You guys are an optimistic bunch!
Only 10% of you think that inflation will continue to rise. As it happens I agree with you: I'm guessing a decline to maybe 8.1% or so.
We'll find out tomorrow if this is wishful thinking or not. As usual, though, I won't get around to posting about it until I wake up, which is usually two or three hours after the new print is released at 5:30 am Pacific time. But I always try to make up for being later than everyone else by providing especially incisive analysis and nice, colorful charts.
It's all about the colorful charts. And the cats, always, the cats.
Did you survey the cats? How did they vote?
They licked it…
So, as always, it depends on what you mean by "inflation." Consumer Price Index in April went down to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but the core price measure increased over March by 0.6%. According to the NY Times that's the measure that the Fed watches when deciding what to do with interest rates. Frankly, though, it depends on where you live, because I know that gasoline went up locally by about $1 a gallon here in early May since I bought it in both April and May. I expect May's numbers will be worse.
It now being “tomorrow” those of us who went with “ about the same” should feel they have a bead, or at least good guessing ability: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-inflation-dipped-month-40-year-high-84635795
As they reported on NPR this morning, next month's year to year inflation comparison should be better since prices really began to jump a year ago.
I'd been thinking we've topped out for many months - and been wrong every time. So I predicted higher. But looks like I was wrong again and it is a tiny bit lower.
The Feds have been targeting inflation at 2% for a very long time and it never got to that level. So the current rate may be simply a correction. I think a 4%-5% inflation is salutary for a relative short time since it cheapens debt and decreases the power of the bond holders (the very wealthy). There are other benefits for higher inflation (an overall economic rebalance) but suffice to say that the reasons for the current wave do not seem to have any permanency: COVID, war, labor shortage (we need more immigration), supply chain disruption, and more.
I remember Ford's Whip Inflation Now era. Don't remember it being a big deal except for buying WIN bonds. House payment stayed the same. Got salary increases. Ho Hum.
I am overwhelmed with anticipation.
… bearing in mind that YoY ‘inflation’ is one somewhat noisy measure divided by another; and that it is the sum of actual inflation (decline in the value of a currency) plus price changes due to other factors. Those ‘other factors’ might systematically move prices of many goods, e.g. tariffs or price changes for broadly-required factors such as labor or energy. Non-systematic factors would tend to have random effects, with an expected average of zero.