Treasury yields were up today:
This suggests that today's inflation news has caused inflationary expectations to go up a bit, but not a lot. That's the good news.
The bad news is that I imagine that mainstream news is going to be all inflation all the time. I'm OK with that, I guess, as long as they get their numbers right and put it all into long-term context. Unfortunately, the odds of that are not good.
Honestly, this is probably good. 1.2% yield on a 5 year T-bill is really, really low, historically speaking.
What is the current weighted average interest rate for US debt (I assume that is generally 10 year notes?)? By how much has that changed over the last 10 years or so?
Here is the debt series:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm
And here is the debt service:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm
Simple division should give the weighted-average rate, no? I’d do the math, but it’s late. And I’d prefer to download the Excel files on my PC, but at the moment I’m on an iPad.
Simple division should give the weighted-average rate, no?
To the first approximation, everything is linear, heh heh. But seriously, what are the spreadsheet options on the iStuff? I would have thought that you would have at the least access to Google Sheets, but maybe not.
If I were blogging about inflationary expectations, I would be tracking the real yield curves -- https://is.gd/e0x8iL. -- rather than the standard Treasury bond yield curves. You might, after all, be capturing a picture of a booming economy that would naturally carry some inflation by nature.
The far better way to measure inflationary expectations is to compare the rate on the TIPS vs a regular Treasury.
10 year TIPS -1.152
10 year Treasury 1.560
10 year expected inflation 2.712%
and on cue....
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/11/politics/president-joe-biden-inflation-politics/index.html