Everyone is forecasting a weak holiday season this year. Here's the latest:
The number of seasonal positions publicly advertised this fall fell to the lowest level in a decade, according to outplacement-services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The National Retail Federation estimates that between 345,000 to 445,000 seasonal workers will be hired this year, down as much as 40% from a recent high in 2021.
Holiday hiring begins in October, and those numbers won't be available for another few weeks. For now, all we have are guesses.
Shouldn't this post be about why the _Wall Street Journal_ always gets its wrong. As near as I can tell, they are saying:
* In transportation, after two very strong years of hiring increases spurred by shifts in buying from online stores during the pandemic, employment will be about the same as last year.
* In retail, retailers increased permanent jobs and reduced temporary jobs.
* Seasonal job growth will increase by 3% to 4% this year, on top of large seasonal increases during the previous two years.
WSJ is paywalled so I was going to ask if the article explains why the National Retail Federation is forcasting a 40% drop-off since 2021 and how the 345k compares to the average over that last 5 or 10 years excluding covid years.
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Fewer Christians this year.
Don't holiday sales fail to meet expectations every year? You know, maybe don't set the expectations so high every year.
That's also because it's a tight labor market, and it will be harder to find a ton of seasonal employees.
Yep, my thought too. Companies are telling everybody they can't find enough people to fill year-round positions. Under what rocks would these surveys expect them to find busloads of seasonal hires?
You know, maybe a lot of this is the consequence of fewer brick and mortar stores as people continue to shift towards online shopping. I barely shop brick and mortar. Home Depot delivers tons of stuff for free irrespective of the price of the item(s). Why spend the money to drive for a quart of paint when they'll deliver it for free?