Even the New York Times now shows Kamala Harris leading by more than three percentage points:
Another couple of points and Harris will be a sure thing—assuming, of course, that the polls aren't way off because Trump voters aren't responding. That's always a potential confounder.
In the past, there has been a hidden Trump vote. I think this year there will be a hidden Harris vote - mostly wives/girlfriends/daughters who won't admit to their MAGA husband/boyfriend/Dad that they're voting for the Black Indian female.
Since 2020, Dems have over-performed the polls in almost every election. With weed and abortion on the ballot in so many states, I expect this trend to continue.
EddieInCA - while I hope you are correct, I think the direction of polling error is unknown. Perhaps I am a pessimist, but primarily over a fear of shy Trump voters, I fear Trump has a modest lead in the electoral college, if the election happened today.
Then again, I am FAR from certain: we will wait and see....
I will tell you that in my part of Arizona, there were zero (literally) signs for TFG anywhere around. Now they are *everywhere.* Not saying he will win the state, but it gives the impression of TONS of support where there wasn't before.
Kevin, did you learn nothing from your infamous Votecastr post on the eve of the 2016 election?
And you think nothing in America has changed since 2016?
Once bitten…
Apparently the thing that has changed is that a truly huge number of people are now happy to vote for the American Hitler even now that his true character is openly known. And Trump has a chance of winning because of the reality that political power in America is apportioned on the basis of land rather than people. So while I can’t say what Kevin’s learned, it’s very clear that many Americans have learned to love Hitler and the American version of the Nazi Party.
"assuming, of course, that the polls aren't way off because Trump voters aren't responding. That's always a potential confounder."
As Nate Cohn explained recently, the polls are overweighting just for this issue, potentially OVER-valuing the embarrassed Trump voter.
Do you have a link for what Cohn said? I'd like to read more.
Don't forget that predictions based on polls of voters assumes no bad-faith legal shenanigans in the swing states. There are plenty of troubling developments in that regard.
Election
nightmonth will be very long.The popular vote is nice, but the electoral college vote is definitive.
One thing that I read is that the following could help Harris: 6 of the 7 main swing states have either a Senate or a Governor's race. In all 6 cases, the polls show the Democrat has a sizeable. Which means Democrats in those States will have two reasons to get out and vote whereas R's will only have one.
Sorry don'r rememebr where I saw the article but thought it was intersting. They also talked about the concepr of vote splitting and showed that it doesn't happen very often.
But there's no reason to think she's getting "another couple of points". Her movement has stalled, there's no debate or other event on the horizon that might be expected to cause such a movement. The striking thing is that the polls have been stable for some time, and whatever the narrow lead means for the popular vote, have us locked into an essential toss-up in the Electoral College.
But there's no reason to think she's getting "another couple of points".
This is overstating things. It's possible Trump could rise in the polls. It's also possible Harris could eke out another point or two. Why? Persuadable and/or undecided voters. No, they aren't huge in number, but it's a mistake to claim they don't exist. They do exist. Most estimates suggest they account for at least ten percent of the electorate. And long story short, late deciders in US elections frequently break for the candidate with weaker name recognition. That dynamic could help Harris.
Even minor shifts in demographic weighting can result in big swings.