Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 21 Update

2 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 21 Update”

1. golack July 22, 2021 – 3:05 pm at

   Maybe up scale to 4? Mexico will need it soon, and we might broach 2 in a few weeks.
2. rational thought July 22, 2021 – 8:11 pm at

   There is nothing I see that indicates any chance that we will be at 2 in a " few weeks". Way too pessimistic. Now possible we may eventually get back to 2, but I actually doubt it.

   Today as compared to earlier waves, most infections are going to be in vaccinated and younger unvaccinated ( and for covid chance of death, under 50 is young and under 65 fairly young).

   For deaths , the bulk of the risk is in the low hanging fruit of the unvaccinated , no natural immunity elderly ( over 60 or 65 and getting more serious the older).

   At least we have taken the bulk of the low hanging fruit and got that protected.

   Look at the UK. Their case have just exploded and way higher than ours. And their cases went above our current rare some time ago. But the death rate, while going up, is just now starting to reach our level.

   Now do not think we will do quite as well as the uk re deaths as % of cases. But also expect our cases will not climb as quickly as theirs.

   The uk strategy ( i.e first dose before full and high priority for eldest first) was not quite as good as ours at using vaccinations to stop or slow spread the spread. But will be much better as reducing deaths as % of cases.

   The UK took the low hanging fruit almost completely off the table. While overall our vaccination rate is better, the uk vaccination rate for elderly is absolutely outstanding.

   If what I suspect is true, that we have no way out but herd immunity mostly through additional natural immunity from addtl cases, the uk results will in the end be better..

   The way the uk is going, they might be at real herd immunity in two months.

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