Here is the Atlanta Fed's latest projection for real GDP growth in Q3:
Donald Trump beat 3% growth only five times before COVID hit. Joe Biden beat it seven times in his first three years. This will be his ninth overall.
Likewise, GDP grew a total of 8.2% during Trump's first three years and 7.1% overall. It grew 9.0% during Biden's first three years and is on track to grow 12% by the time his term ends.
That's at least two new aircraft carriers plus their associated air wings.
stimulus is stimulus...
True. It's worth noting though that the "multiplier effect" of federal spending on the military is about the lowest of any category of expenditure, so it's not very effective stimulus compared to other things, eg direct payments to not-wealthy individuals or aid to state and local governments.
Which we cannot man, because we don't have enough manpower to do so.
We can build'em, no problem. Steady work good pay, go home to the wife and kids.
But being stationed aboard an aircraft carrier, or flying in an air wing? Months away from home? Low pay?
Yup, build a few more of those bad boys!!!!
This recruitment shortage is national problem, even in the civil services. I wonder why? You gave a pretty good beginning answer. Another point is retention. Why is that? Your answer is a good start again but the real reason is that if you did pick the right "job" you are really valuable on the outside, so why stay in? Maybe some of the delicious GDP could be plowed into personnel instead?
But no. Never. Don't ever pay your heros and heroines.
Don't worry, the Fed will quash this.
I don't think presidents should get much credit (or blame) for long-term structural things.
I'll give them credit for not rocking the proverbial boat and keeping things steady at best, but they can definitely get some blame for kicking a hole in the boat.
Both of the above. Congress has more influence than anyone through its "power of the purse," and the Fed -- which in case anyone forgets is technically a creature of Congress and not of the President -- has some, although it's mostly the ability to slow things down and/or manipulate expectations, but the President doesn't have much at all, other than political jawboning and the ability to sabotage.
That's not to say that the political jawboning is nothing -- if a President pushes hard for or against something, it can have a substantial effect on whether Congress actually DOES it. Look at Obama pushing the Recovery Act or the ACA, or Biden pushing the American Rescue Plan. Or conversely, the endless series of Republican tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, which increase the deficit gigantically, divert resources to speculation, further enrich the already wealthy, yada yada, all of which were championed by their respective Presidents. But at the end of the day, a President is probably the LEAST powerful economic actor of the three.
BUT ... the President gets the blame or credit for EVERYTHING. Hell, the MAGAts are blaming Biden for GAS PRICES. Americans are by and large not very sophisticated in their thinking ...
I agree with that, but I also think there's kind of a limit to how much damage they can do and when. Presidents can really only fuck up when an opportunity arises where their actions do have an impact, such as emergency stimulus and things like that.
But I don't think Trump should get penalized for 2016 through early 2020, just like I don't think Biden should get credited for much of the post-vaccination recovery. Do I think he gets at least some credit (and any penalty) for CHIPS and the IRA? Yes, but assigning full blame/credit to the president only, as the press is wont to do and as Kevin is implying here to some degree, is a bad take.
Something something FAKE NEWS something DEEP STATE something "prove anything with statistics" something.
Also it will be BETTER under the Maximally Orange Leader. Because strength. Or something. Amen.
Nonetheless, Larry Summers still hasn't learned anything.
Still waiting for the Harris ads using Trump's claims of a disastrous economy set against:
-a chart showing the record-breaking stock market;
- news about America's top GDP performance in the world;
- a chart showing flattening inflation;
- charts showing wages and salaries growing faster than at any time during Trump's administration;
- a graphic highlighting the smallest gap in US history between African-American unemployment rate and the national unemployment rate.
At the closing, use Trump's own voice, "I'm a very stable genius".
Dear god why don't they make that ad?
That would be something Democrats could run on, you'd think.
the biden vibescession is over.
the trump recovery has begun.