The sixth edition of the IPCC climate report is out, and this time there's no shilly-shallying around with "medium confidence" and "most likely" and so forth. Temps are going up; humans are the cause; and the results will be catastrophic if we don't do anything about it. Here's the latest hockey-stick chart:
The whole report is a million pages long and I haven't even begun to dive into it. However, the parts I've looked at so far are clear enough: we need to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions right now or else face a future of more wildfires, more heat episodes, more rain, more floods, and more drought. In fact, more of everything except cold spells:
More later. In the meantime, you can read the whole thing here.
It is a good thing you got your spur of the moment trip to Italy in while you still could…
I suppose you live in a hut without electricity? One person's actions are never going to be enough to solve climate change. It will take collective action or nothing.
Of course I don’t. But to decry climate change and do what seems to have been absolutely nothing about it as an individual strikes me as the height of hypocrisy.
Has Kevin put solar panels on his roof?
Has Kevin shifted his automobile to at least a hybrid if not a full EV?
When he redid his kitchen did he ditch the gas stove?
Has Kevin stopped jetting around the globe on a whim?
Are any of those things, alone or together, sufficient? Absolutely not. But even in the event of collective action they are/will be necessary.
And no, I’ve not yet done all those myself. My automobiles are a hybrid and an electric. My stove is electric and will remain so through an upcoming remodel which will include heating and hot water going electric and panels going on the roof.
How about you? Here’s an opportunity for you to show how much more you’ve done rather than call for and wait on the technological silver bullets Kevin has been requesting.
As voting against the GOP is actually doling something about, your argument is, as usual, baseless. Pointing to one person when entire sectors are destroying the environment is simply misdirecting attention, when we would gladly do things in a way- were we allowed- that those activities ,harmed the planet less.
Why didn't I have an electric car to drive, a century ago?? Why does it cost me more, to recycle? Why is there no carbon tax? Etc. etc. etc.
True, but... algore is fat.
Well, if you compare it to 1988, temperature is actually on it's way down!
...wait..what...that trick doesn't work anymore.....
It's a conspiracy!!! Send money now! Democrats are going to take away your GameBoys and put chips in your brain!
"except cold spells"
In fact even this is not true; we have had extraordinary cold spells every winter recently with arctic air flowing much farer South than it used to while the temperature at the North Pole was much higher.
Although we still have arctic outbreaks, the cold they bring is generally not of the record setting type. Just chilly.
In fact even this is not true; we have had extraordinary cold spells every winter recently with arctic air flowing much farer South than it used to...
I came here to make a similar comment. Not all parts of the world will experience this (in fact not many will), but, IIRC some type of polar-vortex strengthening effect might well mean certain select corners of our world -- the northeastern USA comes to mind -- could actually experience lengthier, more extreme cold snaps because of climate change. This is the case even though the artic air that plunges southwards will be somewhat warmer than years ago. Also, much of the Northeast could see increased snowfall, too, because an increase in winter precipitation.
polar vortex weakening 😉
You can get wild swings from year to year as well as week to week. All rain to huge snow piles. High's below zero, low's above 60. Etc.
Nobody -- left, right, or center -- wants to hear it, but there is only one way to get our heads out of our asses on this: a strongly rising carbon tax. We are hearing from the cynical pundits ad nauseam about all the ways pricing carbon is dead in Washington. Maybe so, and if that's true, then we are screwed. Throwing taxpayer money at utilities to deploy wind & solar ain't gonna work. Throwing taxpayer money at building a zillion EV charging stations ain't gonna do it.
As climate scientist James Hansen famously said decades ago, "As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest energy, someone somewhere will burn them."
So if a carbon tax is the solution, why haven't we done that yet? The answer is simple: because it would work.
Whether or not a Carbon tax would work depends on the details, but one thing is for sure: a capitalist system that fails to price in externalities will cause great harm. In this case that harm is great enough to threaten civilization.
Plenty of people on the left would happily see a carbon tax implemented. It's not going to happen because it's politically infeasible, not because it's not a good idea, conceptually. Kevin has written about this at great length: we need to start plowing a lot of money into mitigation technology research, because humanity is plainly not going to meet the necessary decarbonization benchmarks in a timely fashion.
I think you could say pretty much the same thing regarding the COVID/vaccine situation. Mitigation is the way to go on that too since getting people to vaccinate seems impossible.
COVID/Vaccination situation???
