The death rate from COVID-19 keeps going up and up in the United States and shows no sign of slowing down. It doesn't have to be this way, of course. These are deaths of choice.
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These are deaths of FREEDOM!! An' LIBURTY!! Cuz I got the RIGHT to get sick if I WANNA, an' if lots o' people around me get sick too, well, that's just the Lord's will.
But, also, Biden owns these deaths. All of them.
Yup. That's how it works. No different than the economy.
Yeah, no, not when you consider how gladly the GQP glommed on to El Jefe's unraked forests rationale for California wildfires, & that is why it's all Newsom's fault.
Not when the proto-GQP put the blame for 9/11 on Bill Climpton, who hadn't been in office for nine months by the time it happened... & out of office eight months when Bush-43 was warned "Osama is poised to strike America".
Not when the mortgage crisis happened because James Earl Carter tried to give too many loans to Black people.
Not when four dead of Ebola in 2014 was worse than a half million dead from the Rona during El Jefe's final year in office.
Not when you have lamestream Log Cabin GQP like Nate Silver, brainwormed Qpie dolls like Matt Gaetz & Marjorie Taylor-Greene, & their fifth column allies in the Fleft like Jon Stewart blaming the Rona on an intentional bioweaponized lableak from China by (full disclosure) my employers in the People's Liberation Army.
Nill. Nobody cares. Don't you get it yet????? Nobody. Obsession over Covid was one of the clues of Democratic under performance last election.
UK daily new infections are rising. That's quite surprising given that the UK's estimated seroprevalence through vaccinations and infections is over 94%.
We're going to have to revise our national and global strategies.
I understand the rush to get booster shots out there, now, but we have the problem of billions of people around the world without a single shot. Seeing how rapidly infection spreads and how short the window between infection and death is, one would think that the priority is to give as many people at least some protection.
And it's time we cut the bullshit about IP property and nationalize/internationalize the production of *every* effective vaccine.
Sooner or later it will dawn upon the victims of the delusion campaign that they were deliberately lied to, and urged to avoid the measures that would have saved them and their loved ones.
Then they will turn upon the people they blame.
Undocumented immigrants.
Or the Jews.
They are all using that miracle cure Ivermectin so no need to worry. And besides getting cured from COVID they will get rid of that pesky case of horse parasites they’ve been dealing with.
They will blame Afghan refugees.
I expect MAGA world will treat our Afghan interpreters the way Portlanders treated Aethiopaens in 1986.
1988, wasn't it?
Might have been.
Knew it was much more recent than Emmett Till, though.
Lolz, nope. Most Afghan refugees won't be here. Maga will love them. Others, nope.
Well, the ones who eventually die will make their deathbed confession, sure.
But you know, survivorship bias plays heavily in many of these folks believing that, because they survived, the deaths were surely exaggerated on purpose.
Sooner or later? That moment arrived some time ago in the US. DeSantis has been blaming his state's misery on unauthorized immigrants, and I've seen headlines indicating similar accusations are being leveled against (I wish this were hard to believe, but it's not) Black Americans.
Seems a lot of democrats want to blame conservative Republicans for it all because they are less vaccinated.
So why is blaming African Americans, to the extent they are less vaccinated, so hard to believe?
Are many not doing the exact same thing re conservatives?
And most of what you will see re " blaming African Americans " is actually just ironic satire from vaccine resistors ( who actually support African Americans who do not want to be vaccinated) . They are making fun of liberals blaming conservatives by doing so and being hypocritical in excusing African Americans.
That you cannot see that and taking it seriously is just maybe proving their point.
@ Martin Stett
Sooner or later? That moment arrived some time ago in the US. DeSantis has been blaming his state's misery on unauthorized immigrants, and I've seen headlines indicating similar accusations are being leveled against (I wish this were hard to believe, but it's not) Black Americans.
Lolz, who cares what non white says. Novel viruses easily transmit. Politics doesn't work there. Why even post this nonsense.
Lolz, the jews invented Capitalism. Jewish Immigrants in ancient greece invented Christianity. Another waste of a post. Nobody cares about Covid. Simply not enough people are getting sick.
we have the problem of billions of people around the world without a single shot. Seeing how rapidly infection spreads and how short the window between infection and death is, one would think that the priority is to give as many people at least some protection.
If, in fact, a booster shot is medically justifiable (IOW if it's a "best practice" in terms of fighting covid), it's awfully difficult in terms of domestic politics to tell people they can't get one because some countries happen to be very poor. And sure, it would be nice if governments could ignore domestic political considerations. It would also be nice if they could perfect nuclear fusion.
Also, given that something like 6.5 billion people still need to be vaccinated, it's not clear how much of an impact third shots for rich country denizens will have on the global inoculation drive. And if the science behind booster shots is sound, eventually people who live in poor countries will likewise need them. I'd say we're better off focusing on boosting production.
Countries with resources are morally obliged to help poorer nations in the fight against covid (true!). Indeed, it is in their interest to do so. But providing that aid need not mean denying their own citizens the strongest possible tools to fight covid (and it had better not mean that, because of the aforementioned politics).
Yup. My cancer survivor dad is worth more to me than any number of Africans or Indians.
Also Jesse Jackson his wife, and Melissa Joan Hart got breakthrough infections this weekend. 3 people. Yes. Small potatoes. Yes.
But these are famous people and the vaccines prevented infection at all against pre-Delta. Since CDC doesn't track breakthroughs, people are going to freak out.
That is because said case is irrelevant. There is no "breakthrough" just poor sampling and over testing.
None of what you're saying has anything to do with expanding production to a global scale.
Not sure I understand your counterpoint. I'm saying: we'd be better off trying to increase production to meet the need for vaccines globally instead of trying to tell people in developed countries they shouldn't do what scientists recommend.
(If that advice on boosters is dodgy, we can have that argument, but apparently CDC feels otherwise).
Also, as I understood it, Pfizer was working on a booster that was specifically targeted towards the Delta variant. Is that what we are talking about now, or are we talking about just a third shot of the current vaccine because the efficacy is waning over time.
Your original response did not speak to increasing production globally. My entire point is that our priority should be directed at expanding production globally, as a means to give as many people at least one dose.
We're still focused too closely to domestic priorities, which means that we're little different than Trump's America First.
Jasper is right here.
There is a rare situation where sending vaccine overseas benefits your own country more than using it yourself.
If we were like new Zealand now, with it mostly controlled and strict border controls, and were a large % of world population ( so denying it to our citizens will be more than a drop in the bucket worldwide), and the vaccine appeared to be good enough on its own to make the virus extinct ( so long term threat is a vaccine resistant mutation), then it might make sense to send it overseas to bring down cases there to lower chance of that variant arising.
None of those conditions apply here and now. For us national interest, vaccine best used here.
