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How to make friends and influence abortion wafflers

The New York Times wrote today about a moderate Republican woman who loathed the Dobbs decision removing the constitutional right to abortion:

As Gov. Gretchen Whitmer prepared to kick off a round-table discussion about abortion rights at a brewery recently, Alisha Meneely sat at one corner of the table, feeling politically abandoned.

“This scares me a lot,” said Ms. Meneely, 43, who described herself as a “pro-choice Republican” in an interview shortly before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. A few days later, as many Republican officials embraced the far-reaching implications of the decision, she was unequivocal. “This,” Ms. Meneely said, “is not my party.”

Let's think out loud about this. Toss out a few guesses. Run some ideas up the ol' flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

The target for Democrats is obviously center-righties like Meneely. The true believers won't give us the time of day and will never vote for us. So what do we know about these people?

First of all, feelings about abortion are just those: feelings. Science is of no help here. Science can tell us that a human blastocyst is created by a human egg and human sperm. It can tell us when a heart starts beating. It can tell us when brain activity is detected. It can tell us when a fetus is viable outside the womb—although this changes as technology improves. But it can't tell us whether a fetus deserves the same full protection of the law given to a human who's been born. That's an issue for religion, the law, and public opinion.

So why do some people feel that abortion is wrong? We liberals are fond of saying that it's because conservatives are misogynists who want to control women's bodies and punish them for having unapproved sex. And that's probably of true of some of them. But among moderate conservatives, there are really only two things we know for sure:

  • A large majority of moderates on both sides have feelings that are basically shaped by shape. That is, they don't think a little ball of cells looks human but they do think that a sonagram taken at 18 weeks does. That's why they mostly approve of Roe v. Wade. They don't care if it makes legal sense, they only care that it jibes with their intuition.
  • When Dobbs was finally handed down—that is, when endless talk turned into a real, concrete attack on abortion—support for abortion rights went up. We political junkies all expected Roe to fall after Trump appointed three right-wing justices to the Supreme Court, but ordinary people didn't. They were shocked and surprised when it happened.

These seem like the natural points of attack for liberals who want to persuade conservatives to support broader abortion rights. But how? It's easy to imagine how we can take advantage of scary conservative ideologues. They're scary. But how do we take advantage of the shape thing? After all, it makes a lot of sense for a pattern-matching species like us. If it looks human, it probably is human.

I don't know. The obvious solution is to support abortion until, say, 18 weeks but not after. But that's not what progressives believe.

We could try to convince people that "looks like" isn't "is." But that's a pretty tough row to hoe. I'm not sure how we could go about it.

We could begin a campaign to emphasize how a 20-week fetus isn't like a newborn baby.

We could splash social media with pictures of the 2001 fetus, emphasizing how creepy and alien it is.

Anybody else have some ideas? I know that lots of people have been trying to figure this out for decades, but with Roe gone it gains a certain salience that it didn't have before. What's our best way of handling it?

133 thoughts on “How to make friends and influence abortion wafflers

  1. Yikes

    Kevin's post illustrates something that the Trump era has really, really put into focus for me.

    All of these fascinating policy debates don't even have to occur if enough people who already favor the liberal Dem position bother to get off their ass and vote.

    Even in the most gerrymandered red state.

    Yet, here we are again. This outcome was obvious to me the second McConnell delayed the Garland nomination out of pure power lust.

    But you know, we are a country which was built on an amalgamation of values, not on shared values. We are not Germany, France, Greece, Egypt, one could go on and on.

    And for that matter, the amalgamation of values includes a long, long list of examples of liberals putting up with conservative nonsense, essentially for the sake of the country. Or the sake of being one country.

    We just put up with millions of morons resisting basic health science, likely resulting in hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths.

    But that's not new. Before the civil war started millions of Northerners went to their church every Sunday, while just some hundreds of miles away people were enslaved!!!! Yeah eventually they got around to the civil war.

