Matt Yglesias says today that although serious crime is down, "a lot of lower-level disorder that spiked alongside shootings in 2020 never went back to normal."
Unlike in some areas where I think the Biden administration made clear policy errors, I don’t know that they did anything wrong about this national epidemic of low-level disorder. But for whatever reason, they weren’t willing or able to articulate the basic fact, visible to everyone, that standards of conduct had slipped and that something needed to be done.
I agree that public disorder needs to be policed. Not because it's likely to have any effect on more serious crime, but for its own sake. Civic disorder is annoying at best and scary at worst. There's no reason we should ignore quality-of-life issues like this.
But I'm skeptical of this "epidemic" of disorder. Partly this is because I can't figure out why there should be one. There are a few things that might plausibly underlie low-level disorder, but they're mostly getting better. For example, homelessness has declined everywhere but California until a tiny spike last year:
Aside from recreational marijuana, drug use is down for all age groups.¹ Ditto for alcohol abuse.
Thanks to lower lead poisoning among children, antisocial behavior of all kinds has dropped dramatically among teens:
Add this all up and homelessness is mostly down; drug use is down; teen behavior is better; plus incomes are up and poverty is down. None of this means public disorder hasn't increased. But it does mean it would sure be mysterious if it has.
So what's the evidence for increasing disorder? It's very thin: airline passengers are acting up and traffic deaths are still high. On the other hand, in New York City transit crime is declining and 311 calls to report nuisances have plummeted:
Ruthless shoplifting gangs terrorizing drug stores and supermarkets are in the news regularly, but retailers themselves don't report any rise:
Anecdotally, Charles Fain Lehman visited Chatanooga and reported back: "Even as violent crime has largely receded, there are multiple indicators suggesting that another problem persists: disorder." But if you read his very detailed piece, there's not much there. Even minor crimes are mostly down over the past couple of years.
I just don't know. This is another example of vibes vs. data and I don't know which side to take. It's especially difficult in this case because there's no measure of low-level disorder to look at. It's hard to even come up with credible proxies.
As always, the question isn't whether civic disorder exists. Of course it does. Most big cities have open-air drug markets, homeless encampments, reckless drivers, and people who are just plain annoying. But is there more of it? It sure seems like there's no reason there should be, and what little data we have doesn't support the notion of a big rise. Any thoughts?
¹Marijuana use is flat among teens and up among adults, mostly thanks to legalization.
Back when I was a teen, hippies were public disorder. Marches protesting racism and the Vietnam war were public disorder. Black Panthers openly carrying were public disorder. An important goal was to live in the heads of the establishment and make them afraid.
Now it's the Trumpenproletariat with their MAGA flags and rolling coal, trying to live rent-free in your head. Just say no. Focus on real problems and not public displays by dimwits and cowards.
I'll agree with others who have pointed out that I think perceptions of "disorder" are largely due to social media where images of vandalism, homelessness, drug abuse, etc., proliferate and make it seem like its everywhere. Of course as you look at this stuff, the algorithms push more of it at you. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The pandemic upended a lot of things, but especially psychiatric and drug treatment programs in places like NYC, leaving a lot of unstable people to fend for themselves and self-medicate. Add to that a lot more people just being online regularly and you have persistent impressions of "disorder" even as the actual numbers don't really reflect that.
I must again emphasize that the right approach to anything Yglesias says or does is to ignore it.
I do think there's something to the perception by Americans about homelessness, drug abuse and retail theft being "on the rise." I live in Northwest Philadelphia and had previously lived near Kensington which has rampant drug use in the open. But honestly I think things are about the same as pre pandemic however we did have our police force come down with the "blue flu" during our previous mayors tenure.