Vaccination IS mitigation. It doesn't eliminate the virus, it mitigates it, reducing the effect on the population of humans.
I would say vaccination is prevention, whereas monoclonal antibodies and other treatments are mitigation. I posted this link yesterday but perhaps you missed it:
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/covid-90-percent-of-patients-treated-with-new-israeli-drug-discharged-in-5-days-675961
So long as it was paid only by “the rich.”
Actually, what no one wants to hear is that catabolic collapse is coming no matter what changes we kinda make around the edges in 50 years.
I don't think catabolic means what you think it means:
ca·tab·o·lism | kəˈtabəˌlizəm |
noun Biology
the breakdown of complex molecules in living organisms to form simpler ones, together with the release of energy; destructive metabolism.
DERIVATIVES
catabolic | ˌkadəˈbôlik | adjective
Maybe try catastrophic or cataclysmic instead.
No, I know exactly what catabolic means. Societies breaking down over time as they can no longer refine as many resources, fund as many new projects, or maintain the existing infrastructure. Instead, resources, funding, and manpower goes to keeping more basic infrastructure running, such as the electric grid, food distribution, etc., while more advanced infrastructure and systems are allowed to deteriorate.
If you ever think you're about to nail someone against the wall with some rhetorical dictionary definition, try googling the word or phrase first. Catabolic collapse isn't some phrase I made up.
Well.aside from the left and the moderate-left being in favor of carbon taxes....
Your statement, to be accurate, should read "nobody on the right or moderate-right want to hear about a carbon tax."
Maybe I'm just insane but my feeling is that over the next 10 years we are finally going to start seeing greenhouse emissions go down as a green technologies mature and really start to take over. Twenty years from now you will rarely see a petroleum power vehicle on the road. Within 30 years I think carbon emissions for fuel production will be virtually eliminated. Will it all be too late to stave off a global catastrophe? I hope not but in spite of everything I am moderately hopeful.
I don't think you're insane, I just don't think you've looked at the numbers. China alone is officially planning a pretty sizable increase in carbon emissions over the remainder of the decade. This increase alone -- combined with India and many other developing countries -- will swamp anything rich countries manage. I think if we're very lucky we may reach peak carbon use by the 2040s.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid that Jasper is right. All the world-wide projections of CO2 emissions are terrible, no matter what we do in the west.
Not only are we going to have to greatly improve the technology for renewable and nuclear energy, but we're going to have to figure out some way to get it rolled out everywhere, esp. India and China.
The amount of time required to get that level of global cooperation tells me that aerosol dispersal as a bridging technology will also be necessary. So, we better figure out how to do it 🙂
I put better odds on this happening by 2032 than I do on our robot future; 2025.
3:00 pm on Monday: I just red this headline on the NY Times website. The irony is wonderful--it's a perfect reprise of the two articles here, on Covid and Climate:
"Despite the Dixie Fire’s Destruction, Some Residents Refuse to Leave"
Reminds me of your prediction that we'll make insufficient adjustments to deal with it until it's 2040, and we then resort to geo-engineering in haste to keep the planet from heating further.
I'm not quite that pessimistic, since I'm convinced that a pretty sizeable share of our electricity and vehicles will be carbon-neutral by the 2040s, and so our overall emissions will be lower. But I do think we won't rise to the challenge on this one.
For an individual climate change is a hard thing to understand
And the "whataboutism" is really rampant on BOTH sides
The government has done NOTHING in and of itself to show the country how important climate change is. The reason is that what they are proposing will hurt specific industries and/or segments of our economy.
Do we REALLY WANT to make an impact on climate change? We can only slow it down. It's happened before and will happen again. For for ordinary folks it doesn't appear to be a big deal.
The carbon tax appears to be a "rich corporations will be able to continue to pollute so long as they pay the tax" type thing. - and they will just pass along any costs to the consumers of their products.
People don't want to be inconvenienced (heck we HATE masks) and corporations will pay the bill rather than cut back on pollution - and there's NO singular event that will convince us that it's happening like is shown in the enviro disaster movies.
We are NOT serious, we've NEVER been serious and we won't be serious in the future
Catabolic collapse is coming to a planet near you. And by that, I mean earth, and it's actually started already.
Believing that we're going to replace oil and somehow maintain a semblance of our current society is a delusion that almost everyone has swallowed whole, because the obvious reality of our situation, if understood and accepted by even a large minority of humans, would result in a lot of violence in a scramble for the remaining resources.