    But after the civil war, many more millions looked the other way during the entire Jim Crow era. I mean, why even have the civil war? The south was defeated, but not convinced. They f-ing still they they were right!

    What is going to happen now is that yes, there will be a backlash for sorts against the R's but not nearly as much as logic or reason will demand. That's because for too many liberals, millions of them, what every nonsense they are, or have been up to in Alabama might as well be on Mars for all they care.

    The answer is not convincing people, the answer is getting the votes.

  2. skeptonomist

    What we know is that a majority did not want Roe reversed, so the main Democratic strategy should be simply to promise to re-instate it in law. Roe itself is a compromise, allowing all abortions in the first trimester, some restrictions in the second and banning except for life of mother in the third (rape and incest not mentioned - they should be in the bill). As Kevin says, many people are kind of wishy-washy about abortion, and there is no advantage to getting into questions which can't really be answered.

    And and others say, emphasis should be on the very real consequences to living womb-people, not the philosophico-religious question of when life begins. The people who are likely to switch votes from Republican to Democratic are not the type to take absolute positions - the absolutists have already made up their minds.

    1. ScentOfViolets

      Very few people will switch from R to D at this point, IMHO. The best we can reasonably hope for is that they simply won't vote. Note that Ms. Meneely only said "this isn't my party"; she did _not_ say she was switching teams. Because, taxes, or some other such tomfoolery.

      1. KenSchulz

        Agree. The trend has been for fewer people to identify themselves with either major party, to pollsters.

    2. spatrick

      "What we know is that a majority did not want Roe reversed, so the main Democratic strategy should be simply to promise to re-instate it in law. Roe itself is a compromise, allowing all abortions in the first trimester, some restrictions in the second and banning except for life of mother in the third (rape and incest not mentioned - they should be in the bill). As Kevin says, many people are kind of wishy-washy about abortion, and there is no advantage to getting into questions which can't really be answered."

      Exactly. Any message on abortion this fall has to be simple and it has to be Libertarian. "We're the party that supports giving citizens the right to make their own decisions with their bodies. We're for Roe." There, simple to the point. Don't clutter it up anything else or say that we're for Roe except for 15 weeks before the due date," I mean, no. Nothing else but that simple message. That's what people will vote for.

      1. ScentOfViolets

        Row for Roe! I have a distaste for sloganeering but will admit that some people seem to prefer that sort of persuasion to the more rational kind. In any event, your dead-on about keeping it short; it's not a hard or complex issue, contrary to what some people would have you believe.

      2. MrPug

        The Libertarian position on abortion is, like most libertarian positions, complete nonsense. See: https://www.lp.org/libertarians-on-abortion/

        I agree keep it simple, but that is not the Libertarian position. Keeping it simple is just unapologetically defending abortion and reproductive rights for women as a right to healthcare. Full stop. Don't go down the road, as Drum is suggesting, of compromising on something like viability. Discussing the exact right number of weeks in which abortions are allowed is anything but simple. The question of viability I'll leave to medical professionals.

        Getting into the weeds of viability is kind of like getting into the weeds of banning "assault" rifles, because that inevitably leads to having to define exactly what an assault rifle is which just muddies the water and helps the bad guys enact bad policies or block good ones. My preferred ban, to keep that topic simple, would be to ban all semiautomatic guns, be they long guns or handguns. Obviously not going to happen, but that is the "simple" argument.

        1. ScentOfViolets

          A true libertarian would growl that whether or not a woman has an abortion is none of my damn business.

          But then again, they ain't exatly who they claim to be now, are they 😉

          1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

            Libertarians are White Supremacists. Full stop. They are just too buttoned up to get down with the lowclass trashpeople that voted for Wallace-Le May. So, they twist their preferred policy outcomes into the country club friendly phrasing.

    3. tomtom502

      Yes. People like Roe. People are used to Roe.

      Kevin said "I don't know. The obvious solution is to support abortion until, say, 18 weeks but not after. But that's not what progressives believe."

      If the choice is pleasing progressives or effective politics how about choosing the latter?

