp.org/florida/nursing-home-staff-covid-vaccines
I dunno.
To me, those long term symptoms describe the Republican base. Maybe it is a feature, not a bug?
> the death rate from COVID-19 is lower than it used to be
Sure, but it's going to triple in the next three weeks because deaths lags cases. And cases haven't stopped rising, so death will continue to double every two weeks after that until enough people have been "naturally" vaccinated, or we go back into lockdown.
The death rate is not affected by any lag as long as you are not stupid enough to try to calculate that using current deaths over current cases.
The perception of what the actual death rate is may be biased by an incorrect assumption of how to adjust for that lag.
One problem I see there might be using a too simplistic rule of just comparing reported deaths today vs reported cases three weeks ago. And expecting a smooth correlation.
Part of the gap is how long it takes to die after catching covid, for those who do die. And the 2nd part is the extra time it takes to report a case vs. reporting a death. And the third is the lag between catching covid and getting tested ( negative factor). And all of these are not consistent.
The gap in reporting times for cases vs deaths perhaps might be say two weeks. But even if it is that is only an average reporting gap. In reality, the death reporting is spread out over a long time, and longer than cases, because there are more parts of that process. Some deaths might be reported a few days after they occur and a few others reported maybe four months later.
And this biases things when cases are either dropping or rising quickly. Say cases have been dropping fast for three months, like maybe back in may. Then, even if only 5% of deaths take over 2 months to report, more than 5% of current reported deaths are over two months old, simply because there were more of them to be delayed back then. So you then need to adjust by looking back a bit farther for the gap. Maybe as a rough idea look at deaths today vs. Cases four weeks vs there weeks ago. And that meant in may, our rate of death decline was being distorted to look too small.
Now, as we reach a period where cases have been rising fast for a while, the bias is reversed. So just looking back standard three weeks would make it look like deaths are really increasing much slower than cases.
But that might be offset by another factor. As cases are now more concentrated in those with less chance of dying, the eventual ifr should be lower than it used to be by a lot. But I would guess that of those that die, they take longer to do so. And that increases the gap.
I commented that no way I think our deaths will increase to 2 in Kevin's chart in two weeks and I stand by that. But I am talking about reported deaths. Which is all we see.
Actual deaths per day might be up to 2 in two weeks, although I would guess not. And eventual deaths for those getting infected in two weeks might much easier be over 2 in two weeks. My guess there is still no but very uncertain. Deaths from people getting infected today have to first get tested, then test confirmed and then reported to get a reported case. Might average two weeks or so. And deaths have to get sick, go to hospital, linger there, finally die there, be determined as covid by medical experts , and then go thru all the reporting steps.
Those deaths due to infection today will be scattered in reports with some even not reported until 2022.
All.that we are looking at is what happened some time in the past, and not consistently with that gap. Some of today's deaths are really ones from three months ago and some are from less than a week ago.
We will not have a real good idea what is happening today july 22 until sometime in the fall.
"Progressives" are fine with Killer Cuomo, the mafia son, and Pelosi, gangster daughter of a mafia thug. As long as they are Democrats, it's o.k.! LOL