It's been a while since I've put up a COVID-19 chart, so let's make up for lost time. The good news, I guess is that deaths in the US seem to finally be falling—maybe. The bad news, as usual, is that thanks to our low vaccination rates we're still dying at far higher rates than our peer countries in the rest of the world.
I'm probably a little out of the loop on this, but why is the UK at double the rate of the rest of Europe?
The number 10 comes to mind as an explanation for a goodly part of the British problem.
The "rest of Europe" is not well represented by Germany, France, Italy, and Sweden. Over the past three months, all of those countries are have lower death rates than the EU average, which is itself much better than the rate for Europe outside the EU. The UK rate is in between, but closer to the EU average than to the rest of non-EU Europe.
Non-EU Europe has a lower rate than the United States, but it's close.
Don't shittalk Sweden or Sture Stool will appear.
I meant to say Sweden is wonderful beyond compare.
If by "the rest of Europe" you mean the EU, the 7-day trailing average for the EU for the same day covered by Kevin in this post is 2.19 per million, per day. Per the Johns Hopkins data pulled into: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vPxCBqCXsRvjR3PdLn0vXdJQF3wao-Ry5bS3Fe_9Qxs/edit?usp=sharing
What I don’t understand is why the death rate as compared to the case rate seems to be about the same. Shouldn’t that be going down by quite a bit? If we are ever going to get to a point where the disease is more of a concern like the flu is a concern it would seem to me that it would involve a treatment that keeps people from dying. As I understand it, monoclonal antibodies are that treatment and they work better when given early. Is that not being done?
Just a guess but the case rate is probably deflated because of lack of testing.
Plus one!
why the death rate as compared to the case rate seems to be about the same.
"Seems" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here: as others have mentioned, the US is surely under-diagnosing covid.
Also, US is characterized by: more poverty, lack of a truly universal healthcare system, weak public services in general (including public health), higher comorbidities/more obesity. Plenty of factors. I also have a theory that the turbo-charged regionality of the pandemic in America in effect creates hotspots that drive the overall death rate higher (among other reasons because these hotspots have overstressed hospitals). All things equal, I expect intensified regional variation in community spread is a negative for health outcomes.
Death rate is lower than that. Lags, baby, lags.
I wonder if there's any way to suss out the effect of the Murdoch english press provax stance compared to the US Fox antvax tack?
The infection fatality rate is certainly lower than the case fatality rate because testing does not pick up all infections. But that effect should be declining from earlier periods as more of the testing is not from those who are sick and we pick up a higher %age of infections.
And the lag effect on reported deaths vs reported cases is real too. And note that the lag is not consistent - some deaths take months to report. Whicg means when cases decline fast, you do not expect to see deaths decline as fast , the declining curve on deaths is flatter. So the case fatality rate tends to be a bit higher as cases drop , even taking into account average lag.
But all those points considered, the case fatality rate has stayed disappointingly higher than you would have hoped given that more and more %age of cases should be breakthrough cases on vaccine or natural immunity where you expect some protection from death.
Except in the uk. Their Cass fatality rate has stayed low - lower than makes sense - with a super high case rate . More than can be explained by vaccination differences. Something different is happening there.
Underdiagnosing in the US is the simplest explanation. Occam's razor.
And looks like Connecticut took a surprising turn back down and is third state to make it to yellow . Three now with fla now lowest passing Hawaii. A bunch of southern states should be getting there soon.
My state of CA which looked like it was going to be one of the first yellow states weeks ago is totally stalled out and getting passed by all the southern states .
But, overall, basically no state has clearly increasing cases anymore. The few still with increasing numbers are so marginal cannot be sure . But a lot are flat or just below.
Cases are irrelevant
Vaccination rates in all countries in the graph are within a pretty narrow range, actually. The US is not far behind Germany or Sweden at all. The differences in mortality may have more to do with discipline in mask-wearing. Or with something else altogether. Vaccination does not prevent the spread of the virus and is one tool in the box, not the only one.
The world has experienced five COVID waves, and the United States has experienced the same five waves. (Not every state exactly mirrors the overall US pattern, but most do, and not every country mirrors the world, but again, most do.) If I understand Kevin correctly, the first four waves were Trump's fault, and the fifth is the fault of the American people. I'm not sure if that applies to the worldwide waves, or just to the corresponding ones in the US.