      "We could begin a campaign to emphasize how a 20-week fetus isn't like a newborn baby."

      Now that's better. Go younger. A picture of a blastocyst smaller than the the ball of a ball point next to a picture of a raped twelve year old. Which do we protect?

  3. royko

    Democrats have leaned on rape and incest a lot, and I can understand why, and it's fine, but this isn't what I would rely on.

    I would focus on how personal a decision it is. That's my sense where people get uncomfortable with abortion bans. It's too intrusive. You can find all kinds of scenarios, from ectopic pregnancies to women being forced to carry to term at considerable risk babies with defects, babies who won't survive, babies who won't even be alive. You start hearing these stories, most people think, "Geez, I don't want the government to get involved."

    Add to that the chances that women who suffer miscarriages may become suspects thanks to some of these draconian laws, people will say this goes way too far.

    1. tomtom502

      Well, rape and incest are good points! But I get what you are saying. A lot of people are pretty libertarian and don't love Democrats. Between a woman and her doctor, government out of here! is a pretty effective approach.

      Progressives don't love it because plays into anti-government hostility, but you know what? We have some elections to win.

  4. George Salt

    Many of the so-called moderate Republicans are in it for the tax cuts. The same goes for the small business/Chamber of Commerce crowd. They are in income brackets where they don't have to worry much about abortion restrictions, because they can afford to fly to Toronto to get an abortion if that's what it takes. The effort to prosecute women who seek abortions out of state may get their attention but they probably won't care until it becomes a reality and their friends and family are affected.

    The number of persuadable Republicans may be only 5%. Still, if we could flip 5% of Republicans in purple states where presidential elections have been close, it could be enough to change outcomes.

    1. ScentOfViolets

      Five percent? Heh. I'm guessing more like point five percent. Because -- as you said -- taxes. These sorts of people are every bit as incapable of being Democrats as their loonier brethren.

    2. jte21

      The effort to prosecute women who seek abortions out of state may get their attention but they probably won't care until it becomes a reality and their friends and family are affected.

      Precisely. If you have a late term miscarriage or emergency complication that may require an "abortion" to save your life, you can't just hop on a plane to Canada, regardless of your wealth and privilege.

    3. tomtom502

      More than enough. Flip 5% of Republicans and we hold the Senate and have a good chance in the House.

    1. tomtom502

      Not sure about this. Shape worked for Republicans when the argument was about late-term abortions. Now the argument is about early term.

      This has already flipped. Shape will now work for Democrats.

  5. tdbach

    This isn't complicated, and we shouldn't let it be complicated. Until the baby is born, the mother rules. Because it is her body, and that is sacrosanct. Because the unborn life has no rights or status in law. You might feel something akin to empathy and caring for that impending life, but you CANNOT overrule the rights of the citizen mother. It's astonishing to me that the court has made 2nd amendment rights so absolute and inviolable, but the rights of an American women are up for grabs, state by state.

    1. tomtom502

      Actually I think you are making it complicated, generalizing a line of thought that is obvious to you to others who see it differently.

      Skeptonomist above makes the simple point: People like Roe. They are comfortable with Roe. Run on that.

      We don't need to persuade people to see it our way, they already do.

    2. ProgressOne

      "Until the baby is born, the mother rules."

      So a woman 8 months pregnant, where labor could be induced and the baby born, should be allowed to have an abortion? Sorry, but that's called murder. I'd say your position is extremist.

      1. Bonnie McDaniel

        This is nonsensical fearmongering. Women do not have abortions at eight months for shits and giggles. As Pete Buttigieg said, if someone has carried the pregnancy that long, BY DEFINITION they're expecting to carry it to term. Then they get the most devastating medical diagnosis of their lives. Canada has no restrictions on abortion at all, and it works out fine--I read a Canadian citizen a while back (can't remember where) saying the vast majority of their procedures are done before 16 weeks.

        Dr. George Tiller's slogan is even simpler: "Trust women."