Of course, producing more than you need so have a surplus to send overseas is a different thing.
Some may feel that we should still send it overseas if it will help them more than it helps us. As jasper says, not worth discussing. Probably 95% of the nation, republican or Democrat, will disagree. A lot of the ones who would be OK with helping other nations before our own people for the greater good are Christian fundamentalists
Not really. Understand the case problem, understand your poet's problem.
Production constraints on the vaccines are not the result of "bullshit about IP property" ( a redundancy, BTW; "IP" stands for "intellectual property", so "IP property" is short for "intellectual property property"). Production constraints are the result of the fact that getting new production facilities built and running is both difficult and time consuming. The machinery required is not "off the shelf"; it has to be ordered well in advance and custom built for each application. Especially for the mRNA vaccines, existing supply chains are mostly already running at max, so they need to be ramped up to permit increased production , which is difficult and time consuming in itself. Finally, you need trained people to run the new facility, and there are barely enough of them to run the existing facilities. Training more people may be the most time consuming step of all.
In short, the government can nationalize all the vaccine related IP and start building new production facilities, but for all the reasons already listed that won't produce a single extra dose of vaccine for at least a year or two. The existing makers of vaccines are expanding as fast as they can; nationalizing their IP won't speed things up a bit.
D_Ohrk
"Seeing how rapidly infection spreads and how short the window between infection and death is, one would think that the priority is to give as many people at least some protection"
Is this the problem or is the arrival of a new variant every 90 to 120 days the problem? (Yes, I'm aware of the inter relationship)
Is there any safe way outside of metro areas of African and Asian countries to keep the Moderna vaccine cold? Can we get the Pfizer vaccine out to the folks before it expires?
Faucci was talking the vaccine in a pill form by years end. Is that what we should be focusing on instead? Making billions of pills that are stable at room temperature that have a longer shelf life seems a whole lot for feasible than vaccines that expire or need to be stored at abnormally cold temps
Why isn't the federal government doing something? I understood how it was all Trump's fault before, but I thought the grown-ups were going to take effective action. Where is it?
What action do you want the federal government to take that it isn't? Remember, it does not have the legal authority to impose a general vaccination or mask mandate; those are state level functions. The administration has instituted mandates for government employees, members of the military, and federal contractors; expect these to turn into hard vaccine mandates once the FDA gives full approval for a vaccine, which would put it on firmer legal ground.
Whatever Donnie should have done but didn't because he's such an idiot, why isn't Biden doing it?
Do not feed the troll.
Biden is doing many wise things Trump was too dull or stubborn to do.
Well for starters, Biden isn’t tweeting out dumb fucking things like “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” at 2:00 a.m. like a little girl.
I suppose not undercutting CDC guidelines at every possible chance, or not suggesting Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin as valid Covid treatments would also count. Not getting his shot in secret. Things like that.
The Biden admin mounted one of the fastest vaccine rollouts in American history. If aspiring GQP 2024 candidates want to prove their Confederate bona fides to the GQP base by killing off their state’s constituents, don’t put that at Biden’s feet.
It seems to me that the real difficulty is that Biden is expecting and encouraging responsible people to act responsibly but that’s no really going to be remotely adequate. We need to exclude those who are voluntarily unvaccinated from nonessential activities through the use of vaccine passports and mandates.
So, for example, vaccinated people should be allowed on airplanes, in office buildings, restaurants, and stores. Voluntarily unvaccinated people shouldn’t. Or should be required to wear masks.
Travel between places like Florida or Texas and the United States should be heavily restricted. Travel between places which have chosen to embrace the virus rather than fight it should as tightly controlled as possible and this needs to happen before thanksgiving.
Yeah, the difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden is encouraging people to act responsibly, is doing everything legal to get the Federal government to support them in that, and id encouraging states to do likewise, while Trump encouraged people to behave irresponsibly, got in the way of the Federal government supporting that, and even encouraged states to do likewise.
Once again, Republicans making a huge mess and Democrats being expected to clean it up. See also under Afghanistan, Iraq, etc., etc.
Final approval of the vaccines will enable a lot more legal restrictions. One hopes the Biden people will make the most of them, and to flaming hell with the tender fee-fees of the unvaccinated.
Yes, the differences between Trump and Biden administration are massively important. But, as I said, the problem with Biden’s approach is that he’s essentially placing the entire burden of fighting the pandemic on responsible people who are acting responsibly. That really just perpetuates the “culture war” dynamic and gives Republicans the ability to perpetuate the both the craziness and the pandemic.
What’s clearly necessary for success and a return to pre-pandemic normality is to exclude people who are voluntarily unvaccinated from participating in nonessential activities. And forcing them to wear masks for the protection of others around them. The burdens shouldn’t be placed on vaccinated people.
Early in the pandemic wasn’t there a call to severely restrict travel to/from New York?
Indeed there was because the virus was seen as an urban problem of blue states which is a large part of why the Trump administration took the approach ignoring or even cheering on the pandemic (that and the fear of little Donnie Two Scoops having his carefully applied makeup smeared). In particular, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee wanted to ban travel from New York, which is a little ironic.
And it was mainly a problem in those few blue states then, way more than it is just a red state problem today.
But the new york travel ban when he considered it would not have helped that much and all this ban travel from Florida crap now is even stupider.
If the virus is prevalent enough in the community that cases already there and infectious are much greater than the ones that might be entering through travel, then the travel ban will do little- maybe just marginally. If new york had 2% of 20,000,000 people infectious or 400,000, and Florida had 5% of 20,000,000 and 1% of Floridians traveled to NY during that period ( note relevant "period" is the length of infectiousness so maybe a week and 1% is way too high), then additional infectious that enter from Florida are 1% of 5% of 20,000,000 or 10,000 way less than 400,000 already in NY. And really should be extra infectious or 3% not 5% so 6000.
Travel bans only work if you do it BEFORE you have much virus, where it coming from that place would be a bigger part of the problem.
Same thing with cases coming across the southern border. Do they make covid marginally worse? Of course. But not to a really significant extent.
And, for a travel ban to be effective, it really has to be a surprise and "trap " some people out of the country. If it is anticipated or , worse, announced in advance, that defeats the purpose. As everyone wanting to maybe need to travel to your place will all rush back before the ban. See our Europe travel ban.
A virus travel ban is maybe one situation where the govt lying is justified. Because lying is integral to it.
First, let's see if Nick Rolovich gets vaxxx'd, as now required for his job as a Washington State employee.
Where are you getting 94% seroprevelance from? That seems too high. Are you counting all first vaccibe shot ( between 71 and 72%) or full vaccination ( about 62%)?
If you go with the high side of 72% ( and I do not think counting first shot only is right) , then over 71% of unvaccinated had to have got covid. If you go with 62%, then it is 79% . Unreasonably high to me, and I tend to assume a higher multiple of actual cases to reported than most ( although uk multiple should be significantly less than usa as their testing rates are higher).
