We got nice inflation news today. The headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 1.5% while the core inflation rate finally showed some modest downward movement to 3.9%.
This is the annualized monthly rate. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation fell to 3.8% while core inflation was stuck at 4.6%.
In related news, consumer spending was flat in May but basically stayed on its pre-pandemic trend:
Disposable personal income in May rose at an annualized rate of 3.8%:
Sadly, data does not have the impact on public opinion that one might expect.
In our consumer culture, there is always something else that must be purchased in order to attain the good life. Thus no one ever has as much money as they desire & they are locked into a perpetual cycle of dissatisfaction. Other times are always remembered as better than today.
Showing people data in charts only pisses them off.
People were so much happier back in the Dark Ages when they didn't have any empirical data showing them how bad off they were.
Can the people who get pissed off at viewing charts also elect to have their doctors treat them without the use of any data or charts? Cause that would at least be logically consistent with their alleged anti-chart principles in every other facet of their lives.
Yeah, but part of it is that people are less interested in the rate of disinflation and more interested in deflation. They're waiting for Godot to drop the cost of their Oreos.
bingo! Oreos shouldn't cost more than a gallon of gas! And gas should never be above $2/gallon!!!
No, the PCE report isn't news - it uses the same data that was in the CPI report that came out two weeks ago. The inflation curves from the CPI and PCE are pretty strictly parallel:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=16EMt
If you want to project future inflation, at this point the best way may be just to draw a bell-shaped* curve based on year/year inflation in a diagram like this.
Why does the PCE report come out later? Is the PCE crew just slower than the CPI crew, or is there just one crew which does them in turn? Or does the BLS just draw things out to get maximum attention?
*Which bell? Maybe the Liberty Bell - that would give you a prediction as valid as any.
KD furiously reviewing and typing away regarding 303 Creative (gay civil rights) and Biden v Nebraska (student loan forgiveness).
Expect a mouthful, 'cause those two are a doozy.
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