Just to make things simple, I figure Republicans have already won a Senate seat in Alaska and Democrats have won in Arizona. That makes the Senate 49-49. All that's left, then, is Nevada plus a runoff in Georgia. Right now it's looking like Republicans will win Nevada, so that leaves only the Georgia runoff on December 6. Whoever wins it controls the Senate.
Again! Two Georgia runoffs decided things in 2020 and one Georgia runoff will decide things this year. We should thank the stars that Donald Trump decided to endorse a moron and hand him a primary win. Any ordinary Republican probably would have won already, but with Trump's acolyte in the race we still have a fighting chance. I guess it all depends on which way the libertarians jump.
You are mistaken about Nevada Kevin. A lot of what is left to count is ballots dropped off in Las Vegas, a lot by Culinary Union workers and ballots mailed on election day that are allowed to arrive as late this weekend I think? The Washington Post estimates a good chance that Catherine Cortez Masto will gain enough votes from the remaining to be counted to go ahead of Laxalt.
I hope you are right, but there is a lot to make up. And if they do, you can expect Tangering Palpatine to lose his shit.
Well so far so good Masto and Sisolak have gained votes overnight so the leads have narrowed by quite a bit. There's still a ton of votes left, votes in hand to be counted and an unknown number of mail in ballots that can arrive as late as Saturday and still be considered valid.
It amazes me that people in Nevada are that desperate to be clobbered by another Republican recession, since they’re the state that recession hits first.
WaPo's "model" suggests Masto will prevail in Nevada. So there's still a chance that Democrats could increase their Senate Majority (if they also prevail in Georgia).
I think the betting favorite is probably Warnock, but Republicans will try to nationalize the heck out of that election (control of the Senate is at stake!) both to get their base to the polls AND to reduce the emphasis on candidate quality, and they may well prevail. IOW Republicans might yet flip both Houses.
Remember if Kelly and Masto both win the Democrats will control 50 senate seats so the GOP cannot win control with a victory in the runoff. That will dampen GOP turnout big time.
NYT gives Dems a 55% chance of holding NV and projects a D +0.4 final edge.
This means that things are looking quite good for Cisco Aguilar, who is running for Secretary of State. Masto is currently trailing by 17,803 votes, whereas Aguilar is trailing by only 4,589 votes. So if there are enough Democratic ballots out there to even come close to closing the gap Masto is facing, Aguilar should win. The difference between the races suggests that there are at least a few voters who support Republicans but don't think it would be a good idea to put someone who opposed Democracy in charge of running elections.
The current numbers are:
423,214 - 405,411 Senator
409,291 - 404,702 Secretary of State
Florida has vote-by-mail and gets the votes counted on election day.
Georgia is always likely to have a runoff because they’re the only state in the nation that requires every winner to have over 50% of the total vote. You can’t win with a plurality in Georgia, e.g. even 49%, 26%, 25% isn’t good enough. Gotta have 50% +1 vote. It’s allegedly to keep the black people from ever winning.
Yep I have read that runoffs were a means for Dixiecrats to prevent the wrong folks from winning. At least four states outlawed slavery so there's that.
Louisiana has them as do Mississippi and Texas.
“This system is also used for United States Senate special elections in Mississippi and Texas, and all special elections for partisan offices in Georgia.“
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_primary
But now Maine and Alaska have the same thing, because ranked choice is essentially a bunch of automatic runoffs.
Watch what happens in the House race in Alaska. With 80% of the vote in, the Democrat had 47% and Sarah Palin had 27%. But if Palin picks up the other two candidates’ votes in the ranked choice runoff (one is a conservative Republican and one is a Libertarian), she could still win.
Perhaps but not likely. Begich isn't a Palin supporter. In the previous election half of his vote went to Peltola. She only needs about 20% of his vote this time.
The "instant runoffs", i.e.. rank choice voting, a bit different than actual runoffs to get to 50%+1. In the latter case, a lot more pressure/voter intimidation can happen to keep the right folks in office. The former case was set up so people could vote with their heart for a minor candidate without fear of throwing away their vote on someone who can not win since they can then pick a major candidate if they so choose.
There's a different between old school Dixiecrat runoffs and ranked choice voting. In ranked choice voting voters choose their second choices at the same time they vote for the first time while runoffs require voters to vote two times, get two ballots to the county - more needless obstacles to voting to make sure voting is controlled by rich white guys.
Everything I've read indicates that Peltola will prevail as there are few Palin/Begich voters - apparently Palin voters were leaving their second and third choices blank and a lot of Begich voters were putting down Peltola as their second choice.
The convoluted process you describe will affect both POCs and whites equally. Both must navigate the same procedure. All people of all colors must hurdle the obstacles. Are you saying white people are better at overcoming obstacles than POC?
I'm saying ranked choice voting is better and obviously so for most folks. Runoffs are a pain, you have two elections so two GOTV operations etc. It's easier to get middle class folks out to vote twice than working class folks with no vacation time or job flexibility.