The uk reported cases rate is about 9.5%. Really hard to get an actual case rate of 79% or even 71% for unvaccinated starting with that . Maybe with aggressive assumptions you might squeeze out 90% but no more.
This number feels like it might come from one of the stupid analyses where they just sum vaccinations and cases assuming no overlap which is dumb.
D' ohrk,
The above was supposed to be a reply to you and asking you where that came from.
Note that I have backed off a bit from my higher multiple case assumptions as, for some areas, I was getting immunity rates so high - like over 95%- and cases still going up.
If I was right the first time, would mean that immunity R is near or even above 1.0 which is bad bad news but I am worrying about that.
See: https://bityl.co/8KhD
Go to page 77, Figure 58
There are two types of tests for antibodies, anti-N and anti-S. Anti-S tests capture both infections and vaccinations. Anti-N tests capture infections only.
FYI,
Some good info on LA county website today.
I am pretty sure this is weekly current rate and not some cumulative rate unadjusted for time crap. So hopefully solid info.
And they break it into two age groups!
They have hospitalization rate for unvaccinated vs vaccinated of 25 times for age 18 to 49 and 12 times for age 50+, which would be effectiveness of 96% and 92%. Nice.
For death rates, it is 17 times for 50+ and vaccinated deaths too small to come to conclusions for 18 to 49. 50+ effectiveness of 94% - good to me.
The actual weekly death rate was .9 for 18-49 unvaccinated and 5.9 for 50+ unvaccinated. .35 for vaccinated 50+ which is not much more than 1/3 of unvacinated 18-49! I have been saying, with covid, being vaccinated takes 30 years off your age. Might need to change that to 40 years.
And then consider that if fully adjusted for age, would be even better. And, even more important, many or probably now a large majority of unvaccinated have natural immunity from having had covid ( also true for vaccinated to a lesser extent and not as big a bias). If you adjust for that, I think the vaccination effectiveness is much much better.
I would discount a bit because I expect la county picked a week to report this that made the vaccine look best. But small factor and other adjustments more important.
Remember the post a while ago re the death multiple by state, which was trash statistics as a I said.
I do think the true multiple ( increased chance of death if vaccinated) is more like 30 or 40 times.
Are you saying it's safer for us to go to Europe than to stay here?
The French and Italians making similar choices just at lower rates?
Not really. France and Italy did adequately but then opened up completely with the predictable explosion of cases (but relied on people to voluntarily wear masks if they were unvaccinated—which, as we’ve seen, is a losing proposition). Now, they are working hard to stop the spread of the virus with normal measures which have proved effective but also they are using vaccine passports to move the merely reluctant to get the vaccine and to exclude “vaccine refuseniks” from nonessential activities. Coddling these people has been an utter disaster. Time to simply exclude them from our society.
Case loads may be starting to level off in some areas, e.g. MO, and the rate of increase is slowing. It almost has to at this point.
But now schools are opening.. I would have expected that to cause an uptick in vaccinations. The Delta variant will cause problems, but basic precautions could make it manageable. And yet, we have people taking unproven horse pills instead of a proven vaccine for free. People banning masks.
Deaths, relative to case or hospitalization load varies a bit from area to area in the US. In some places, deaths are running lower than at the same point in the last wave, in others, not so much. It is, indeed, a choice--but a choice that kills others
I dunno, we're in what's supposed to be the slack season, where in most places people get outdoors, can keep their windows open, etc. I despair of what's going to happen when we get into colds-and-flu season, unless recent upticks in the vaccination rate not only continue but accelerate.
It will hit the idiot communities hardest of course. But that means intolerable strain on their medical care people and facilities. I frankly despair of those too. Again unless things improve rapidly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see scenes in parts of the US like we saw from parts of Italy in the early days: people stacked in hallways, people dying before they can even see a doctor, etc.
I would guess you live in a northern state if you think of summer as when you go outside and open windows. In most of the south, that is when you stay indoors in air conditioning.
Places like Florida and most of Texas are at a disadvantage now compared to new york and Massachusetts. The reverse will be true in November.
Your point is really a defense of the southern red states as it at least partially explains higher relative covid rates today.
" It almost has to at this point".
No it doesn't. If the community R given current conditions and amount of immunity ( vaccine and natural, taking into account waning immunity over time), is over 1.0, then cases will keep going up.
And, if immediate natural immunity, before it wanes , if everybody had it, still produced a community R of 1.0, then cases would max out at everybody and never go away. We would be permanently infected. Presumably that has never happened ever in history for a virus.
But still possible that community R for vaccine immunity is over 1.0.
If cases are peaking here, that means our community R is below 1.0, with the combination we have of vaccine immunity, natural immunity, both immunity and no immunity. If the Rs for those are averaged together ( but probably not just a simple average), the community R should exactly equal 1.0 at the peak. So that tells us something.
No immunity R is high- i.e. R0. What is it with delta on current conditions ( weather, restrictions, etc.)? Not sure but high- maybe 5 to 9. Although zero immunity are a small and shrinking group, the Rs for the three immune groups have to be low enough to get community to 1.0.
I think it is clear that natural immediate immunity R is well below 1.0 as it really has to be . See india where it did peak and fall almost all due to that.
At this point in usa, vaccine immunity should be larger group than natural immunity by a decent margin. Since out community R is just about 1.0 , working out the numbers it seems almost inevitable that;
For preventing spread, natural immunity is more effective than vaccine immunity. In fact, unfortunately, vaccine immunity R alone might be still over 1.0 before waning.
Compare us to the uk. I think the seroprevalence studies that D'Ohrk cited are flawed and give too high a number but ( assuming both D'Ohrk and I are correctly reading what they say), they clearly do show antibody % well in the 90s with the big bulk being vaccine. If their R is still hanging around 1.0, vaccine R just cannot be much below R if at all. If the actual reported figure of 98% or so immune is right, vaccine R has to be above 1.0 to offset a below 1.0 from natural ( has to be true per India)
And usa seems to be at around same R with significantly less vaccine immunity than uk, somewhat more natural and clearly a little more no immunity. So explain that without natural immunity being better than vaccine.
And Isreal, with cases going up and at high levels, just nails the point down.
I am coming to the concluding that, for delta, although the vaccine works great preventing serious sickness and death, not as good for preventing spread. If it reduces chance of spread to 25% of unvaccinated, and R0 is 5, that leaves an R of 1.25, which will not do the job.
So we were never going to be able to vaccinate our way out of this - have to have enough covid infections to get the community R below 1.0. Of course vaccinations allow that to happen with fewer infections if it lowers the uninfected R from say 5 to 1.2.
