Get out the popcorn. Rep. Matt Gaetz—archenemy of Speaker Kevin McCarthy for some reason—has finally followed up on his threat to file a motion to remove McCarthy from the speakership. A vote will be held later this week.
Gaetz needs 217 votes to oust McCarthy.¹ Obviously he won't get anywhere near that number from Republicans, but traditionally the opposing party votes unanimously against the majority party's candidate. So all Gaetz needs are the 212 Democrats in the House plus five Republicans. But Democrats have options:
If Democrats were to vote against Mr. McCarthy — as is almost always the case when a speaker of the opposing party is being elected — Mr. Gaetz would need only a handful of Republicans to join the opposition to remove him, which requires a simple majority vote. But Mr. McCarthy could hang onto his gavel if Democrats vote to support him, simply skip the vote altogether or vote “present.” In that situation, Democrats who did not register a vote would lower the threshold for a majority and make it easier to defeat Mr. Gaetz’s motion.
So there are two big questions. First, will Democrats help McCarthy? Second, if they don't, does Gaetz have the votes he needs?
As near as I can tell, there's no consensus on either question. Democrats have mostly kept their cards close to the chest. On the one hand, McCarthy averted a government shutdown over the weekend by working with Democrats, so maybe they owe him. On the other hand, they're pretty pissed off at McCarthy for opening an impeachment inquiry against President Biden. So who knows? This question also hinges on whether McCarthy can offer Democrats something in return for their support.
As to the second question, no one knows. It doesn't seem like five votes is a high hurdle, but so far we haven't heard from four more Republicans (in addition to Gaetz himself) who have said unequivocally that they'll vote to remove McCarthy.
In the meantime the two sides are mostly engaging in trash talk. Stay tuned.
¹I think so, anyway. The House currently has two vacancies, so Gaetz only needs a majority of 433 members, not the usual 435.
They haven't expelled Gaetz yet?
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/gaetz-threat-already-crumbling-apart
If McCarthy wants to offer the Democrats a little something in exchange for what would essentially be the American equivalent of "confidence and supply" for his Speakership... sure, that'd be kosher. There's a lot of things we want, primarily in the vein of "keep your fucking loonies in line;" he tosses a few of them our way, we'll toss something his way.
What would be less cool would be us propping him up for nothing. If McCarthy wants to offer us "save my ass... but once you do, it's right back to impeachment hearings and claiming 2020 was stolen and all the usual fascist shenanigans" then the response should be "solve your own problems, Kev."
We'll see if he even needs our help, tho. Gaetz might not have the votes.
If McCarthy wants to offer the Democrats a little something in exchange for what would essentially be the American equivalent of "confidence and supply" for his Speakership... sure, that'd be kosher.
I was thinking along similar lines. If they could get a funding agreement taking a shutdown off the table until, say, February of 2025, I'd say go for it. I have zero idea if this is possible (and Democrats don't have a majority, so at least some GOP votes would be needed). But this is the kind of deal I could get behind. I'm not overly concerned with impeachment because I'm pretty sure the GOP is only hurting itself on that score.
In general terms, though, GOP internecine war aside, there's still a country to run, and who knows who will replace McCarthy (Gaetz?) if the former is jettisoned? That's a scary thought. Maybe the next GOP Speaker allows a shutdown to occur, and then linger indefinitely. These people are vandals and nihilists.
Republicans continue to play bullshit high school lunch table games, news at 11.
As the the actual question, it depends on if His Kevin is willing to give up something of value greater than the public damage Republicans are doing to themselves with this.
More generally, who cares if it is McCarthy or some other idiot caught between reality, his own party's rules and the narcissistic idiots?
I suspect Gaetz is high on his own supply and that this isn't going anywhere. I don't think a majority of House Republicans -- as much as they may *want* to can McCarthy -- want to go through another however many weeks looking like idiots in disarray becuase they can't elect another speaker.
Gaetz thinks he's a lot smarter and more clever than he really is. I hope McCarthy destroys him.
"...I don't think a majority of House Republicans .."
Without help from the Democrats McCarthy needs more than a majority from House Republicans, he needs near unanimity.
Hopefully a clear signal from Democrats that they will in no way, shape, or form be bailing them out of this will focus a few minds...
I'm pretty sure you're right on this one; IOW, once again these wights expect Democrats to bail them out a mess of their own making. The wild card is whether Democats will. And on this I haven't the slightest idea. I have a pretty good idea who does though: Nancy 🙂
Dayyum, I love it when this woman is being clever. You can bet she's using this one as a teachable moment for her young protégé.
Are there five Republicans who like Gaetz? Probably not.
I could imagine five Republicans who think they should vote for Marjorie Taylor Greene or Jungle Jim Jordan, but I can't imagine either of them winning a majority vote.
I think Kevin may have got it right earlier, if they vote out McCarthy there will be chaos, then they'll vote him back in, mostly because the people voting for him at that point will just want to stick it to the people who caused the chaos, not because anyone likes him.
Democrats should let McCarthy fall. The only trades worth making are trades that McCarthy cannot afford to make. End the impeachment? He'd lose almost all R support.
And then, he'd turn around and start the "impeachment" up again, as soon as the Nihilist Caucus forced his hand.
You can't bargain with McQ because, whatever he says, he won't, can't deliver.
Exactly.
Democrats don't need any trade to support McCarthy. It will cause an explosion inside the Republican party, and that worth it on its own.
And they lose nothing by supporting him.
Democratic support for McCarthy would elevate him to a status that he has not earned. The Beltway would swoon.
That will damage the Republican party even more, so that is a gain, not a loss.
It will also damage Trump position.
Democrats don’t owe McCarthy shit.
