Sales of existing homes took a big tumble last month:
That's a 4.3% decline from February. However, even though these numbers are seasonally adjusted, it looks like every year sales peak in January or February and then drop off the following month. So this might just be normal seasonal behavior.
My very limited experience suggests that January-February is a slow time to sell a house. Could that recurring spike be due to some sort of tax-related schedule?
Yes, it's a truism (but I suspect still true) that people home shop in the spring and move sometime during the summer. The holiday season is general an arid desert for real estate.
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Big tumble? Where? I see a sharp drop in 2020. And then just a gradual fall over 2022 as the Fed hiked rates and scared off a bunch of people from buying, creating a new normal until the rates come back down again. The "tumble" in 2024 looks exactly the same as the "tumble" in 2023, suggesting it's just seasonal. (Looks like 2019 had the same seasonality in winter.)
Yeah, there's a drop from February to March in 2020 that occurred before the pandemic so this year's drop doesn't look too unique.
If it’s a seasonally adjusted series doesn’t that sort of imply that it fell below the seasonally adjusted expected rate, e.g., more than the delta between the March and annual mean would imply.