I've made this point before, but it's worth making again: inflation at the grocery story has been very, very low for over a year. Here is monthly inflation in groceries:
Over the past 12 months, inflation in groceries has averaged 1.1%, way below the normal rate.
The press ran about a million pieces when food inflation was high, complete with the usual B-roll of clanging cash registers and highlights of whatever product happened to be up the most. And they're still writing them!
But food inflation is nearly zero. When will they start writing about reality? That is:
- Food inflation has been super low for over a year now.
- In April prices went down.
- Compared to a year ago, eggs are down 9%! Apples are down 13%. Seafood is down 3%. Coffee is down. Citrus fruits are down. White bread is down. Peanut butter is down. Lunchmeat is down.
And this has all been happening while average wages have gone up 4% in the past year. You'd think all of this would be of some interest to news consumers.
The press isn't interested in good news, especially good news that's good for Biden.
Agreed. When reporting on inflation, bring your camera crew to a grocery store and find someone who looks distraught, then stick a mike in their face and let them spout off. Do this for about 5 different people, and then pick the angriest one to run on the nightly news. Then follow that up with how this is "bad news for president Biden."
"...You'd think all of this would be of some interest to news consumers."
If it bleeds it leads.
Also, Deep State Big Gummint lies, and you can prove anything with statistics, too!
Yes but, the lived experience for a lot of working class folks is a challenge. Real wages have declined under Biden’s presidency and interest rates are up.
"For the bottom half, however, wealth remains below its level before the Fed began raising rates, after subtracting credit card and mortgage debt and other liabilities."
https://jacobin.com/2023/12/real-wages-joe-biden-administration-economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/business/economy/interest-rates-inequality.html#:~:text=The%20economy%20as%20a%20whole,moderate%2Dincome%20families%20are%20struggling.
Just can't take the good news without a fight ....
See Paul Krugman. The "lived" experience as evidenced in most polls is actually pretty good right now, it's the assumption that everyoe else isn't doing that well, which is constantly perpetuated by "middle of the road" media and business types that's doing a lot of the damage here. Also see Dean Baker re the bottom and wealth :
https://cepr.net/would-the-new-york-times-have-written-a-piece-at-the-end-of-2019-telling-us-moderate-income-families-are-struggling/
In short, no,, everything is not perfect but it's much better than you and others purport.
Oh, sure, Dean Baker, well-known resister of The Narrative, notorious for using facts and data to make his arguments.
Dean Baker links to this:
https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/
Lots of charts. Shows how every income group has had real wage increases, but my favorite was the chart marked: "Wage compression in the most recent period contrasts sharply with prior 40 years"
I think Biden has done a really good job under tough conditions.
From Krugman a few months ago:
"In the latest poll, of Michigan voters, only 35 percent of people said that the national economy was excellent or good, while 65 percent said it was not so good or bad. But when asked about their personal finances the proportions were basically reversed, with 61 percent saying that they were in excellent or good shape and 38 percent saying they were in not so good or bad shape."
This is typical in many different polls and as Kevin has pointed out elsewhere this discrepency is often true but rarely this large.
RZM I believe the below supports my point.
"The enduring impacts of the pandemic and high inflation levels have led only 17% of respondents to report being better off financially than before Biden became president. Approximately 32% of respondents indicated no change in their personal finances, while 51% reported being worse off. Many also attribute these economic difficulties to Biden, with 49% stating that his economic policies have harmed the economy and only 28% believing they have helped."
https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/economic-issues-prove-troublesome-for-biden
Obviously the key here is how you phrase your poll question.
Clearly most people were worse off in the last year of Trump's Presidency but that's not what they think of when asked the question RCP asks, they think of pre-pandemic. What Kevin is highlighting is the gains of the past year and a half and the answers people give in polls like the one I cited in Michigan reflect the fact that many people are currently feeling pretty good about their own lives right now.
I wonder if the poll question was phrased, are you better off now than you were in the middle of the pandemic in 2020, what results you would get. In any case, if inflation remains lower and things like the cost of groceries continues on the path Kevin has highlighted all your "yes butting" will be for naught.
