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10 thoughts on “Germany’s government has fallen

  1. elcste

    The linked article has a weird headline (in case they change it:)

    > German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
    > Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote, deepening the political turbulence in one of the continent’s most powerful economies.

    The government did collapse … two month ago. This vote was planned and expected. As the BBC puts it (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg36pp6dpyo):

    > German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has lost a vote of confidence in parliament, paving the way for early elections on 23 February.

    > Scholz called Monday's vote and had expected to lose it, but calculated that triggering an early election was his best chance of reviving his party's political fortunes.

    > It comes around two months after the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition government, which left the embattled chancellor leading a minority administration.

    1. bethby30

      I get why Germans and others countries who threw out incumbents are fed up — their economies suck. What is infuriating is that so many Americans have been led to believe the US economy is also bad thanks to all the Chicken Littles in our media who obsessed about inflation as if it was just a US problem but downplayed the fact that our economy has grown steadily, the job market is strong, wages have outpaced inflation for two years with the highest gains for the lowest incomes. African American males have record level employment.

      If Trump gets his way people are going to find out what a bad economy is really like.

  2. cmayo

    It would be more correct to say that the governing coalition lost their vote, not that the government itself has fallen. The institutions are very much still there. There wasn't a coup or a revolution.

    1. jdubs

      +1
      Calling it a 'collapse' is certainly a dishonest way to label what happened.

      Imagine if every time a store closed we said the building had collapsed. Dumb.

  3. Joseph Harbin

    The far-right marches on. Nazis of the world unite!

    The explanation you're likely to hear is that people are miserable about the economic damage that the pandemic left in its wake, they are desperate for relief, and they have no alternative than to vote for far-right authoritarians.

    I don't see it that way. Instead, I'd say: The pandemic was an extremely disruptive event for people and for economies around the world. We survived the worst and we've now recovered. We are in decent to very good shape, depending on where you are. The trouble is that many people still believe we are living in the worst of times, even worse that the Great Depression.

    Quibble about the details, but the disconnect between the reality and the perception is vast. Why is that? The news information system has been corrupted and contaminated.

    Look what happened in Romania. The constitutional court annulled the recent election because of an attack by foreign sources spreading disinformation through social media platforms like TikTok.

    In the US, the government estimated that 30% of all political messaging read and spread on social media sites during our election originated in three countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia and l think Iran or China). (I think it was Chris Murphy talking about it on NPR before the election.)

    We spend an awful lot of time worrying about securing our border when it comes to poor immigrants trying to come here to built a better life.

    The greater threat, though, is the "open borders policy" we have allowing foreign actors easy access to control the news and information that the American public consumes.

    Foreign influence extends much further. We have no idea where most of the big election campaign spending comes from. We know Trump and his family have deep ties with Russia. Elon Musk's deals with China and others have an influence on what Twitter promotes or throttles and what Doge will decide is where government needs to cut.

    We're under attack, and losing at the moment. The free world of prosperous and open democracies may be in its later stages, if we don't get wise about what's going on.

    I'm not sure what to do. I'm a free speech/First Amendment guy, but the old solution ("the best antidote to bad speech is more speech") hardly stands a chance when you look at the current landscape. On one side: Big Tech, the billionaire class, foreign actors like Putin (who actively want to destroy the US and our allies), the pre-existing lopsided right-wing skew to much media, and legacy media that is already waving the white flag before the new sheriff comes to town. On the other side: the public, which is easily distracted, mostly powerless, and too often angry about the wrong crap (or wrong people).

    1. Art Eclectic

      I rolled the question through ChatGPT of why there is a rise in authoritarianism around the world.

      Economic Inequality and Insecurity: Growing economic inequality and the sense of insecurity among the middle and working classes can drive support for authoritarian leaders who promise stability, security, and economic growth. Economic crises, unemployment, and stagnant wages can make authoritarianism seem like a viable alternative to perceived ineffective democratic governance.

      Disillusionment with Democracy: Many people are becoming disillusioned with democratic institutions, seeing them as corrupt, inefficient, or unable to address their needs. This disillusionment can lead to support for leaders who offer decisive action and simple solutions to complex problems.

      Identity Politics and Nationalism: The rise of identity politics and nationalism has fueled authoritarianism. Leaders who emphasize national identity, cultural homogeneity, and traditional values often gain support by appealing to people's fears and resentments about globalization, immigration, and cultural change.

      Technological Advances: The use of technology, especially social media, has transformed political communication. Authoritarian leaders and regimes exploit these technologies to spread propaganda, discredit opponents, and manipulate public opinion. Surveillance technologies also enable authoritarian governments to monitor and suppress dissent more effectively.

      Weakening of International Norms: The decline in the influence of international norms and institutions that promote democracy and human rights has emboldened authoritarian leaders. With major powers like the United States and European countries sometimes retreating from their roles as global promoters of democracy, authoritarian regimes face less external pressure to reform.

      Cultural Factors: In some societies, cultural factors such as a preference for strong leadership, collective over individual rights, and a history of centralized authority can make populations more receptive to authoritarianism.

      Polarization and Social Fragmentation: Increasing political polarization and social fragmentation can weaken democratic norms and make authoritarian solutions more appealing. When societies are deeply divided, authoritarian leaders can exploit these divisions to gain and consolidate power.

      Crisis and Fear: Crises, whether economic, social, or security-related, can create conditions ripe for the rise of authoritarianism. Fear of terrorism, crime, and external threats can lead people to trade civil liberties for security, supporting leaders who promise to protect them by any means necessary.

      Charismatic Leadership: The emergence of charismatic leaders who can mobilize popular support and bypass traditional political institutions also plays a role. These leaders often present themselves as outsiders who can break through the gridlock and corruption of the political establishment.

      Global Examples: The success and persistence of authoritarian regimes in countries like China and Russia provide models that other leaders can emulate. These regimes often promote their governance models as more efficient and capable of delivering economic growth and stability compared to democracies.

  4. Altoid

    Meanwhile a real government collapse may actually be getting near in Canada, where the finance minister/deputy prime minister/minister of everything not prime (/s) Freeland resigned from the cabinet this morning.

    A lot of context to this, including historic unpopularity of the Trudeau government and Liberal party, what was expected to be a dismal if not scary mid-year government financial report being released today, continual pressure from the opposition parties for a no-confidence vote, Trudeau toying with simply declaring Parliament done for this session, and of course trying to gear the country up for some kind of response to whatever trump does on the tariff front while the provinces and feds are all at odds among and with each other.

    Freeland's been controversial and the deficit has been ballooning there under the Liberals so at first I was thinking she resigned to avoid getting heat for the bad budgetary results, but her letter seems to say she's really unhappy that Trudeau wants to keep up the free-handed spending to try to buy votes. It's desperation for him because all the polling says Libs will be close to wiped out whenever there's an election. And Poilievre, the opposition leader, is a very canny politician and natural-born opposition guy but seems very closely tied to the Jordan Peterson/Bannonite/Hayekian flavors of right-wingism.

    At least the mail strike there will end tomorrow . . .

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