I don't really understand how you can conduct a poll in a place like Gaza, but the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research says they can do it. Here's one result from their latest survey:
After nearly a year of the most brutal pummeling imaginable, only 28% of Gazans still think Hamas can win the war. But still: 28%!
In other results, Hamas has lost a bit of support but is still the most popular single faction in Gaza. And Gazans really, really don't like the United States. I wouldn't be surprised if we poll lower than Israel.
On a side note, there's also this:
This is something I've been following for a while, and this survey seems to confirm that food shipments are improving—at least in southern Gaza. PSR doesn't do fieldwork in northern Gaza, so we have nothing on that one way or the other.
I fear the food survey may be showing desperation. Earlier on they may be expecting 2 or more meals a day, so don't have enough for 2 days, but now only expect to get one meal a day, so have enough for a couple of days.
Could be that. Personally I think it's probably a consequence of something that's been widely reported outside of MSM, namely that commercial transport of food into Gaza increased but humanitarian decreased or could not be distributed. So who is contacted for a poll? Who has a phone that still works. Who's that? Mostly people who can pay for food.
IOW the poll does not show less of the poor are starving. BTW if Israel is really targeting only Hamas, this is a funny way to do it. Presumably Hamas can pay for food.
" And Gazans really, really don't like the United States. I wouldn't be surprised if we poll lower than Israel."
Well, duh. Every bomb has "Made in U.S.A." stamped on it. I can only assume Kevin's making a stab at humor on this one.
Hamas killed 43 Americans on Oct 7. They are still holding seven Americans hostage. They just murdered one hostage, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, because they were afraid he might be rescued.
So damn straight we are giving Israel weapons, including bombs, and we should damned well continue until every single Hamas member is dead.
We also owe the Israelis a huge thank you for killing Ibrahim Aqil, who was one of those responsible for the US Embassy and Marine Barracks bombings in Lebanon in 1983. Every American president from Reagan to Biden should be embarrassed that it took 41 years to pay that blood debt and that the Israelis had to do it for us.
Fuck this troll. Don’t feed it.
Grin... I can see you desperately holding back, but we all know what you want to say: "Those Americans don't really count. They were all Jewish."
Yep
He posted that at 6:55 am and MF's already working on his second pint of the hard stuff. Old Grandad: It's what's for breakfast.
Israel killed 34 Americans when they attacked the USS Liberty, and their snipers have been killing American journalists at will.
The first paragraph is irrelevant, the second paragraph is nauseating and stupid, the first half of the third paragraph is accurate, the second half of the third paragraph is jingoistic nonsense.
1. Are you seriously claiming that it is irrelevant that Hamas murdered 44 Ameriecans and is holding seven others hostage? We should just say "Yeah... kind of annoying, but let's talk ceasefire!"??!?
2. What is nauseating or stupid about killing every member of Hamas?
3. Are you seriously saying that the US should not kill terrorists that kill Americans if capturing them is impractical?
But American citizens killed by the Israelis don't matter.
They do. If Israel starts launching terrorist attacks and killing Americans in them we should react very forcefully.
That whole poll is something else.
- Since March, the % of people who had a family member injured or killed had not changed.
- Yet, the % of Gazans who think Oct. 7 was a correct/wrong decision has completely flipped from 57%/37% to 39%/57%.
It's become clear that neither Israel nor Palestinians want a 2-state solution; the only people who do are the UN and the US. Which means this war won't end until more deaths have occurred and both sides are tired of war. Another year or so?
Which raises the question: how is “winning” defined in a conflict like this?
I think that there are factions on both sides which consider that "winning" equates to "total extermination of the enemy".
And unfortunately have done so for multiple generations, meaning they can never “win” and this will never stop.
The Holy Land …
"The Holy Land …"
Mistranslation from original meaning, full of holes.
👍👍👍
The modern translation would be craters rather than holes.
This war won't end for, at the earliest, barring full-scale nuclear outbreak, another generation or two.
