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GPT-4 will (almost) be your next doctor

You've all seen plenty of punditry about GPT-4, almost all of it based on the generic version available to plebs like us. But that's nothing. There are also dozens of companies that have been building specially trained versions of GPT-4 for different industries ("vertical markets," or "verticals," if you want to sound like you know what you're talking about), and those are really going to be impressive. I'm not sure how long product development takes for this kind of thing, but sometime in the near future we're going to be flooded with specialized GPT bots.

One of the most obvious verticals to go after is health care. Tyler Cowen points today to a review of The GPT-x Revolution in Medicine from Eric Topol, and the money quote is obviously this:

“How well does the AI perform clinically? And my answer is, I’m stunned to say: Better than many doctors I’ve observed.” —Isaac Kohane MD

But Tyler thought this bit in particular was "hilarious":

I’ve thought it would be pretty darn difficult to see machines express empathy, but there are many interactions that suggest this is not only achievable but can even be used to coach clinicians to be more sensitive and empathic with their communication to patients.

The humor here is obvious, but in reality it's nothing to laugh at. The plain fact is that simulating empathy is trivially easy. Politicians and con men do it all the time, and not in especially sophisticated ways. Most of us want to believe that people like us, so we're easily fooled by fake empathy.

On the upside, this will make GPT-ish software a perfect companion for the elderly. Feigning empathy is mainly a matter of extreme patience combined with modest insight into human nature, and GPT-4 has both. A GPT companion for folks in nursing homes—or who are just lonely for any reason—will be a huge hit.

On the downside, gaining the trust of vulnerable people also poses obvious dangers. In the hands of people who like to scam the elderly over the phone it's likely to create havoc.

And for health care more generally, it's likely to become wildly popular. It isn't ready for prime time yet, so hopefully specialized diagnostic bots won't be turned loose on the internet for anyone to use. But in a doctor's office it will be gold, especially if it can be hooked up to high quality voice recognition and speech synthesis. Unlike doctors, who have limited time, a bot can listen to you recite your symptoms for as long as you feel like and then pass them along in summary form to the doctor. The doctor can absorb this quickly, ask a few more questions if necessary, and then pass judgment on the bot's recommendations.

The bot can do its part in any language. It can easily adjust to the personality and preferences of the patient. If its voice retains a bit of its robot heritage it will probably make many patients feel easier about revealing embarrassing details. Add a camera and some imaging capability and it will be able to examine sores or lesions or what have you. And of course, the bot has access to far more knowledge than any human doctor. It can be GP and specialist all rolled into one.

There are drawbacks too, which is why bots have to work with human doctors, not replace them. Right now, GPT's most famous drawback is its habit of "hallucinating," otherwise known as making stuff up. There are probably ways to minimize this in specific settings, but obviously doctors who use GPT have to be keenly aware of this.

Now multiply this by dozens or hundreds of different settings and GPT is set to revolutionize the world. Not instantly, but within a few years. It's not too soon to prepare.

64 thoughts on “GPT-4 will (almost) be your next doctor

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