JOLTS data is out for November and hiring was way down. The number of new hires declined by 363,000, or 6.2%, from October:
Hiring is now down to its 2017 levels. Job openings were also down, but only slightly, and remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
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-- Every MSM news outlet, tonight and tomorrow.
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I was wondering if this is seasonal--though I'd expect a bunch of new hires in Nov. for the holidays....and the data does say seasonally adjusted. So now I wonder if the seasonal adjustment is out of whack.
Yet the supporting chart starts in 2020…
If job openings are holding up but hiring is down, how do we reconcile that discrepancy? Lots of jobs not being filled even though employers are advertising them? Why aren't they filling the openings? Lack of viable candidates? HR red (of finance dept) tape?
"If job openings are holding up but hiring is down, how do we reconcile that discrepancy? "
1. Employers being more selective/waiting for a more 'perfect' candidate
2. Employers trying to signal, false, strength/growth prospects by having lots of job openings
3. Employers using the this process to figure our market wages, so that they can retain and compensate their current staff more effectively.
... or even something more mundane, like, "yeah we got the opening but no budget 'til next FY, so chill til January, thank you."
Will be interesting to see what January hires look like, both with the new FY and with the big market run-up at the end of '23.
The unemployment rate is so low that the hiring rate pretty much had to drop off just because there aren't that many people left to hire.
Beveridge Curve: https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/job-openings-unemployment-beveridge-curve.htm
When you present a chart of the change in openings, you should show the context of that change.
The curve during the last 23 months is generally improbable. No matter the change in job openings (vacancies), the unemployment level has remained between 3.4% and 3.8%. Technically, the V/U ratio increased between October and November, so your "hiring is sharply down in November" is somewhat misleading.
What you see during the last 23 months is a vertical line, not a curve.
Whenever you claim that we're headed for a recession as opposed to a soft landing, I keep pointing to this "curve".
I at least mostly agree with Kevin that the Fed made rates too high and are currently a drag on the economy. In fact, I'd describe the Fed as panicking and throwing out economic reasoning for "trying not to look bad." Still, things are going well enough that I'm not as pessimistic as Kevin.
I'm not sure why Kevin keeps pretending he doesn't know this, but when the economy is at full employment the job creation numbers are going to be much less than they used to be. I'd also point out (again) that the economy in 2019 was really strange. There was a lot of mixed economic news in 2019, but each month there were more jobs being created. Usually not a lot of jobs, but some.
Courtesy of Calculated Risk Blog, here is Hires, Layoffs, Quits and Job Openings since 2021:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9OyM5wpLq3HNpPg9tGIGm0tiNdwt1GH1OZ8_oeFtH7D-B-XlOE76Q9IECEUNI0AHCb6_XxUFVtM664rIRf1MoNV1NFNapTmalhZQAhGVmJxuZlcMpg1pR61gSAPpLx5mZGxUbsZoxt4yvJ7gRm0IZqpDi3PTDjBebyLGiRVyBmHeqyg4nXA60/s1127/JoltsNov2023.PNG
There were surprisingly few recessions over this time frame, but the thing to note is that until this last report things looked solid. Even now, quits are still quite high and layoffs modest. Is the drop in hiring going to continue or will they stabilize and this will just be a blip? I don't know. I sure wish the Fed had cut a ¼ point last meeting instead of always being behind events, but I think maybe things will still be OK.
And as close as I can tell, the Job Openings don't mean much anymore. I assume that the high numbers for the last 7 years or so is some kind of artificial distortion caused by some strange meshing of posting all jobs on-line and software that wants to add extra jobs. I don't know why a company thinks it's benefiting by posting so many jobs that don't seem to actually exist, but it sure looks like that is what they've been doing.
I'm not sure why Kevin keeps pretending he doesn't know this, but when the economy is at full employment the job creation numbers are going to be much less than they used to be.
While your statement is broadly true, the US economy reached what is generally considered "full employment" a couple of years ago, in the winter of 2022 (below 4%). If hiring numbers are significantly below what they were then, this would constitute evidence that the economy has slowed, is slowing. Maybe it's merely catching its breath (perhaps while rates begin to fall) or maybe Kevin's right and we're beginning to slide into recession. I hope it's the former. Also, headline unemployment is up 50 basis points over the last year.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm