Tyler Cowen points me to this today:
23.4 million government employees! That's some context. But here's some better context:
Kalshi's number includes state and local workers, most of them teachers. The number of federal workers, which is all Musk cares about, comes to 3 million. Just a slight difference.
In any case, the 60,000 bet is a big change from yesterday, when eager Musk groupies were offering to take bets on 100,000 workers getting fired—and an even bigger change from last week, when it was at 160,000. Apparently the saner bits of the betting market have re-tethered them to reality.
But the whole thing is even weirder than it sounds. The bet in this case is how many federal workers will be gone by January 2026 even though Musk isn't scheduled to make recommendations until July 2026. And just for reference, direct federal employment grew by 70,000 during Trump's first term.
All federal workers wearing eyeglasses will be reassigned to border patrol duties.
I'm assuming the little spikes are temporary Census hires. But what are the gray vertical bars?
Recessions.
Yeah when I first saw this chart my first thought was why is there a blip around recessions. Eventually I figured out it was the census and now there is a part of me that is convinced that the census causes recessions.
Doesn't that m-fer Elon Musk have a day job?
He has several. If only he'd do them.
Do these include contract workers?
Do they want to actually trim the federal government, or just have private companies do the work for the federal government? Kill off federal unions and funnel money to oligarchs, I mean upstanding business people, who could then bribe, I mean give gratuities, to the White House for giving them the contract. Nope, no overreach there at all.
You do realize federal unions are completely powerless.
Which doesn't mean that Republicans don't want to kill them.
As stupid as all this is, I think a better political stance is not to knee-jerk resist it.
I firmly endorse making things as simple as possible, but no simpler. So if you can make the government do what it is charged with doing by the Constitution and by Statute with fewer people, go for it.
Of course, you need to be accountable if your changes mean the government isn't doing what it is supposed to be doing.
You know, "I just want to see the laws obeyed and enforced". Where have I heard that before?
If that is what's truly going on, sure. But many of us suspect it's really a play to privatize this work for profit - as well as get a bunch of people to retire and move on.
As fun as it is to make fun of him for claims like these, Trump will do his best to fire the civil service, often illegally, replace it with his cronies, and call that a cost server. Last time, remember, he got a healthy start on firing those responsible for communicating the stance of the United States, including Voice of America, and his cabinet appointments have leaned to sexual predators much like himself and certainly unable to scrutinize his conduct.
For even greater detail, please see the day's photo.
If you mean the photo at the top of this blog, they change every time you check in.
Now normalize by population. The US population in 1940 was about 132 million people, roughly forty percent of what it is today.
The history of reducing federal civil servants is, you don't fire them, too hard. You offer buyouts. My old agency has declined drastically over the years. Maybe >35K when Jimmy Carter was a summe employee, to <9K now. Some rounds of buyouts in the early 90s, including one in 1997 which I took advantage of.
Speaking as former manager, it's not that hard to fire an employee, it takes time, meaning the manager's performance in managing is degraded. So you can have a smaller work force which doesn't accomplish anything other than the routine during your 4-year term, or you can put the "turkeys" where they don't get in the way and get something done with your effective employees.
BTW, in my agency the "turkeys" were often those hired because of politics or personal connections.
From 2025 to 20229 the federal govt should be working on challenges like use of AI, biologic implications of CRISPR and semaglutide, drones and robots, etc.
Wow, until 20229? Haha.
I may have told this one before. A political appointee from the DC mothership of my agency was visiting and I was supposed to show him around. Afterwards I emailed a friend who worked in a high up position the DC office asking what he actually did there. She emailed back "we can't figure it out either."
2022==ither a senior moment or an indicator of why the agency wanted me gone.
🙂
That may be true, but (to repeat myself) the beaucracy is not stuffed to the gills with political appontments. If is the branch of government charged with duly created policy, on behalf of food safety, environmental protection, and collecting taxes from those who game the system, like Trump. It is there to keep his political appointees somewhat in check. And those checks may soon be gone.
While my agency was more affected by politics than others in the department, in almost all cases even those who had clear political affiliations were professional.
They may fire 70-100K Federal workers, and then hire 200K more. Load up the Federal payroll with completely incompetent MAGA political hacks, Trump suck-ups, and total dirt bags. The Charlottesville "Unite the Right" goose steppers would be perfect to fill the ranks of Stephen Miller's deportation squads.
Al Gore cut 250,000 federal jobs when Clinton did the same thing. And Clinton didn't need outside help, he did it v by putting his vice president in charge of the effort.
You're off by like, 10x, I think?
Trump’s Nominates Navy Secretary Pick With No Military Experience
The barrage of Tuesday night nominations continues with Trump’s pick for U.S. secretary of the Navy: John Phelan, a wealthy businessman and Trump campaign fundraiser with no known military background.
Phelan’s “incredible knowledge and experience will elevate the lives of the brave Americans who serve our Nation,” Trump wrote in his announcement.
“He will put the business of the U.S. Navy above all else,” Trump also said.
Current Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro served in the Navy for 22 years.
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Keel haul this scallywag !!!!!!
(I took care of one for you Elon)
I took a slightly different look at it and this is what I found:
Active Duty Military: 1,290,000
Postal Service Employees 535,469
Other Direct Federal Employees 2,950,000
Federal Contractors 2,100,000
Total: 6,875,469
The real growth has been in contracted federal services and I suspect the 2.1M number above is understated.
So initial bottom line: if they want lots of people laid off: target federal contractors starting with Musk.
The real bottom line is while looking for ways to do things better is good, suggesting laying off lots of federal workers will be good is another bad faith rich guy argument
How many border agents they gonna hire, if they even can?
Then the man who owes his wealth to govt' subsidies is gonna fire how many?
I bet anything we wind up with way more govt. workers and it's not just border patrol agents.
Never seen more second rate negotiation tactics than since the election. Just need someone to grow a pair and call it what it is but not sure there's much left in that area on either side to do it.
Trump is living outside reality and a large number of us have gone with him. He knows he can say anything he wants, and did just that during his 2024 campaign. Now that he's about to be president, those promises to drain the swamp and fire the "deep state" are not important to him. He wants to humiliate (or ruin) his "enemies" and loot the treasury. That's all. Some people will quit or be fired, and if anyone wants to know, Trump (and the Magats) will say it was "millions."