Yet - somehow the two candidates are black. Guess it didn't work very well.
What Georgia does is effectively slow-motion ranked choice voting yes?
The key difference is having two separate elections and the headaches that entails by design. So I'd really argue on the "effectively".
Even though Warnock had a solid percentage point on Walker, I expect Walker to win in the runoff.
The third-party candidate was a libertarian. Those voters will come home to the Republicans.
And people who just couldn’t stand the thought of electing Walker will hold their nose if doing so gives Republicans the Senate.
Right-wingers acutely understand the value of denying the Biden two more years of judicial appointments.
But I will enjoy watching every sanctimonious, hypocritical right-wing preacher in the state championing a man who paid to have his own child aborted and then lied about it and said it wouldn’t have been shameful if he did.
Can Republicans degrade themselves any further?
What is the over/under on the number of judicial appointment hearings Mitch McConnell will hold if he becomes Majority Leader again?
Ted Cruz is campaigning for Walker so I guess that wraps up the eunuch vote.
Could happen. Then again the GOP lost the last Senate runoff. Also, it's not clear control of the Senate is at stake (depends on Nevada). If Masto pulls of a win, that should increase Warnock's chances.
I don't buy your argument. Turn out is the name of the game. A lot of Kemp's vote (fortunately not all of it ) went to Walker. A lot of these people won't show up . The turn out energy should be behind Warnoch just like it was in 2020.
I live in SE Georgia, and you are 100% correct. If everyone votes in the run-off and libertarians follow their natural inclinations (Republicans who want to smoke pot), Walker wins. But runoffs are annoying (believe me!) and there won't be much on the ballot, so a lot of people won't make the effort. Warnock won last time because more (D)s were motivated to vote than (R)s- the conventional wisdom is that Trump's post-election tantrum convinced a lot likely (R) voters it wasn't worth the effort, which helped Warnock.
GOTV is where it's all at.
Yes! A lot of the Kemp vote won't bother voting again especially if Kelly and Masto pull out victories, the control of the senate won't hinge on Walker winning.
Can Republicans degrade themselves any further?
There is no bottom. Every time you think you've hit the absolute dregs, no, you break through into another seemingly bottomless pit of hypocrisy and shamelessness.
That said, I think Warnock stands a good chance of pulling this off. 1. As people have said, the popular governor, Kemp, won't be on the ballot this time. 2. Warnock will drive turnout among Dems because he's popular and a good senator. Walker was a troll candidate put up by Trump who people voted for only because there was an R next to his name and it pwned the libs, not because they actually think he's an inspiring figure. Trump's in the doghouse with a lot of the GOP base right now after most of his top-of-the-line endorsed candidates -- save for J.D. Vance -- failed to cross the finish line on Tuesday. Driving enough turnout on the Republican side to save Walker is going to be a heavy lift, I think.
Evangelicals: "We need a Man of God to win, so we should definitely vote for Walker over Warnock."
Can’t wait until it’s 50/50 again but Mancin votes with the other side to pass some bill the GOP-controlled house sends over.
I fully expect that if Dems eke out a 51 seat majority, "Sinema Verite" will change to Republican or an "independent" who caucuses with them. Her predecessor, John McCain, gained fame as a "maverick"; Sinema's brand is more like "full arsehole."
So much for the all but the House squeaker? https://jabberwocking.com/democrats-pull-out-a-squeaker/
Of is that another Clinton wins Florida in 2016? https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/hillary-clinton-way-ahead-florida/
It's not over yet. There's a bunch of California seats left to be settled and some are actually two Democrats running against each other due to California's "jungle" primaries. So there's still a 50/50 chance that the Democrats get to 218 after all and get to pick the next speaker.
I'd bet on Warnock for four reasons, if the GOP wins the House:
1. there'll be more than enough gridlock anyway to the taste of many Republicans
2. Walker won't have Kemp's coattails this time
3. a whole month to stay out of trouble is a long time for Walker
4. I hope Warnock wins.
Oh, and I forgot the racist vote which won't turn out this time.
Loved #3! What else will we learn about Walker in the interim?
Right now, the odds are really good for the Democrat in Nevada.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada
Jon Ralston thinks the outstanding ballots from Clark County will push Cortez Masto over the top.
If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.
Another few weeks where I cannot watch YouTube or terrestrial television down here in Atlanta. Sigh.
Seriously, though, I would not expect a one vote to one vote ratio between the election and the runoff. The people who will vote in the runoff will be quite different.
Plus there's the problem Georgia Republicans have of are you voting for the Republican or are you voting to support Trump. Walker and Kemp are being pushed to shake hands and for Walker to leave Trump behind. Hard to tell what effect that will have on Georgia Republicans.
Pingback: Bohrleute 33 - Schrödinger's Midterms - Deliberation Daily
Time for Warnock to add seasteads-for-all to his platform.