For usa and uk, not horrible news. We have had a good amount of natural infections so we might have enough. For nations like Australia and new Zealand, not so good.
You hear about "breakthrough" infections because of the man-bites-dog quality--but they're have not been that many. I saw a headline recently noting that half of those vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID now are immuno-compromised.
Vaccines are doing their job well, and I'd bet better than "natural" immunity. Though I suppose you could consider this wave of infections as nature's booster shot.
There is a problem with your analysis. You speak of vaccinated R and unvaccinated R. But there are no such numbers. R always depends not just on biologic immunity levels but on community spreading behaviors. Mobility studies during the pandemic have shown that as cases rise, people restrict their mobility (especially if mandated to, but even, to a lesser extent, if not). This starts to reduce R. In fact, I think a fair reading of the epidemic curves is that behavioral change has driven the rise and fall of the earlier waves.
The point of this is that you cannot infer what "vaccinated R" and "unvaccinated R" are from observing rising, peaked, or falling caseloads. You can only infer an R that is conditional on, among other things, the community's behaviors that affect transmisssion. The latter are unobserved for the most part, and are constantly, and endogenously, changing. And they are probably not comparable from one nation to another (nor even from one US state to another).
Re: Mexican immigrants are bringing in the COVID.
Earlier this week, before imposing more mandatory masking, NM Gov Lujan Grisham held a press conference. discussing the change in poicy The question of illegal immigrants along our southern border bringing in COVID was addressed by Dr David Scrase, head of the Human Services dept. He said that the genetics of the infection are clear -- the COVID that some immigrants have is NOT the COVID that's sweeping the state. What we're seeing, the delta variant, is coming from other parts of the US.
(I'd blame Texas, but Dr Scrase didn't actually say that.)
Another one bites the dust…. Good riddance.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — A conservative talk radio host from Tennessee who had been a vaccine skeptic until he was hospitalized from COVID-19 has died. He was 61. Nashville radio station SuperTalk 99.7 WTN confirmed Phil Valentine’s death in a tweet Saturday.
My condolences to his fellow Nashville alt-right megaphone KKKlay Travis in this difficult time.
Pretty clear the current wave is ending. Positivity is way down and cases started dropping week over week. Never was a big deal outside the south, which is partly due to lacking a winter wave.. Not much death either.
For all the whining about children being more infected, the data doesn't support it. It's the 60-69 demographic which is the worst. Then 70-79 followed closely by 80+. The same ole demo.
Having tried everything else Donald Trump does the right thing and tells crowd to get vaccinated, gets booed,
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-booed-alabama-rally-after-encouraging-crowd-get-covid-19-vaccine-1621811
Trumps people should tell the crowds the far left has historically not liked vaccines....much like they don't like homo's......They may have a identity crisis.
The battle over vaccines is "a centre battle" in the end. Mainstream ideologies fighting over nothing.
Your replacement has arrived. His name is Abdullah. Time for you to bounce.
Could be worse.
His replacement may be a woman named Fatima, or a trans Arab named Nawaz who identifies as them.
He also told the simple assault perpetrators at his rallies that he would pay their legal fees.
Apparently, it got thru to his caravan of hostility that he doesn't always make good on his word.
It’s interesting that Trump chose one of his rallies to encourage vaccination. His rallies consist of his most loyal lunatics. They are counting on him to encourage their belief that the vaccine is a evil Democrat plot to control them.
The people at his rallies would defend him if he shot someone on 5th Avenue but he has toe the line when it comes to their lunatic Q beliefs.
Sometimes, the prophet is fallible. Same reason Martin Luther bitched about the Pope.
El Jefe may speak the divine word of Q, but he is not Q. So, we cannot unquestionably presume all he says comports with the intention of the Lord.
Q is the true voice of the baboon colony, Trump merely, briefly, it's brilliant flaming avatar.
El Jefe Maximo as John the Baptist, making whom Jesus? J.D. Antivaxxx? Haw-Haw Hawley? Prolapse Stefanik?
I think he was just riffing. You won't hear him make that mistake again any time soon.
US vaccination rates are not far behind the other countries in the plot. Are the other countries really doing better on masks and social distancing? Or what is it?
Currently, for having one dose of vaccine:
Canada 73%
UK 71%
France 70%
Italy 69%
Germany 64%
Sweden 64%
USA 60%
I suspect the extreme unevenness of vaccination levels in USA has led to the development of of "regional hotspots" that are driving case counts (and, ultimately, hospitalizations and deaths). I haven't researched this, so it's just a theory on my part, but I do believe that's a big issue when it comes to America's aggregated covid numbers. These regional hotspots, needless to say, are also likely to be characterized by highly lax adherence to commonsense public health measures.
Apparently Donald Trump himself was booed the other day in Alabama when he mentioned he'd gotten vaccinated. When you encourage a death cult to flourish in large swaths of your country, you're gonna get deaths.
Look at the numbers in various places, which you said you have not done.
That theory of what is causing the issue just does not hold up. Look at Israel hugely vaccinated with huge number of cases and going up?
Here in USA, less vaccinated places do, on average, have more cases, but not consistently and not by huge margins. Especially if you adjust for weather effects. Somewhat hard to see clearly here in USA as vaccination benefits are somewhat hidden by natural immunity benefits. Places with high vaccinations tend to have less natural immunity ( even if just from before vaccinations).
When I do drill down, it really does seem that differences in natural immunity are a bigger factor than differences in vaccinations.
For many less vaccinated areas, it is just that a large disadvantage in vaccinations is not offset by a smaller advantage in natural immunity. The range in vaccination rates is larger the the range in natural immunity.
A big part of the issue today is that it is clear now that, with delta, breakthrough vaccine cases are common enough and can be infectious that full vaccination is maybe not enough to stop the spread.
Look at the numbers in various places, which you said you have not done.
I just did so.
There is ample data documenting wide regional variations in the seriousness of community transmission in recent weeks in America. The Old Confederacy in particular is looking disastrous:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
USA's 7 day average covid daily death toll is about 60% higher than that of France, the UK or Spain right now (roughly 800 vs. 500 scaled to US) It's about 3x that of Italy (my hunch is Italy is probably beginning to benefit from high immunity levels).
I agree a lot of this stuff is subtle, and we must resist oversimplification. But sometimes the data really do scream out "trend!" and it seems clear to me America's covid disaster areas (lagging vaccinations, wide disregard for masking, actual hostility to pandemic-mitigation tactics) are adding intensity to the USA's overall covid woes.
I should add: I have no idea what's going on in Israel. Adjusted for population, their 7 day average daily death toll is very close to that of the US. It bears investigation. (Of course with a much smaller population/sample size, anomalies or one-off events would reverberate more loudly).