RZM - brass tacks
1. I want Biden to win
2. Biden's polling and in the swing states is not great/frankly sort of bad
3. The idea that most voters are wrong (stupid, bias, etc) on the economy feels really dangerous to me.
Not most voters, but a significant minority, are stupid. Really: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/upshot/abortion-biden-trump-blame.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sE0.j3t2.cyPLtKeUwLku&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
17% of respondents in battleground states think Biden ended access to abortion.
Just ignorant.
I believe you sincerely want Biden to win. Everyone who is not in the MAGA universe should want this.
Biden's polling in swing states is concerning though it is useful to read Josh Marshall (TPM) on this topic.
Most voters are not that wrong about their personal finances but they frequently are about the larger picture and the question is why, especially right now when the gap between perception and reality is much larger than usual. I spent a good part of my lunchtime from 2021-2023 watching CNBC because it was on all the time at my gym. The message over and over again was doom and gloom. First, we were heading for 1970's stagflation again. Then, as inflation came down dramatically it was a near certainty that we were headed toward a terrible recession, indeed we might already be in one. This is the same message you hear on the nightly news and elsewhere so it is no surprise that most people - not just the Fox News watchers - have a negative sense of the economy. And these folks NEVER recant or apologize oer say "gee, I was wrong last year". I mean, Good Lord, Rick Santelli still has a slot there, a guy who spent over a decade from 2009 to 2021 warning of runaway inflation.
Propaganda is EVERYTHING. As long as people hear that other people believe a thing, they decide they have to believe the same thing so they can sound and feel wise. Most of the propaganda emerges from the mainstream media, not that they have a partisan agenda but they instinctively prefer to report negative news about "those in power." They still think that's their mission.
False. Real wages are up in all quintiles, and in fact the increase has been greatest in the lowest quintile. People may report that their lives are worse, but the data are otherwise. And yes, interest rates, especially on things like credit cards, are a burden for everyone and most of all for the low-income. But that's different from real wages.
In reality, there is no 'pure lived' experience that is separate from the presented or portrayed experience that we are told we are living.
If you hear that the demonic liberals have stolen an election and we must attack congress to stop them, this might be your lived experience. You know the election was stolen.
Similarly, if you hear that both last months price increases are bad news and this months price decreases are also bad news....if you hear that both wage gains wage decreases are both bad economic news if everyone is always presented as struggling with the current economy, your lived experience changes. This is now part of your experience.
If you think you are immune to this messaging/propoganda, you are likely the easiest mark.
Yes, but the prices of many of the essentials like coffee and chocolate are up!
And here is the rub.
"eggs are down 9%! Apples are down 13%. Seafood is down 3%. Coffee is down. Citrus fruits are down. White bread is down. Peanut butter is down. Lunchmeat is down"
Those are lovely cherries you've picked. Also, it's reassuring for people on fixed incomes, or have a savings account, that wages have gone up 4% uniformly across the board.
So... we're doing a Trump thing now? Forgetting the past. I guess that makes the future look sunny no matter what the issue is. Okay, then.
He provided the overall rate of food at home (grocery) inflation as well.
Also, the 2023 social security increase was over 8% and the 2024 increase was over 4%.
You are part of the problem here.
Thanks for the factual points. Here's hoping for better awareness.
This is a "Trump thing"? I guess I've been mistaken for years now, thinking that the "Trump thing" is American Carnage, America being destroyed by the communist leftists bringing in migrants to vote in droves, etc.
Give me a break. Kevin picks a wide range of grocery staples and you call it "cherry picking"?
What a dumb post. We had food inflation and now it's over. Good. Hurray!
You're actually complaining that food inflation has been at 1.1% for the last 16 months? You don't even dispute the number. That's just stupid.
You don't really say what dumb point you're trying to make, but apparently everyone who supports Biden is supposed to beg the country to forgive us or something. If Trump were president the headlines would read, "Trump conquers food inflation." And that would, for once, be an accurate headline. Looks like you are also demanding that the economy collapse so prices will drop and people on fixed incomes can buy more food. Great plan! If only people would listen to you all our problems would be gone.
I also love your claim that talking about meat, eggs, fruit, and bread prices being down is cherry picking. Um, sure. Only meat, eggs, fruit and bread. Nobody buys those.
“When will they start writing about reality?”
I predict the second week of November after the election is over and done with, as there will no longer be any need to put their thumbs on the scales by then. Either Biden will have been reelected or the economy will be about to crash again under Republican rule (as it always does).