Bob Somerby quoted Sen. Katie Britt today saying that human trafficking across the Mexican border has grown from $500 million in 2018 to $13 billion today—meaning 2021. Is this really true?
Nope. It's a widely cited statistic, but as near as I can tell every single repetition can be sourced back to a New York Times piece from 2022 that says:
The sheer number of people seeking to cross made migrant smuggling an irresistible moneymaker for some cartels, [Patrick Lechleitner] said.
The enterprises have teams specializing in logistics, transportation, surveillance, stash houses and accounting — all supporting an industry whose revenues have soared to an estimated $13 billion today from $500 million in 2018, according to Homeland Security Investigations, the federal agency that investigates such cases.
This has nothing to do with human trafficking, which is (mostly) a matter of kidnapping young girls and forcing them into prostitution. The $500 million figure comes from a passing remark in testimony by Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, and it's an estimate of the amount that coyotes make from smuggling people into the US.
As for the $13 billion figure, who knows? There's no source given except HSI, and I was unable to find an HSI estimate anywhere for anything. But it's probably also a smuggling number, since that's the subject of the Times story.
However, even as a smuggling number it should be treated with extreme skepticism. What are the odds that human smuggling increased 2600% in three years? Come on.
So how much has trafficking across the southwest border increased? The best evidence I can come up with is the number of people tried in court:
Prosecutions are up since 2018, but referrals and convictions haven't changed at all. They're both up about 5% since 2018.
Unless HSI has become wildly less competent at busting human trafficking operations, a 5% increase in referrals probably means about a 5% increase in trafficking.
Not 2600%. Not even close.
here's a 2013 pdf from Homeland Security Investigations that says $1.5 billion in estimated human smuggling profits; see slide 12 for their calculation (it's based on border apprehensions)
http://www.saltmarshcpa.com/assets/resources/seminars/Homeland%20Security%20Investigations%20-%20R.%20Dunn.pdf
That's smuggling, not trafficking. I guess smuggling must have gone down between 2013 and 2018!
Alternatively, these estimates are just junk.
i was responding to this:
I was unable to find an HSI estimate anywhere for anything. Is it a figure for human trafficking? Migrant smuggling? What is it based on?
and it seems hsi produces numbers for smuggling since it's sort of a cash and carry thing they can estimate based on interviewing detainees and asking what they paid to get across the border
otoh, the detained women being trafficked for prostitution etc., have no idea what their handlers have paid to get them into the US (and that may actually be a 'vertical' integrated with the core business) so probably harder to come up with a dollar value on that
but once republicans have a nice scare number for smuggling that sounds sorta in the ball park to the fox news crowd they'll happily conflate it with trafficking
accuracy isn't 'on brand' for them
GIGO
saw this as well:
Human trafficking is distinct from the separate crime of human smuggling, which is not covered
in this Action Plan. It is a misconception that human trafficking requires crossing a border.13 In
fact, it does not require movement at all. By contrast, human smugglers engage in the crime of
bringing people across international borders through deliberate evasion of immigration laws, often
for financial benefit.14 While human trafficking and human smuggling are distinct crimes,
individuals who are smuggled are vulnerable to becoming victims of human trafficking and other
serious crime.15 Understanding these distinct concepts will support improved human trafficking
prevention and victim identification efforts.
from:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/National-Action-Plan-to-Combat-Human-Trafficking.pdf
Speaking of human trafficking: What happened to Eustace? Did he retire from posting replies, or have I just missed all the fun?
Billionaires spend a lot of money on human trafficking.
I think they adjusted for inflation
Did you adjust the prosecutions chart for MAGA inflation?
See? There you libruls go AGAIN, with your "facts" and your "numbers" and your "research"! Don't you understand that, even if these things aren't "true" in the "real world," they're True in a larger, more important sense? Mister Trump says they're true. Fox says they're true. My Facebook friends say they're true. Now really, what's more "real," huh?
People like Katie Britt say they're concerned about human trafficking, but I don't see them outraged at the tens of thousands of children Russia has trafficked out of Ukraine -- a veritable war crime.
Fuck this fake outrage. This shit comes up only because people think it has a political benefit. Fuck that.
Rep. Katie Britt is just another example.that..
…without bad faith….
Republicans would have no arguments at all…
> 2600%
Wait, were the monetary figures adjusted for inflation?