The onset of the latest covid surge has come at different times, but high growth rates are happening away from the lower Mississippi hot spots, too. The relatively high vaccination rates in the Northeast and on the West Coast will probably mean their surges will go away before reaching the infection rates seen in the South, but for now, there is no doubt that the disease is still able to spread rapidly even in states with 60% fully vaccinated (which is higher than the U.S. average of 51%).
CovidActNow, county view for vaccine and outbreak maps show this to some degree.
Not perfect. In low population states, "urban centers" tend to have higher vaccination rates, but also more people living closer together who are not vaccinated than in their rural areas.
The number for Sweden (one dose) is currently 80.7%. Two doses 63%.
Oh, sorry, just realized that my numbers are percentages of adult population (or rather age 16 and up), not of the whole population. Fully vaccinated in Sweden, out of the whole population, is about 52% I think.
Still better than the US--though apparently Malta is the place to be.
This is GOOD NEWS for JOHN MC--... STURE STUHLE.
If you have to get immunity in the 90% plus range for herd immunity, then the difference between Canada 's 73% and our 60% is huge. Really more like the difference between 27% unvaccinated and 40%.
But also you are looking at total vaccination rate, not just adults. Children simply spread it less anyway so vaccinations in adults are more effective. And, for adults, the unvaccinated difference is more profound. And, re preventing deaths, even greater difference re unvaccinated. The uk has almost no unvaccinated elderly. We have more and they are a good part of who is dying.
Re difference between us and Canada, as Canada had had a lot fewer infections, we likely make it up and more by natural immunity ( especially if it is better than vaccine). But I think Canada has had tougher restrictions internally which has helped some and for summer they have a big weather advantage.
But for Canada, their very strict border controls and quarantine on entrants has made a big difference as it really slowed down delta getting established there.
I might add that it appears the longer delay between first and second dose that many nations used was more long run effective in getting good immunity.
I work for a major tech company based in Texas. To my surprise they announced this week that vaccines are mandatory for all US workers. I assume if you don't get it you are fired, although they didn't say it that bluntly. Six months ago this policy would have bothered me. But not now.
Opa! Another anti(((corporatist))) jeremiad from Haw-Haw Hawley incoming.
& sure to be amplified by Michael Tracey, Walker Bragman, Chapo Craphouse, & Bad Faith Brie.
In response to golack and others re natural immunity vs. Vaccine immunity.
It is not just that breakthrough cases are being overreported as " man bites dog". We really are seeing a decent number of breakthrough cases - more than we hoped. And likely much more than we see because vaccinated tend to have no or few symptoms and never get tested.
And vaccinated that do catch covid can infect others. Some studies have seemed to show that they can reach as high viral loads.
Now these points can be exaggerated. Some then say vaccines are worthless then. The overreaction to the report on viral loads as if vaccinated can spread as easy as others was wrong ( vaccinated viral loads decline much more rapidly from the peak so infectious shorter time).
Vaccines do work to both prevent infection and to prevent someone infected from spreading ( with those effects multiplied together to prevent spread ). Somewhat decently well. But it appears not enough to get the vaccinated R ( what it would be if 100% vaccinated and zero natural immunity) much below 1.0 if at all.
Vaccines could cut spread by 80%, but if R0 is 5, that just gets you to 1.0. And then if immunity wanes?
And we know that natural immunity, at least from catching delta, brings R well below 1.0 from India and other places. Cannot be quite as sure re natural immunity from original re delta, but looks like well below 1.0 too.
If you simply compare different places and their different Rs today, and look at different vaccination rates, estimates of natural immunity and overlap, it is just really hard , looking at the actual data, to not conclude that natural immunity is more effective in stopping spread. Just try to do so with an open mind and see.
And note that many places like uk and Isreal are just about running out of those with no immunity. So major factor now is vaccinated and natural immunity R. Places with high vaccine immunity just are not doing so well unless they also have high natural immunity to do the job ( or unless they have been strict enough to stop delta getting well established).
Golack,
You mention hospitalizations but that is not relevant to R or getting to herd immunity. The vaccine seems extremely effective there.
And I have also, just to check for bad media, skewed science, etc. Asking friends and family ( including plenty of vaccine supporting liberals) about what they have seen re breakthrough cases.
Almost to a person, they say that yes they know of some ( or many) vaccinated persons who got covid ( not huge numbers but a decent number) . But few if any know anyone who got covid twice.
I also asked to check if they know anyone unvaccinated who got covid this year. Just to check as I have said in my family we have vaccine breakthroughs and no unvaccinated infections. And yes, as I expected, my family is a fluke and many know infected unvaccinated. Phee, If I found the opposite, maybe i would have had to consider it q'anon is right.
How can they be right, when "they" are just conservative talking heads. Who cares about "them" then??? I mean, why bring up irrelevance????
Is there a term for someone stupid enough to get one dose of the vaccine then not the second dose figuring one dose is good enough, I've done my bit?
They're not even so stupid as to be eccentric nor not so stupid as to be mediocre.
It's like going to the movies, buying the popcorn, sitting down, watching the previews then leaving before the movie starts and then bragging about how great it was or wasn't depending on what you've heard about it.
[not getting the second dose]
I have wondered that but there is a category where it makes more sense. Those who have had covid and natural immunity and then got one vaccine shot.
For them, maybe having natural immunity and then getting a first shot is as good or better than two shots of vaccine. Basically they do not need a second shot. Their immune system got two stimulus anyway.
Plus, for them, even if a 2nd shot would help significantly, clearly it will help a lot less than a 2nd shot will help with no natural immunity. So anything they are missing is not as big a deal.
Or also someone who catches covid right after the first shot and before they get the 2nd. Is catching covid itself their " 2nd shot " or better. My nephew caught covid after the 1st shot and his doctor told him NOT to get the 2nd shot on schedule.
Actually myself, given that it seems getting the 2nd shot after maybe even 6 months is better, if I had covid 2 1/2 weeks after first shot ( and should feel protected by that) I would certainly use that to delay and get the better spacing.
Now how many of those not having got 2nd shot had covid. No idea have seen nothing trying to answer that and it is important I think.
If you are only talking about those who never had covid, got the 1st shot and not the 2nd, yes, that mystified me. Why? I can understand being vaccine sceptical or even thinking it is some insidious plot ( not saying agree just understand). But, if you do decide to get the 1st shot , what reason other than having had covid, would make you not get the 2nd?
One possibility might be someone who say got the first shot in early April when still a lot of cases. By the time 2nd shot was due, though risk too low and why bother. But should they not be scrambling now to get 2nd? Do not see that.
I do think a few got the mistaken impression that, if they missed the 2nd appointment, then they lost the chance. Had to get the 2nd in 3 weeks or no point. I have explained to one that is wrong and they got the 2nd.