        1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

          I think, with the higher incidence of psychopathy among GQPers, they assume that we are all as petty & cruel as them, & would, in fact, abort a 34 weeks pregnancy for shits n' giggles. In fact, for a woman serial killer, would be a nice endaround the law.

          Of course, if such a woman existed, she would undoubtedly be more Laura Loomer than Laura Jane Grace.

          1. tomtom502

            This is why we do not want the political argument to be about late term abortions!

            ProgressOne, Bonnie McDaniel, and MontyTheClipArtMongoose's areguments make the arguments you will hear.

            Remember 90% of abortions are 1st trimester. Protect the 90% . Don't let the argument be about 3rd trimester, don;t defend late term abortions even though they are vanishingly rare and perhaps don't exist. Cede 3rd trimester, political energy should go into 1st trimester.

  6. shapeofsociety

    There is no need to mince about where exactly the line should be drawn. Instead, scaremonger about the terrifying effects of absolute abortion bans: women dying of ectopic pregnancies and bleeding to death from uterine hemorrhages that their doctors were too scared to properly treat. No more IUDs or morning after pills because someone says they're abortifacients. No more IVF. Shockingly young incest victims forced to carry to term. We already know that the Christofascists don't care about any of this, but normal people definitely do.

  7. wasd

    > So why do some people feel that abortion is wrong?

    Actually the science of the psychology of morality has really solid answers here:

    It's primarily an intuition about purity/sanctity (aka a "yuck factor") that gets triggered by thinking about shameful instruments poking into bodies trough genitals. Stir in some innumeracy about the scale of unplanned pregnancy, rape, and pregnancies gone wrong mixed with groupthink from anti-choice groups plus all our natural limits of empathy towards people in the pro-choice out-group hidden by medical privacy

    Mix that and pretty soon someone who when you really talk to them clearly knows better still sounds completely sincere with self righteous slogans that seem like it's their factual believe of the world that a majority of woman like to crochet, to eat bonbons and to murder babies because these are just fun things to do on a casual Sunday afternoon.

    I can see two ways, one is a rational appeal: Point out all of the genital poking, spinal drug use, public defecation and spontaneous vaginal secretion of a body part after its nutritients have been sapped by a slimy alien looking parasitic lifeform .. I hear some doctors involved in this absolutely disgusting medical procedure euphemistically refer to it as "child birth". I hear there is even dark corners of the Internet where people referred to as "daddies" share videos of the whole freakish ceremony, it's disgusting!

    The bottom line is when someone is pregnant the result is gonna be yucky either way so it's best to take a deep breath, to act like a responsible mature adult the best you can and make a completely utilitarian decision in the interest of the child and mother after birth. If you aren't more certain of the 18 year commitment than you are of the commitment to a 2 year cell phone plan then it might not be the right time for parenthood and abortion is just the least harm and the better choice for all...

    And actually the vast majority of modern early abortions just looks like taking a pill, you can even do it on live TV, it will be familiar to those who have taken the pill or plan B... So yeah, it's just plan C.

    Having rationally swallowed the bitter utilitarian pill you can ju-jitsu all the typical "knowing better how to run other peoples life's" feelings of the right: Making this choice isn't just a right like the right to buy drugs, fireworks and condoms, it's a massive responsibility. Anyone whose parents raised them right knows how big a responsibility raising children is. It's not just about being a responsible mother it's all about choosing a responsible father figure for your son's. Do you trust an alternatingly catholic and lgbt government with that responsibility or does mother know best?

    The other option is to just tell even more gross and paranoid horror stories. I might not personally like an appeal to disgust but the elements are all there. The underfunded dilapidated orphanages, the women in distress thinking they are made it safely to a doctor only to find the doctors are all part of a sinister plot with the hidden hand of shadowy lawyers and the catholic church.. It is all there. This wouldn't be my personal approach but it worked in Ireland and with it seems to be working with the 10 and 12 year olds whose horror stories are currently going around twitter. All it takes is to drop to veil of medical privacy and give a face and voice to the victims

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Savita_Halappanavar

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