Along with its inflation report, the BLS also released this today:
Real wages continue to go down, down, down. Workers are making less than they did before the pandemic—or will by next month, anyway.
This is yet another reason to be skeptical that inflation is baked into the economy unless we throw ourselves into a recession. Other reasons include: (a) a slowdown in the housing market, (b) the end of the Biden stimulus money, (c) personal savings back to normal, and (d) core inflation abating since the beginning of the year. It's also a reason to be skeptical that employers are really that desperate to fill all those jobs they say are open.
But how long will it take for all this to affect the headline CPI rate? Next month will bring some relief on the gasoline front, but food keeps going up. So who knows?
And that's it for me today. I'm about to go in to the eye surgeon and get my unloved RxSight lenses replaced with Synergy multifocal lenses, which is what I wanted in the first place. Wish me luck.
Lol, based on a flawed set of baskets?
Well, you're able to see that there's no wage-price spiral ok.
Sorry to hear that the new eyes weren't working out.
Based on the amazon prime day media blitz, I'm not what inflation even means.
Please go buy more junk you don't need and we can't deliver because it's stuck in a container! No matter the price!
Up to 75% of the mortgage market will be controlled by nonbank lenders by the end of the year. Federal Reserve system is heading to partial abolishment. Bank of America says goodbye. Quicken Loans say hello.
Also means Fed/Government bonds mean less for the economy going forward. Fed rates don't mean so much. Stronger dollar is sucking money into these entities. I suspect they will fill in some of the primary dealer gap by the end of the year. Meijer, the good Republican grocer used a nonbank for a major remodeling drive.......
Good Luck!
Paul Krugman's recent column notes that the various economic indicators are, to use a technical term, screwy. Things that ought to move in parallel don't; things that should move in opposite directions also don't. You can make any "prediction" you want, simply by picking the right graph.
I saw that too. Pardon yet another perennial hobby horse of mine, but this is yet more evidence that ther's some underlying, more fundamental metric that we're completely missing, let alone measuring.
Good luck with the eyes! At -14 and -12, I hope you find success and can point me in the right direction!
I had no idea they could just swap those things out like that. Good luck.
Keep an eye on the effects of (temporary?) deglobalization, partially the result of global (temporary?) inflation.
Indonesia has banned palm oil exports. India has slashed sugar exports. Wheat exports from Ukraine are blocked. China has partially blocked exports of phosphate.
If this protectionist reaction to global inflation (and supply constraints) spreads, we're all going to suffer very much in the way of the 1930s tariff wars. By the way, why haven't we paused the Trump tariffs across the board, yet?
The G20 is moot if the current chair -- Indonesia -- has cut off exports of a critical supply to the world.
By the way, why haven't we paused the Trump tariffs across the board, yet?
Because the Biden administration is too cautious to a fault. That's why. Too late to do it now: too close to midterms. They should have reversed those tariffs last year, when it was clear we had an inflation problem. I blame it on his political advisers. The one decisive action that we know was all Joe's—the pullout of Afghanistan—worked out fine (I know he used some political capital, but we can't visit the parallel universe where the US is still suffering casualties in that quagmire, and where Joe is being accused by his political enemies of breaking a campaign promise).
I'm sure what they're telling Biden is that easing China tariffs will hurt Democrats in the rust belt, and will have only a modest ameliorative effect on inflation.
The decision to pull up stakes in Afghanistan without any real agreement with the Taliban was Trump's. Biden just played the hand he was dealt as best he could. I think the reaction to the casualties and panicked evacuations, though, made him and his advisers gun shy with just about everything going forward, including stuff like rolling back the China tariffs. He could do it, but he doesn't think he has the political capital right now to weather the inevitable shrieking from Republicans and the media about how he's "knuckled under" to the CCP.
Hey, all the best with your eye procedures. I know two people who've gotten multi-focal implants and they're both extremely satisfied with them. Or to be strictly accurate, one is ecstatic.
I'm holding out for the laser-eye option.
You mean like lasik? Because of cataracts I've had both lenses replaced with implants but even if it was only about focus I just couldn't go for that. Superstitious, I guess, but no thanks. In fact they offered lasik as fine-tuning if I wanted it, but that was an easy turn-down. But that's me. If you go for it, I hope it does what you need. Unless you mean like lasers beaming out from your pupils? The Borg will bring that . . .
Good luck with the eye surgery!
I think we're experiencing Antagonistic Fads.
This would be where some fad or trend extends for a much longer period than would be reasonably expected when the fad began, because some who may be vaguely intrigued are reacting antagonistically to 'elite opinion' and saying fuck them they're always wrong everyone I know says so and we all voted for Trump! I can get away with anything! And also because the fads are now worldwide and promoted from dozens of grassroots antagonists all with their own dumb rationale.
It's working on increasingly larger scales, as when the Saudis are withholding petroleum to try and so fuck up the West we re-elect Donald Trump. That's not just political maneuvering, it's purposeful disinterest in the harm that can be caused. The Saudis can't overtly chip in with Putin, but they're on the same page, which is awkward because so is mortal enemy Iran, which, in light of the Saudi petro-maneuvre, is making sure Putin still likes them best by supplying him with new drones.
Putin is an antagonistic fad for those thrilled by the harm and suffering they can bring about on a massive scale.
Trump is a brain dead jew who will be in the nursing home soon enough. There is nothing to reelect. Are you a retard or stupid????
Hey, shitsack, found your house,
https://i.redd.it/576uoyryw6591.jpg
+1 million
You've got to see this,
https://old.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/vy3xry/this_is_horrifying_truth_about_whats_going_down/
Don't know how widespread this berserk oath is, but here Evangelicals are disavowing their allegiance to the US and swearing loyalty to religious psychosis and vowing to overthrow and destroy the country.
Fine by me. Kill them, rape their women and completely destroy their genetic lines. Got that idiot. This just gives more openings to murder them to nonexistence.
I think this represents a small, but vocal (and batshit crazy), movement among some far-right evangelicals called "Dominionism". The basic idea is that "man-made" laws -- and hence, states, like the US -- are illegitimate and that the only "true" government is a theocracy based on Biblical law. Basically American Taliban.
Dominianism was, maybe still is, the dominent philosophy at the US Air Force Academy. Just sayin' ...
Oh, and when Daniel Elsberg and a friend from Rand went to see "Dr Strangelove", they came out thinking it would be pretty accurate as a documentary.
Religious psychotics are an obvious national security threat and older Democrats and other DC personalities are as if genetically blind to it.