I disagree; I think that a majority of both would accept a two-state solution; it is instead a matter of mistrust. Neither Israelis nor Palestinians believe that the other would live peacefully within their borders. Each side has good reasons for their mistrust.
"It is important to recall that the data collection did not include the northern besieged area of the Gaza Strip, which is reportedly experiencing increasing famine."
Kevin, I get it that you really don't want to believe what is in front of your eyes, but it is real.
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/07/un-experts-declare-famine-has-spread-throughout-gaza-strip
https://www.refugeesinternational.org/reports-briefs/untangling-the-reality-of-famine-in-gaza/
Is this the same UN that passed a resolution saying that Zionism was racism?
The UN has zero credibility on anything involving Israel.
It was passed in 1975 and it "Determines that Zionism is a form of racism and racial discrimination", and revoked in 1991.
I know it is hard work when you are not very smart, but, try to keep up.
In 2022 the UNGA passed 15 resolutions against Israel and 13 TOTAL against all other countries in the world.
This was before the Oct 7 war and despite such great candidates for resolutions as Russia (which invaded Ukraine), Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Iran, Venezuela, and Myanmar.
In short, the UN's anti-Semitism is alive and well, just slightly more politic than in 1975.
https://unwatch.org/2022-2023-unga-resolutions-on-israel-vs-rest-of-the-world/
Don’t feed the troll.
Your sources reference events out to June. The poll, for what it is worth, seems to cover to September. What Kevin has posted does not suggest that things are good, only that they are improving, and what you reference doesn't seem to tell us anything for June to September so doesn't inform us as to the trend to September. Are they actually improving? The poll only suggests it, doesn't prove it. But your sources don't disprove it either.
“After nearly a year of the most brutal pummeling imaginable, only 28% of Gazans still think Hamas can win the war.”
Well then. Since Gazans have a democracy, they can simply vote out Hamas at the next election I suppose. After all, it’s not like issues that command 72% disapproval like “we don't need any gun control measures” survive in our democracy for very long. Next up: public opinion in Russia also says that war with Ukraine (and especially conscripting all the men) is unpopular, so I guess Putin will be winding that down too?
What Gazans think or don’t think doesn’t matter at all. Like most other horrible places to live around the world, Hamas has shown little to no regard for public opinion. (If they did, they wouldn’t be so horrible.)
I would wonder what exactly is considered ""win the war," Specifically what the Arab translation means and how folks are reading it. Is it militarily defeating the IDF or something? Casualty counts? What?
I mean, in some ways it looks they will "win" the war in that they still exist and that the war significantly hurt Israel's international standing.
That was my first thought, as well. In Vietnam, the US won every major battle and controlled the entire country, yet still lost the war. Likewise with the Russians and Afghanistan and later the US and Afghanistan. The key lies in different definitions of "winning".
Simon Sinek poses the difference as a "finite" war vs. an "infinite" war. I'm not going to go into it at length. Look up his videos if you get a chance.
Quibble. If we controlled all of anything, it would have been South Vietnam.
Yes, well, that was the country at the time. It wasn't until we left that Vietnam unified, which was what Ho Chi Minh wanted all along: Vietnam for Vietnamese.
Laugh. You never spent any time in Vietnam, did you?
It was Vietnam for the Communist elite. 800,000 Vietnamese refugees reached other countries. An estimated 200,000 to 400,000 died at sea. Meanwhile, the defeated South Vietnam remained effectively an occupied country for at least 3 decades.
When I was in HCM in 1995 everyone was talking about the American tourist who had tried to apologize to some locals for the war. When they managed to understand that he was apologizing for the US involvement rather than for our abandonment of South Vietnam they beat him so badly that he ended up spending several days in the hospital.
You should get another hobby.
Let me guess... another butthurt liberal who wants to think that the South Vietnamese were happy to see us go.
A few were - the Quislings who worked for the North Vietnamese communists. For the vast majority of South Vietnamese, however, our departure was a devastating betrayal and an utter disaster.