The broader look at the overalls:
Rank Population (millions) Country Cumulative Deaths/Million
1 32.51 Peru 6155
2 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3460
3 2.08 North Macedonia 3394
4 7.00 Bulgaria 3349
5 9.68 Hungary 3161
6 211.05 Brazil 2873
7 10.69 Czechia 2867
8 44.78 Argentina 2587
9 50.34 Colombia 2526
10 4.00 Georgia 2460
11 5.46 Slovakia 2370
12 19.36 Romania 2350
13 7.04 Paraguay 2304
14 2.08 Slovenia 2263
15 329.06 US 2246
16 11.54 Belgium 2246
17 127.58 Mexico 2246
18 4.13 Croatia 2201
19 60.55 Italy 2178
20 11.69 Tunisia 2156
21 67.53 United Kingdom 2077
22 2.96 Armenia 2066
23 2.76 Lithuania 2063
24 37.89 Poland 2020
25 18.95 Chile 1989
26 17.37 Ecuador 1897
27 4.04 Moldova 1874
28 46.74 Spain 1867
29 65.13 France 1819
30 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 1799
31 10.23 Portugal 1774
32 444.97 EU 1756
33 3.46 Uruguay 1755
34 4.25 Panama 1722
35 1.81 Kosovo 1643
36 11.51 Bolivia 1642
37 1.91 Latvia 1613
38 43.99 Ukraine 1571
39 145.87 Russia 1567
40 58.56 South Africa 1520
41 82.91 Iran 1514
42 10.47 Greece 1500
43 10.04 Sweden 1495
44 2.49 Namibia 1423
45 5.05 Costa Rica 1386
46 8.59 Switzerland 1304
47 8.96 Austria 1260
48 6.86 Lebanon 1235
49 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 1186
50 83.52 Germany 1142
A broader look at the 7-day trailing average of per-day per-million:
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 19.36 Romania 21.30
2 7.00 Bulgaria 16.90
3 2.96 Armenia 13.04
4 43.99 Ukraine 12.25
5 1.91 Latvia 11.69
6 2.76 Lithuania 10.56
7 4.00 Georgia 10.19
8 4.04 Moldova 9.43
9 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 8.44
10 145.87 Russia 7.12
11 8.77 Serbia 6.84
12 2.08 North Macedonia 6.45
13 4.13 Croatia 5.60
14 329.06 US 4.58
15 1.33 Estonia 4.53
16 3.23 Mongolia 4.34
17 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 4.30
18 2.08 Slovenia 4.05
19 10.47 Greece 3.55
20 5.05 Costa Rica 3.31
21 2.95 Jamaica 2.96
22 17.58 Guatemala 2.93
23 9.68 Hungary 2.85
24 83.43 Turkey 2.57
25 2.88 Albania 2.33
26 31.95 Malaysia 2.30
27 6.78 Libya 2.30
28 5.80 Singapore 2.29
29 1.20 Mauritius 2.26
30 444.97 EU 2.19
31 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 2.17
32 67.53 United Kingdom 2.09
33 10.05 Azerbaijan 2.08
34 82.91 Iran 1.89
35 5.46 Slovakia 1.86
36 4.88 Ireland 1.84
37 6.45 El Salvador 1.79
38 127.58 Mexico 1.76
39 18.55 Kazakhstan 1.73
40 9.45 Belarus 1.72
41 211.05 Brazil 1.62
42 4.98 West Bank and Gaza 1.55
43 108.12 Philippines 1.46
44 11.54 Belgium 1.45
45 37.89 Poland 1.36
46 11.69 Tunisia 1.34
47 8.96 Austria 1.32
48 11.33 Cuba 1.26
49 10.10 Jordan 1.15
50 10.69 Czechia 1.04
Interesting study out of the UK:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/uk-study-finds-vaccinated-people-easily-transmit-delta-variant-households-2021-10-28/
{SNIPS}
They found infections in the vaccinated cleared more quickly,********* but the peak viral load remained similar******** to the unvaccinated.........................The study, which enrolled 621 participants, found that of 205 household contacts of people with Delta COVID-19 infection, *************38% of household contacts who were unvaccinated went on to test positive, compared to 25% of vaccinated contacts.**************
Vaccinated contacts who tested positive for COVID-19 on average had received their shots longer ago than those who tested negative, which the authors said was evidence of waning immunity and supported the need for booster shots
{snip}
This was a CONTROLLED group
What happens in the REAL WORLD?
You get vaccinated, the medicine works, prevents serious cases............so 4 months down the road that case of sniffles you got you just didn't get tested to see if it was COVID
While YOU passed on the virus to HUNDREDS of other people because the viral load you CARRIED was still way too high.
Again, and again and again this virus has surprised us
Now the CDC is starting to sound like the Israeli's. They started saying there may be a need for a 4th shot.
It didn't get much press but they are publicly stating this as a possibility
Herd immunity will NEVER be possible in this country
NEVER.