That’s like saying a wife owes her abusive husband because he gave her a day off to let her bruises heal. The perpetual hold-the-economy-hostage-whenever-the-other-party-holds-the-White-House schtick used by Republicans is and has always been by their fucking choice. McCarthy owes Democrats.
Good comparison! FWIW, I've seen it written that Democrats have been behaing like battered wives. Fortunately, this is beginning to change.
The question is not what they owe McCarthy, or can they trust him. The question is what they get and what they lose from supporting him. I think they get a splitted Republican party and lose nothing.
+10
One guy is an ambitious, lying, worthless POS, and the other guy is a vengeful, evil weasel bent on destruction. Both place their own naked self-interest above honor or service.
If you were a Democrat, which one would you side with?
Tough choice, if you ask me.
Are you sure the debt runs in that direction?
The impeachment hearings are just theater. The more important thing the Dems are pissed off with McCarthy about is that they had a deal as a result of the debt ceiling negotiations, and McCarthy broke it, proving that he can't be trusted at all.
Right.
Kevin McCarthy is a feckless worm who has already reneged on agreements he's made with President Biden and the House Democrats. There's no value to Democrats to keep him in "power."
Once he's dethroned (no Dem ought to vote for him), Democrats can kick back and keep running Hakeem Jeffries as their candidate. It could take weeks and maybe even crimp the style of the "impeachment" "investigation", but let the Republicans suffer. For up to six weeks, when things get real again as the money runs out.
If they remove McCarthy, do the impeachment inquiry hearings continue? I hope not.
If they remove McCarthy, there's no speaker. Without a speaker there's no House, no committees, no nothing. It's unorganized, presided over by the clerk. Its only business is choosing a speaker. This is a constitutional position that must be filled for the House even to exist as such, afaik.
So, kind a perfect scenario for the "burn it all down" crowd?
Yes, sadly for the rest of us. And a distraction from the trials and outrages of the Cheeto Mussolini that will give him more protection the longer it goes on. By early November his ongoing illegalities will barely rate a paragraph on page A17 and only his fans will see anything about him, and that'll be what he feeds them on his own controlled channels.
There's a real chance to get some concessions out of McCarthy, although whether he'd honor them after surviving the vote is another question. I doubt they can get him to kill an impeachment inquiry into Biden, but they should ask him for an automatic extension of the next CR through next year (including Ukraine funding), so that there's no risk of a shutdown until 2025 at the earliest.
Gaetz is slimy enough that I wouldn't put it past him to be fully hypocritical and hold talks in secret with Democrats if it seemed like McCarthy was going to make a deal with them, but he's also probably too incompetent and unpleasant to win on that fight.
Did a little q
Did a little quick model in Excel of the interaction of voting present and against McCarthy. Couple of quick thoughts:
1. 6 "No" is the magic number if the Dems don't help at all
2. If the Rep defectors rise to a total of 8 No and 4 present, then McCarthy needs 14 Dems to vote present (ouch)
3. The number of Dems to vote starts to rise pretty fast, as the Rep vote No or present (e.g. 38 Rep no or present votes equals 62 Dem present votes for McCarthy to survive)
Assumes 221 Rep and 211 Dems and everybody votes
P.S. Sorry about the partial message - how do you delete that?
In a way, this is the least damaging time for Gaetz to pull this stunt, because there's almost a month and a half before things get really serious. This takes a lot of the urgency out of it for the Ds. We can let it get strung out without running up against the CR expiring. If Gaetz really wanted a crisis, he might have waited a month or so. So how serious is he about dethroning McCarthy, really?
As for Ds helping McCarthy-- not right away, if ever. The thing is, his consistent MO is betrayal. He makes a deal with the crazies, seems to push it for a while, then suddenly springs a deal with Biden (where it appears he got pantsed). Then he screws Biden by giving the crazies what they want (which turns out to be enough rope to beclown themselves) and appears to push their agenda, but then turns around and suddenly springs something he concocted all by his lonesome on the whole House.
No agreement with him will ever mean anything, no matter who you are. Yet that may be the method behind how he manages his caucus, and if you look only at the end results, his weaseling has avoided hurting the country too deeply, twice now.
So in the end, if Rs do boot him out, I think Ds will eventually set up the conditions that get him back in the chair, but maybe not so obviously. Almost all of his caucus is willing to have him there, and he's the only person on the R side of the House who even wants the job. And he _really_ wants it. And nominal Rs do make up the majority.
But if that's what the Ds do, they're also smart enough not to expect anything specific from him, just that he'll end up betraying everybody he touches.
Agree, mostly, except I think Democrats will remain on the sidelines. If the Stupid Party dumps McCarthy, they will eventually be forced to re-elect him, because no one else wants the job badly enough to promise to further the agenda of the Freakshow Caucus. Of course, everyone knows that McCarthy can’t make good on those promises, but neither could anyone else.
Letting the House GOP twist in the wind is the best option unless McCarthy can make a deal -- and what good is a deal with McCarthy when he has the Freedom Caucus limiting his options? It's possible McCarthy knew that any move to vacate would come up against GOP resistance, but it still splits the party at a crucial time. I don't think McCarthy is going to catch a break from anyone who opposes him right now.
I may be proved wrong in a few hours, but I really don't think a majority of Democrats in the house will support a motion filed by the nuttiest of the MAGA batshit crazy nutjobs. Most will either miss the vote or vote present and let the GOP decide McCarthy's fate.
This of course can occur daily if they like. I don't think the Democrats owe McCarthy anything but there are clearly worse options.
I guess I have been proven wrong! Apparently the Democrats have decided to vote to vacate.
Hold on to your knickers.
Well, Matt G can be thrilled he’s got 7 people with him.