I wonder what they think a win looks like. All the Jews kicked out of the region? Hamas isn’t exactly taking the fight to the Israelis. Now that Lebanon is getting more involved, maybe they have a chance to make Israel as uninhabitable as Gaza. I don’t really have an interest in the outcome. Crazy people killing other crazy people and no one is innocent there. I guess fewer crazy people is the best outcome possible.
At the onset of the Israel invasion into Gaza, there were numerous articles about pending, mass starvation: see Google if your memory is not clear on this point. Yet, after a year, best I can tell there is no starvation in Gaza. In fact, some articles claim that the average calorie intake in Gaza, is close to the pre war level: note, I have no personal knowledge but just sharing information I have read.
To be clear, I am not/was not hoping for starvation, or other forms of Palestine death. Rather, I am pointing out that the information coming out of Gaza, seems to be less than accurate.
I don't know how the information can be incorrect, it's reported by Hamas itself.
I would question the honesty of any terrorist group. They have an interest in exaggerating or outright lying about everything if it's in their interest to do so.
One could certainly say the same about Netanyahu.
Netanyahu has an opposition party and free press to keep him from egregious lies.
Hamas has neither. It may be informative for you to research why that is the case.
Don't feed the troll.
Laugh. Your definition of "troll" seems to be "anyone who is not a Hamasnik".
Steve C isn’t a troll; he doesn’t post to rile others; he riles some here because he strongly supports Israel’s actions in Gaza. I happen to disagree, but he is entitled to argue his case.
Okay, how about totally worthless to respond to by virtue of the fact that they never change their mind about the facts even when evidence contrary to their claims is presented? As the well-known old saw goes you're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts? Also, I have in down in my rolodex as being a troll from when Kevin was still with Mother Jones, and not just on Israel-related topics?
"I don't know how the information can be incorrect, it's reported by Hamas itself."
I don't know why you think that, but it is not the case. These reports and alarms come from UN agencies and humanitarian organizations.
You should try listening to the testimony of American and Canadian doctors who have been there trying to contribute their medical skills.
'As best as I can tell' says it all, about this low-wattage troll.
ScentOfViolets - you seem to love calling me a troll. In this case, because I was honest about the limit to the information I have on Gaza. So tell me:
- do you have near term, personal information, on Gaza?
- do you have an information source on Gaza who is likely superior to the public media?
If not, the only difference between us, I am honest about how I make my insights on Gaza.
👍👍👍👍👍
Because 'as best as I can tell' speaks to what is at the very least willful blindness. There are sources all over that say otherwise, in fact Coby Beck cites one and gives a link a few posts up. I guess you just happened not to see it, right? Just like so many other times 'best as I can tell' and 'I don't see how' posts you've made.
Maybe that's why there more than a few other people who name you troll on this site.
ScentOfViolets
What is your specific point? You disagree with my broad point: that the projected starvation if Gaza has not occurred. You believe there is broad starvation in Gaza?
It is a waste of time to try to argue with ScentOfViolets. They never argue in good faith.
they're a good example of the paraphrase "when you this everyone else a troll, you're the troll".
Since it's quite obvious that I don't say everyone around me is troll, by your own criteria, I can't be one. But I'm glad to have you say out loud that you don't think that, say, MF is a troll, despite many other people believe otherwise. Ye shall be known by the company ye keep 😉
This doesnt really make any sense at all.
There is no reason at all to believe 9-11 month old predictions of mass starvation were dishonest because the mass starvation didnt happen.
The purpose of warning about a possible future catastrophe isnt to get the catastrophe right and impress the 'gotcha trolls' on the internet, the purpose is to stimulate action that will prevent the catastrophe.
Post is wildly off base. This topic does that to a lot of people.
The agencies have very low thresholds for such warnings, for the reasons you describe.
News organizations neglect to transmit that fact to the public.
And some people use the warnings as proof of Israeli intentions, and do not acknowledge the truth when the predictions don’t match reality.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-matters-now-to-dr-aron-troen-dispelling-claims-of-intentional-famine-in-gaza/
If you want to get an honest view, listen to this.
they didn't say the predictions were dishonest, only that thus far, they seem to have not come to pass. which is good.
