In order to pay for his social welfare bill, President Biden plans to crack down on tax cheats. He thinks this will save about $300 billion, but the Congressional Budget Office is expected to disagree, scoring it in the neighborhood of $200 billion. If this happens, it means that the bill would increase the deficit and Democrats would need to cut back on spending to return it to deficit neutrality.
Lefties are crying foul over this, pointing out that Republicans increased the deficit by $1.9 trillion when they passed their 2017 tax bill. Where was the CBO then?
This is a misunderstanding. In 2017 Republicans wrote a $1.5 trillion deficit directly into the reconciliation instructions. The CBO then scored their bill at $1.9 trillion, but Republicans ignored the CBO and produced their own estimates after jiggling around some of the details of the tax cut. Then they passed the bill. They did this because they never really cared about deficits in the first place.
So can't Democrats do the same thing? Sure, except that they do care about deficits. Or, to be more precise, Joe Manchin cares about deficits. Legally, Democrats can produce their own estimate of the bill's impact on the deficit, but it doesn't matter. It won't pass unless Manchin is on board.
So the CBO score is only important if Manchin thinks it is. Which apparently he does. That's it. That's the only reason the CBO score matters.
Of course if it matters to Joe Manchin, then Dems will have to take that into account. But, the CBO is important in it's own right. President Biden's administration wants to sell the BBB bill as a means to cut the deficit which can help with inflation too. They are citing Nobel Laureate's as evidence for this claim. And, I really hope they are right.
Dubious. It rather feels like the Leftt of the Democrats is making 1970s errors all over again. Prudence suggests caution when one is seeing the signs of real sustained inflation acceleration. Of course a return to healthier inflation levels after years of flirting with Depression, but publics all over the world really really hate rapid acceleration of inflation, and so one ignores or waives away at ones political peril.
"Left" is dialectical. bbb isn't that popular but Biden plays game theory. It's why he basically put a gun to liberals head and told them to pass infrastructure, which they don't care about. Not 1970's at all.
How will the BBB drive inflation in the short term?
See, if Democrats had even a smidgeon of the political smarts Republicans possess, they'd withdraw this monstrosity of a socialism-inducing bill and introduce an identical one called FFF (Fight 'Flation Furiously).
👍👍👍👍
Perfect. Dems have basically no skill at meme creation. They take themselves way too seriously. After all, most voters aren't all that serious. They fall for Republican memes all the time. Welfare queen, death tax, death panels - all lies, but very effective.
Not just Manchin. The Gottheimer group in the House has made it clear they'll demand changes to accommodate the CBO costings.
Or, to be more precise, Joe Manchin cares about deficits.
Or, to be even more precise, Joe Manchin claims he cares about deficits. Or inflation. Or ... something something mumble shuffle something.
Kevin I'd either not accurate or misleading in his 2017 description.
1) kevin glosses over the changes to that bill to get it below 1.5 trillion after being scored higher. And says they just " jiggled around some details ". Which makes it sound like they really just changed very little and just did some gimmicks. There was significant changes and concessions made in that process including increasing somewhat the original proposed tax rates . There were some hard and difficult negotiations between Republicans over what to change.
And democrats can do the same, if we are only talking about 100 billion. But are we? From what I hear, this 100 billion is coming from a more realistic cbo score of the irs expansion idea. But what about all the other parts. Have they been scored the same as biden projected ( tend to doubt that ) or is that other shoe yet to drop?
If 100 billion of changes is all that democrats need to find, probably doable with difficulty. If it is 300 billion in the end?
And one reason why democrats are in greater difficulty is they just seemed to ignore the fact that cbo had not scored the bill and just assumed that their own estimates were good ( they NEVER are). And negotiated with each other and made all the hard choices BEFORE they got final numbers. Making it hard to now reopen those negotiations.
And note I have been making this point here for months, before you heard anything about it in the news. And been ignored. It was obvious that this problem was coming .
But no reason democrats cannot do what Republicans did in 2017 , except their internal negotiations are more difficult ( partly because their majority is so thin ).
2) second, the only reason why Republicans could use reconciliation to have a projected 1.5 trillion cumulative deficit increase is NOT because they put it in the reconciliation package. Paygo rules would have triggered automatic offsetting spending cuts of 150 billion per year across the board to offset. Except that paygo was waived in the continuing resolution , which did have to get by filibuster and got enough democratic votes to do so.
Basically in 2017, three options
A) no change at all
B) the reconciliation tax cuts and 150 billion per year cuts to existing spending for ten years
C) the reconciliation tax cuts and increase deficit of 150 billion per year over ten years
Republicans preferred c over b but b over a. And as they had majority, and democrats could only filibuster, democrats could only choose b or c and they chose c.
This year , if Republicans can choose between bbb bill and offsetting 150 billion a year spending cuts , or bbb plus deficit increase, they will choose the paygo spending cuts and will not agree to waive, I think.
So that choice is not the same as 2017 in that way.
Paygo, by mandating automatic spending cuts but NOT automatic tax increases, is I some way biased toward Republicans and their negotiating position.
Concern Troll is concerned.
Isn't a concern troll here someone who would be a partisan Democrat who likes the bill and wants biden to succeed? But posts silly worries fretting over imaginary problems?
Since I am not a partisan Democrat ( although not a partisan republican either but have leaned more that way lately at least without trump) and would not want the bill to pass, the concern part is plain wrong.
I am pointing out problems and also maybe mentioning some fixes . But I am certainly not concerned with the problems and would be happy if could not fix them and it failed .
And I really do try to offer actual logical analysis, right or wrong as you can judge. And do my best to not do it with extreme language designed simply to get am emotional response, which is a troll .
Yes, I absolutely do challenge the thinking of many here and usually do give a more republican perspective. Largely because, this being a mostly democratic site, I do not have to make democratic points as they are already made. I do try to throw in some more democratic oriented points nobody else had ( deliberately trying to find them sometimes) to illustrate where I am . Such as here pointing out how paygo does seem to unfairly hurt democrats in negotiations.
But if you consider someone a troll just because they offer a contrary opinion to yours and what the lean of the site is , that is sad . Then all you want is an echo chamber and continual confirmation of what you think and never ever have to consider you might be wrong.
Even if you disagree , having it challenged and maybe actually having to give your logical thoughtful reasons why you disagree should if anything help improve your thinking and ability to justify your position.
And it is always valuable to better understand why the other side you disagree with thinks the way they do . I do find Republicans understand the democratic position better than vice versa simply because they have at least some exposure to it ( even if they try to not) through the more liberal media . While many democrats live in such a cuccoon they do not understand why Republicans take a position at all. And that is a small factor helping Republicans win elections.
Your "I am not a concern troll" teeshirt is raising a lot of questions already answered by your shirt.
If you're saying the Republican position is that they oppose raising the deficit, then I'm going to laugh in your face.
Isn’t the Democratic outrage partially over the fact the CBO announced they’ll ignore a key revenue-increasing part of the bill that they previously already scored elsewhere as, well, increasing revenue? That creates the impression that the Trump-appointed chair of CBO has a heavy thumb on the scale.
What part of the bill are you referring to as the cbo ignoring?
What part of the bill are you referring to as the cbo ignoring?
Again, the spending amount has already been agreed upon. The real issue is when to announce its passage. That is when the final issues will be ironed out. It's more than Manchin. half of the Senate has individual issues that need tended(see, Sanders and SALT).