We went from January to June thinking things were calming down - thank God for the vaccines !!!! Only to have our heads slapped hard again by a new variant.
Congratulations folks
BTW new cases COUNT and they count for a LOT. Now we will need to look at new cases to see which variants are now spreading.............
Think about my post from last night
The Brits are saying a totally vaccinated person has got a 1 in 4 change of getting a break through case. They probably will not die or require hospitalization. That's the GOOD news.
The Bad news?
Like children in the native, Alpha and Beta waves we THOUGHT their lives could go about normally. Their cases would be mild
Now we have the reverse happening. Those who we think are safe are not. Sure, they have a 25% chance of break throughs - that is a damn LOT HIGHER than the Israeli study that concluded prior to Delta that break throughs amounted to 0.12% eh????
This changes the game, especially for the UN-vaccinated. They can no longer rely on their "wimpy democrat" family members who were willing to get the shots to protect them from their own stupidity. Now, with a 1 in 4 chance of getting a repeat case the vaccinated should STILL avoid crowds, wear a mask and social distance.
It's also time for the drug companies to modify their vaccines to be more effective, over a longer period of time against a virus that poses a viral load greater than 250% MORE than what they were designed FOR !!!
If you REMAIN un-vaccinated you WILL get COVID. Your children may get COVID and if this thing is mutating as fast as they say it is you could DIE because we have no idea what this thing is morphing into.
If you HAVE been vaccinated, and it has been over 4 months ago? You need to act, and protect yourself like you were UN-vaccinated until you get your booster - but even then you need to be extra cautious.
We did the RIGHT thing by targeting those at risk with the early rounds of the vaccines. From Jan to March - THIS GROUP contains those who were at the most risk for THOSE variants.
The game has changed. For all intents and purposes all those vax'd early should consider themselves un protected
Lets talk even more numbers
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/rise-in-breakthrough-deaths-should-not-cast-doubt-on-vaccines-experts-say
{snip}
Between Oct. 11 and Oct. 18, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s cumulative count for breakthrough deaths jumped by 51% from 7,178 to 10,857. Some conservatives and vaccine skeptics have pointed to the seemingly drastic increase to bolster arguments against mandatory immunization policies..................
...............The page tracking breakthrough deaths only includes data from 16 state and local health departments, and it is not intended to provide an exact count of U.S. cases at a given time........................
The death of former Secretary of State Colin Powell last week from COVID-19 complications despite being fully vaccinated cast fresh scrutiny on the risk of breakthrough infections. However, Powell was 84, had Parkinson’s disease, and had been treated for multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer that can weaken the immune system.
..........“Colin Powell was probably at as high risk as you could possibly be for a breakthrough infection with COVID,” said Dr. Timothy Murphy............
..........
.......A CDC analysis conducted in 13 U.S. jurisdictions as the delta variant began to spread between mid-June and mid-July found the fully vaccinated accounted for 16% of deaths, 14% of hospitalizations, and 18% of all new infections. Researchers said the frequency of breakthrough cases was higher than expected and reflected a possible decline in vaccine efficacy, but the vaccines still provided substantial protection against severe outcomes.
That trajectory continued through the summer. In 16 jurisdictions representing 30% of the U.S. population, the death rate among the vaccinated jumped from 0.1 per 100,000 people in late June to 1.2 per 100,000 at the height of the delta surge in August. Among the unvaccinated, though, the death rate per 100,000 people went from 1.9 to 13 during the same period.
According to a CDC report published earlier this month, 85% of breakthrough deaths in the U.S. through August occurred in adults 65 and older. Studies have also shown people with underlying medical conditions are at greater risk for severe breakthrough infections or death.
{snip}
I INCLUDED the portion of the story about Colin Powell for a couple of reasons.
First he was sick, He had multiple myeloma The ACS expects 35,000 NEW cases of this cancer in 2021 on TOP of those that already have it.
Powell also had Parkinsons. Not a marker for COVID but think about this. Almost 1M people have it already here in the US.
And Powell was 84. Estimates of people in the US over the age of 80 CURRENTLY range from 13M to 15M.
"We" are probably the most IGNORANT country on the planet when it comes to this disease. We allowed individual freedom(s) to interfere with OTHER peoples health and well being. At what cost? Currently over 700K lives with more dying each day. Sure, there have ALWAYS been a very small % of people that cannot take a vaccine, for health reasons. There's also a very small % that will not do it for religious reasons. I get that too.
But anyone else? Making a political statement?
You need your head examined.
Meant to add
The above story ONLY discusses 13 jurisdictions in the entire country
13.................I have no idea which ares they are but, suffice it to say the evidence is pointing more and more to this disease is more out of control than we admit to,