He didn't use that word, but I think the intent was fairly clear.
The intent of the post was very clearly not ' thank goodness the anticipated starvation didnt happen, what a relief'.
i guess that's subjective interpretation, but not how i read it.
I have thought the same thing. All through this, we heard talk of impending starvation... but as best as I can tell, they have not come to pass (and of course, we agree, this is a good thing). And they made sense; this was a place that depended on imported food, the Israelis announced a food blockade, there was a war going on, we heard stories on how aid trucks were not getting through, etc. what the heck is happening over there?
There are clearly factors at play that just about everyone did not know/did not foresee. Wish I knew what they were.
yeah, if you had asked me with no expertise or special information, i would have predicted widespread starvation and i'm honestly surprised it either isn't happening so far or isn't being reported. which, in a war zone, could very well be the case.
I'd only caution that losing hope and mixed feeling leadership are not the same as losing commitment to war and militancy. Think indeed of Israel right now with Netanyahu. Think of decades now of the entire Mideast conflict.
The only way out is not to beat them into more helplessness, but rather to offer hope, most especially hope for other possibilities.
Israel defines winning as eliminating Hamas as a governing power in Gaza.
If the war ends and the people who committed October 7 are still in power, Israel will have lost.
IF the people who committed Oct 7 are still in power, Israel will have failed to accomplish some of its war aims. There is a big difference between that and "lost".
Israel has killed close to 20,000 Hamas fighters and has certainly injured many more badly enough that they are no longer a threat. A very significant part of Hamas's tunnel network is destroyed. It seems likely that any permanent resolution will tighten up security on the Egyptian border so Hamas can no longer bring in weapons. The idea of allowing Hamas to import cement is now probably a non-starter, making rebuilding their tunnel network much harder.
Looks like a pretty good result even if Yahya Sinwa manages to cling to power.
Of note Israel’s government has a hand in Hamas rising to power in Gaza, supplanting the Palestinian Authority, when natural gas reserves were discovered. Will Israel now let the PA resume governance? Or will an occupation government be in control of those reserves?
The only way this happens is if Israel commits to reasserting a full-scale occupation, which they interestingly seem to be uninterested in going, in the interest of maintaining a permanent war.
I don't see much detailed news about what is happening, but in what sense is there a war in Gaza?
Last year, in the first week Hamas attacked out of Gaza, and Israel pushed them back into Gaza. After that, Hamas shot unguided missiles into Israel proper for a short while. All the action since then has been Israeli army attacks on Gaza and bombing Gaza, plus systematic razing of towns.
This seems better described like the Russians in Chechnya, Israel putting down unrest in Gaza, or like the Ottomans in Armenia...
Austin and scent of violet spend much of their time calling other people names… troll etc. And we wonder why wars go on in the Middle East etc. it’s because of people like them who are so angry at the world. MAGA are similar.
I can’t be bothered to care that much! 😂
This is a less offensive post than other recent ones from Mr. Drum on this subject, but it's still not great.
First of all, the headline is, as they say, a choice, because it assumes that Gazan public opinion matters in some substantial way as if Gaza was a normal democracy where civilian support mattered in the first place. It doesn't, the place is a theocratic military dictatorship and the last election was 18 years ago, before most of the current population was born. So Mr. Drum's insinuation, that these silly Gazans should just surrender their lost cause already, is more phony and patronizing than usual because it's premised on a falsehood.
Mr. Drum's attitude continues to have an undercurrent of "this war is inconvenient and annoying to me, Kevin Drum, and they (the Gazans) should just knock it off already" which is pretty one-sided, ignorant, and narcissistic.
Agreed. "Give up" implies some kind of agency: if Gazans would just give up the war would end. The question was "will Hamas win" which clearly depends on some kind of definition of winning.
History is replete with examples of Arabs knowingly making bad choices out of pride.
No white people would ever do that, eh?
And just what choices do the Gazan civilians have?
> But still: 28%!
Showing that the radical right is far more reality based in Gaza than in the USA. Here, it would be 35%.