I also wanted to ask if the rate of decline of immunity for those with just a single shot was the same as that for those who've had both, and if, in the case of those who've had covid and one shot the immunity of the one shot decreases at a different rate from the immunity conferred at the same time by having the virus.
Also, there may be some people who had a substantial reaction after the first shot and decided they just didn't want to go through it again.
Yes. I have convinced one of those.
If you had a bad reaction to the first shot, that is a strong indication that you did have covid before. The strong side effects are basically your immune system saying " what this again. Please, really ramping up now". And could be worse than 2nd vaccine with no covid. Basically your body is making antibodies to the virus from natural immunity. And then suddenly your own cells are manufacturing part of the virus? Freaks it out.
But, if you had a bad reaction to shot one, you rarely have one to shot two. So low risk of bad side effects if had them before . At the same time , you might not need the 2nd shot anyway.
So someone missing second shot after bad first shot side effects is likely not a big deal anyway.
My speculation as to what might be happening.
Right from the start, given the huge difference in fatality and sickness rates by age and immune status, and the number of asymptomatic, I suspected covid was actually not a very serious disease and any healthy immune system can deal with it , once it figures it out and can produce good antibodies. But the problem was that, as a new virus, it was extraordinary at hiding out and the immune system had trouble quickly identifying it and start making good antibodies in time. So in some who have weaker slower immune systems, or got an excessive viral load, or both, the virus will have already gotten out of control before the immune system has the tools to fight and it goes crazy with a cykotine storm.
Once you had covid and recovered, not new anymore. And, even with waning or no current antibodies, the immune system can ramp up fast enough. Covid is a wimpy virus for an immune system that knows it.
But what about the vaccine? We know it produces antibodies that focus on the spike protein while natural antibodies focus more on the whole virus ( of course cause they saw it) and are not as focused. And many assumed that this focus was an advantage . But is that true and should you expect it to be?
If the focused vaccine antibody is not as good at recognizing covid ( as only looking at one part) then it is going to react slower. Seems to me focusing on a specific essential part ( the spike) just maybe could be better than natural antibody if it was just hard to defeat the virus once you found it. But I do not think that is covid. It is not a super virus that is hard for an antibody to kill , it is a sneaky little bastard that is hard to detect. Once you figure it out, it ain't tough.
And maybe an antibody developed by the natural immune system looking at the actual whole virus can recognize it better.
Always has seemed to me the height of scientific hubris to believe that you could trick the immune system into producing an antibody after only introducing a part of the virus that is better than the immune system can produce itself reacting to the actual virus. That is an extraordinary claim and requires extraordinary reasons or proof that do not exist.
But what the vaccine antibodies might do, even if they do not work as well, is slow down the virus. They will still kill a lot of virus, just maybe not as much as natural antibodies. But that is all the immune system needs . If infected, the vaccine gives it TIME to see the whole virus and make natural antibodies that really do the job. And that is good enough to prevent almost all serious sickness.
So maybe we have to consider the vaccine as not something that will stop us from getting covid. It is just sort of "training wheels " to get the immune system prepared and allow it to learn how really to fight the virus, then the training wheels are not needed and you got real good natural immunity.
And all of is vaccinated need to be prepared for the possible inevitability that we will get covid. But no biggie as the vaccine has us ready to deal with it.
So maybe we have to consider the vaccine as not something that will stop us from getting covid.
We should have been doing that all along. I certainly have. The clinical trials made clear these vaccines do not reliably stop all transmission (they merely reduce its likelihood -- which, yes, still appears to be the case, even with Delta* -- and severity). And obviously clinical trial results were never particularly likely to be reproduced perfectly in real world conditions. And those initial trials also did not involve the Delta variant.
Maybe this wasn't emphasized enough by the authorities, but from the beginning, the critical value of the vaccines is not in preventing infection, but in rendering infections much less likely to result in hospitalizations or death. That is certainly still the case. (To give one example: not a single death and only 5 hospitalizations resulted from last month's outbreak in Provincetown, MA -- an event that saw approximately 300 fully vaccinated persons become infected).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/30/provincetown-covid-outbreak-vaccinated/
*Clearly fully vaccinated persons can transmit the Delta variant if they suffer a breakthrough case, but A) they're less likely to become infected in the first place, and so are less efficient disease vectors; B) there are some indications that viral load is lower; C) there is some indication their infectious state lasts for a shorter duration.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1
Yes, that is all true.
The messaging from the administration and/or media re Provincetown was horrible. We need all vaccinated to mask again because you can get infected and spread the virus as easily as when you are vaccinated as when you are unvaccinated . That has never been true and Provincetown never showed anything like that. At the time some commenters here were trumpeting just that line as a reason for vaccinated to remask .
I expect the real reason why the administration wanted vaccinated masked was because it is difficult to distinguish unvaccinated from vaccinated and so cannot enforce a masking rule on unvaccinated without forcing vaccinated too. Maybe a perceived greater chance if vaccinated spread played a role a bit but , for political reasons, that was all that was emphasized.
And, as always seems to be the case when lying and misleading, it backfired. Some who might have gotten vaccinated to protect the community or their older friends and family ( but thought their personal risk from covid was too small to make it worth to them personally ) said why bother if the vaccines do not work.
Oh, I've got it.
The virus attacks your cells and forces them to get pregnant and give birth to it's evil, bad seed offspring,
social conservatives, you are being raped!
And it's your own dumb fault, parading around in public with your fuck me lungs flapping around in the air like that like no one would notice.
Anti-vaxxers, you are whores and you deserve it.
Has justin infected you , cld.
These sort of thoughtless hateful screeds are not your style and really not a good look for you.
You are a better person then that.
I am not a better person than that.
You can only get their attention by speaking their language.
This is the kind of thing most of these people think they're hearing from others anyway, and they mostly are not, so actually hearing it will surprise them and they'll remember it, and the next time someone they know dies they'll think about it.
But at this point the scale of mental dysfunction of this entire population has to be addressed directly and explicitly, they are the entire problem in every single problem facing the entire human species, everywhere on Earth, every single time.
Ignoring that consistency is simply disaster.
Now you'll make Ben Roethlisberger want to get COVID.
& that means a lot of pissedoff Yinzers in the comments.
Europe is moving quickly to herd immunity.
No I think not if you are talking about herd immunity for normal conditions without all these restrictions. I.e. normal life.
Seems clear to me that vaccination is not enough. Just does not bring the R down far enough, especially as immunity wanes over time. You need some degree of natural immunity on top, and perhaps a good deal, to get there. Some of which might be vaccinated getting covid too.
Continental Europe is not getting to herd immunity " quickly " because their tougher restrictions keep the infection rate down more than ours. Maybe they are closer to herd immunity because they vaccinated more ( more vaccinated, even if it is not good enough by itself, reduces the amount of natural immunity needed). But they are not getting there quickly to the extent restrictions slow the spread and they run out of new people to vaccinate.
This is especially true for Germany, which has managed so far to have fewer infections.
The us, with a lot fewer restrictions, seems to be just about at herd immunity now as cases peak. Germany has cases going up significantly now, although from a lower base. Us cases up 2% last week Germany up 57%.
The us is just about there with fewer restrictions. How close we are to herd immunity under normal conditions depends on how much you think our restrictions are reducing R. But we should be close and, with out higher case count getting there faster .
Germany, with a higher growth rate with tough restrictions, has a way to go to get to " tough restrictions " herd immunity. And even much further to normal herd immunity . And that is with current immunity, and theirs is not increasing as fast as ours.
Continental Europe is not getting to herd immunity " quickly " because their tougher restrictions keep the infection rate down more than ours.
Sheer speculation on my part from looking at the numbers, but Italy -- which was absolutely ravaged by Covid in the first wave (they also had a nasty mid spring '21 spike in addition to their winter peak), and has an official per capita death toll higher that that of the UK or US -- might be seeing early signs of the approach of proto-heard immunity. Seven day death average is something like 1/3rd of the UK or France and only about a quarter of the USA's. This is despite the fact that their vaccination totals, while good, aren't higher than UK or France. Or, Italy may be benefiting both from high immunity levels (vaccination + covid endemicity) and a high, current level of adherence to distancing/masking. (Best of both worlds).
Yes they are. Compare yry. Last year at this time, cases were surging all out through Europe. Now, not as much. Deaths are low and areas where July spikes happened, are receding.
Yes, and I tend to look at death rates to try to determine estimated actual infections rather than reported confirmed cases, adjusted for age, etc.
Reported confirmed cases too biased by testing rates, testing policies and procedures and who tests to reasonably compare across countries.
At least for more developed countries, the death counts are somewhat more comparable although there I think there are more missed covid deaths in Italy ( from early in 2020). So I too would guess they have around the same number of actual cases as the USA.
But note that more of their natural immunity is from spring 2020. If that is holding up well enough to help get them to herd immunity, good news for us too.
And you say maybe they benefit from best of both worlds , including restrictions. Not sure i agree that restructions help at this point . If we need so much natural immunity to finally get to herd immunity, restrictions only delay the inevitable ( at least once you run out of those to vaccinate). Vaccinations basically only replace a real infection - if vaccine immunity is as good as natural which I increasingly think is not true).
Note that if a virus is less transmissible, so you can reach herd immunity with maybe 40% unvaccinated and uninfected, not being vaccinated makes it more likely that you could " selfishly " still get lucky and manage to be in that 40%. So you, by avoiding the cost or risk of vaccination, made some else get infected to replace you in herd immunity. If a virus is so transmissible that everyone not vaccinated gets it , then all you did by refusing vaccination is to replace your vaccination by your own infection, hurting yourself. The actual successful selfish no vaccine strategy is a " free rider " strategy and delta is not going to allow many of those.
And, if as I suspect, we will need many or most vaccinated to get covid and natural immunity too, the vaccine resistant just made their eventual infection worse.
I think there are more missed covid deaths in Italy ( from early in 2020). So I too would guess they have around the same number of actual cases as the USA.
There's no country on earth that hasn't missed covid deaths. Italy very likely has missed more than most, given the intensity of the pandemic there. I personally think the numbers strongly suggest the US, too, has at minimum missed 100K covid deaths. There's a study done by U Washington (a least 4-months old now at this point) that pretty credibly makes the case that the USA's true covid death toll had already reached 900K. (A bit of an outlier estimate, to be sure, by the arguments made by the study aren't obviously crazy).
The journey to "herd immunity" certainly appears it's going to be bumpier and less straightforward than most of the early predictions were indicating or hoping (given variants, decline of antibodies, etc). It appears the conventional wisdom seems to have coalesced around the idea that herd immunity for covid19 likely entails not a complete absence of illness, but rather smaller, infrequent and localized (but hopefully much less lethal) outbreaks for the foreseeable future. In other words a manageable if still dangerous disease rather than one that quits our species entirely.
Still, as far as I know, arriving at heard immunity (whatever that looks like for covid) would still appear to be in the cards for our species in the fullness of time -- with differing arrival dates depending on the particulars of the country or region in question. Anyway, long story short, some country or another is going to be first. And Italy for my money strikes me as a very likely candidate to cross the finish line early.
(For similar reasons I suspect states like NJ or Massachusetts -- intense pandemics from the beginning combined with robust vaccination rates -- will approach proto herd immunity soonest in the USA).
Part of this is defining what you mean by " herd immunity ". And, from what I can tell, no total scientific consensus on what the term means.
So what I go with is simply you are at herd immunity, at that time with those conditions and that level of community immunity, that R is below 1.0 and cases are going down. Because, if you can keep R below 1.0, cases will eventually go to zero. And people do not get compound interest. If R stays at exactly. 7 and an infection rate period of one week, how long should it take to reduce 100,000,000 cases to zero. Only about one year!
But we rarely see viruses ever go extinct because immunity does not stay strong enough so eventually the lower case rate ( and addtl natural immunity ) and lower vaccinations ( as get complacent), means that declining community immunity as that wanes ( or new births) , means R creeps back over 1.0.
Note with some diseases like measles, immunity is quite good permanently even with vaccine. Which means that, if everyone got their new babies vaccinated, yes we could make measles extinct.
Herd immunity is a somewhat dangerous thought with vaccines . The concept itself makes it long term impossible. The idea is that, if enough people in the community are immune so virus cannot spread and cases go low, your personal risk is minimal even if you have no immunity. So now no personal reason to get vaccinated. But that then erodes the herd immunity built up so back where you started. The problem of the free rider.
The way I define it, herd immunity is not just " in the cards", it is here right now today I think. R is probably just going below 1.0 now. But I doubt it will stay there . If cases go down enough and risk low, many many people will not get boosters because no reason to do so. And, with low case numbers, little addtl natural immunity. While existing immunity wanes. So cases start gonna back up. Eventually you reach an equilibrium when addtl cases are high enough to produce enough natural immunity, along with fear prompting booster vaccinations, to exactly offset waning existing immunity leaving R stating around 1.0 with seasonal fluctuations. What equilibrium number will that be and how many deaths? Just not sure . But wild guess is maybe be 30,000 cases and 30 deaths a day?
Basically another flu strain.
Illustrating how stupidity doesn't actually spread virally because it's already there,
https://i.redd.it/xf2vnnhtzsi71.png
Cumulative through the next day:
Rank Population (millions) Country Cumulative Deaths/Million
1 32.51 Peru 6085
2 9.68 Hungary 3102
3 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2945
4 10.69 Czechia 2843
5 211.05 Brazil 2722
6 2.08 North Macedonia 2720
7 7.00 Bulgaria 2639
8 50.34 Colombia 2468
9 44.78 Argentina 2464
10 5.46 Slovakia 2299
11 7.04 Paraguay 2210
12 11.54 Belgium 2194
13 2.08 Slovenia 2136
14 60.55 Italy 2126
15 4.13 Croatia 2010
16 37.89 Poland 1988
17 127.58 Mexico 1984
18 67.53 United Kingdom 1954
19 18.95 Chile 1934
20 11.69 Tunisia 1927
21 329.06 US 1910
22 17.37 Ecuador 1841
23 46.74 Spain 1779
24 19.36 Romania 1777
25 65.13 France 1742
26 3.46 Uruguay 1738
27 10.23 Portugal 1725
28 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1699
29 4.00 Georgia 1694
30 444.97 EU 1661
31 4.25 Panama 1651
32 2.76 Lithuania 1626
33 2.96 Armenia 1607
34 11.51 Bolivia 1590
35 4.04 Moldova 1574
36 10.04 Sweden 1461
37 58.56 South Africa 1356
38 1.91 Latvia 1347
39 2.49 Namibia 1340
40 1.81 Kosovo 1285
41 43.99 Ukraine 1284
42 10.47 Greece 1275
43 8.59 Switzerland 1273
44 82.91 Iran 1231
45 8.96 Austria 1202
46 145.87 Russia 1186
47 6.86 Lebanon 1169
48 83.52 Germany 1101
49 17.10 Netherlands 1069
50 5.05 Costa Rica 1052
51 4.88 Ireland 1039
52 10.10 Jordan 1019
53 1.33 Estonia 966
54 2.30 Botswana 903
55 9.75 Honduras 882
56 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 878
57 1.15 Eswatini 874
58 2.88 Albania 860
59 1.64 Bahrain 845
60 8.77 Serbia 822
61 4.97 Oman 810
62 8.52 Israel 802
63 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 730
64 37.41 Canada 715
65 17.58 Guatemala 654
66 83.43 Turkey 654
67 18.55 Kazakhstan 632
68 6.78 Libya 598
69 4.21 Kuwait 571
70 10.05 Azerbaijan 528
And the how are they doing lately:
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 4.00 Georgia 13.05
2 1.15 Eswatini 8.71
3 11.69 Tunisia 8.67
4 21.32 Sri Lanka 8.51
5 2.08 North Macedonia 7.95
6 31.95 Malaysia 7.41
7 82.91 Iran 7.25
8 18.55 Kazakhstan 7.19
9 2.30 Botswana 6.70
10 11.33 Cuba 6.57
11 127.58 Mexico 5.59
12 58.56 South Africa 5.56
13 145.87 Russia 5.30
14 270.63 Indonesia 4.64
15 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 4.61
16 44.78 Argentina 4.18
17 2.49 Namibia 3.72
18 96.46 Vietnam 3.71
19 211.05 Brazil 3.70
20 69.04 Thailand 3.66
21 2.95 Jamaica 3.44
22 1.81 Kosovo 3.31
23 1.18 Cyprus 3.27
24 9.75 Honduras 3.24
25 6.78 Libya 3.10
26 329.06 US 3.04
27 36.47 Morocco 3.04
28 54.05 Burma 2.94
29 5.05 Costa Rica 2.86
30 17.58 Guatemala 2.80
31 2.96 Armenia 2.75
32 8.52 Israel 2.72
33 7.04 Paraguay 2.68
34 7.00 Bulgaria 2.67
35 83.43 Turkey 2.35
36 10.05 Azerbaijan 2.20
37 10.47 Greece 2.18
38 50.34 Colombia 2.15
39 46.74 Spain 2.04
40 18.95 Chile 2.04
41 1.29 Timor-Leste 1.99
42 4.25 Panama 1.95
43 4.04 Moldova 1.94
44 108.12 Philippines 1.94
45 32.51 Peru 1.87
46 2.76 Lithuania 1.86
47 39.31 Iraq 1.86
48 2.35 Gambia 1.52
49 67.53 United Kingdom 1.46
50 11.51 Bolivia 1.45
51 14.65 Zimbabwe 1.37
52 65.13 France 1.31
53 9.45 Belarus 1.16
54 3.23 Mongolia 1.15
55 10.10 Jordan 1.13
56 6.45 El Salvador 1.13
57 43.99 Ukraine 1.10
58 4.97 Oman 1.09
59 28.61 Nepal 1.08
60 10.23 Portugal 1.08
61 4.53 Mauritania 1.04
62 163.05 Bangladesh 0.97
63 1.92 Guinea-Bissau 0.97
64 17.37 Ecuador 0.95
65 16.49 Cambodia 0.94
66 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.91
67 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 0.90
68 6.42 Kyrgyzstan 0.85
69 444.97 EU 0.82
70 18.63 Malawi 0.81
71 8.77 Serbia 0.765
72 60.55 Italy 0.753
73 6.86 Lebanon 0.729
74 12.63 Rwanda 0.701
75 43.05 Algeria 0.697
76 2.88 Albania 0.694
77 4.13 Croatia 0.623
78 16.30 Senegal 0.622
79 1.91 Latvia 0.599
80 3.46 Uruguay 0.536
81 4.21 Kuwait 0.509
82 2.08 Slovenia 0.481
83 17.10 Netherlands 0.476
84 19.36 Romania 0.472
85 4.88 Ireland 0.439
86 28.52 Venezuela 0.436
87 52.57 Kenya 0.427
88 11.54 Belgium 0.409
89 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 0.401
90 30.37 Mozambique 0.395
91 37.41 Canada 0.386
92 17.86 Zambia 0.360
93 216.57 Pakistan 0.346
94 1366.42 India 0.326
95 15.44 Somalia 0.324
96 12.77 Guinea 0.302
97 34.27 Saudi Arabia 0.288
98 17.07 Syria 0.285
99 5.53 Finland 0.284
100 8.59 Switzerland 0.283
101 9.77 United Arab Emirates 0.278
102 126.86 Japan 0.254
103 31.83 Angola 0.238
104 28.83 Ghana 0.228
105 1.33 Estonia 0.216
106 38.04 Afghanistan 0.203
107 2.13 Lesotho 0.202
108 32.98 Uzbekistan 0.195
109 83.52 Germany 0.186
110 1.64 Bahrain 0.174
111 10.69 Czechia 0.160
112 44.27 Uganda 0.158
113 51.23 Korea, South 0.153
114 5.77 Denmark 0.149
115 10.04 Sweden 0.142
116 8.08 Togo 0.124
117 5.80 Singapore 0.123
118 10.74 Dominican Republic 0.120
119 1.20 Mauritius 0.119
120 9.68 Hungary 0.118