"The government has done NOTHING ... The reason is ..."
The reason is 12 years of Republican Presidents so far this century, plus two decades of Bill Frist and Mitch McConnell, as well as a decade of Kevin ("He's SUCH a moron") McCarthy .
While the global surface temperature is 1.09°C above baseline of 1850-1900, the report notes that the land surface temperature is already at 1.59°C above baseline.
It also points out that even in the best-case scenario, we now are going to overshoot the 1.5°C global surface temperature (over baseline) target by 2050.
Ocean acidification, temperature rise, deoxygenation, and permafrost thaw are all irreversible on centennial+ timescales.
Top soil collapse, phosphorus depletion, insect collapse, the coming blue ocean event, sea life collapse, etc., etc., ad nauseam.
Yeah, I guess we're well into the 6th extinction event; life will never be the same.
The collapse is already baked in at this point. Corporations and the ultra wealthy have chosen to continue burning down the planet for themselves, and at this point they all know it and are just attempting to hoard as much remaining resources as they can. Our current economies are basically just a swan song to modern industrial society. If you're old enough to remember the times before cable television made entertainment 24/7, right now is like the national anthem being played at 2am right before the station goes off the air. Expect and prepare for catabolic collapse.
Do what you can to get yourself in a good place. It's 40+ years too late to prevent the coming collapse. Even if every single human being started living in huts and off onion grass tomorrow, climate change would continue on for decades. And that's just climate change. Ocean acidification, sea life collapse, phosphorus collapse, top soil collapse, micro biotic collapse, insect collapse, etc., etc., etc. are going to continue as we continue burning down the planet to keep GDP and growth above negative percentages.
I'm not saying go out and hoard toilet paper. But you can start preparing by getting physically fit. Stop eating garbage, stop poisoning yourself with alcohol, and exercise - strength and cardio. Get your finances in order. Meet your neighbors and let them know they can call you if they need help. Learn something useful, because during catabolic collapse you can expect supply chains to (continue) collapsing, so you're going to need to know how to do some stuff you can't just pay someone else to fix, and you might not be able to go online to have a mystery truck drop off something you need right on your doorstep.
NOTHING is being done, whatsoever, at all. This year will be the highest output of CO2 ever. Next year will be even more. The next year, more than that. While the ultra wealthy continue stockpiling resources in their bunkers and visiting current coastlines and cultures that are about to be catastrophically disrupted. This isn't doomsday porn. You aren't going to be able to ride this thing out by owning a gun and having a pickup truck, but that said, owning those things might give you a better position when roads are no longer repaired and you can't go to your local Walmart for hamburger and steak.
Or, we can pretend that oil isn't the basis of our current societies and economies, and that we can just windmill and solar panel our way through everything as if there isn't an actual limit to growth. Something something Solar Panels!...something something Sustainable Planet!
No, I'm not saying you should give up. I'm saying you should be cognizant of what trajectory we're on, the almost certainty of what is going to happen, and prepare for it. Or don't. It's your choice.
'Or, we can pretend that oil isn't the basis of our current societies and economies, and that we can just windmill and solar panel our way through everything as if there isn't an actual limit to growth. Something something Solar Panels!...something something Sustainable Planet!'
The Heritage Institute thanks you for your support. The potential energy in the Atlantic wind corridor alone could power the eastern seaboard. And, we've known about it for decades. I guess Dominion Power agrees with you: just acknowledge that we are hooked on oil & gas and go down with the planet.
Hey wait- didn't we used to be hooked on coal??
You're delusional if you think I'm some mouthpiece for the Heritage Foundation or some power company because I'm saying that we're not just going to solve all of our problems by attaching putting solar panels on wind turbines that are installed on top of solar panels.
There is more going on than just where we're going to get create power to run our air conditioners while we binge watch Storage Wars. I'm sorry if you're still in the dark about all the rest of humanity's problems that you're trying to attack me for some warped notion you have.
Try re-reading my comment if you actually care, in any way shape or form. Or, if you feel like yelling at me because the cognitive dissonance is too much, that's fine too.
There is more going on than just Climate Change. That is just ONE facet of many that is leading humanity, the species, to collapse. Just because a wind corridor can provide 20000000% of our energy needs once it gets built in 40 years doesn't change the fact that we're about out of top soil and arable land. Our insects and pollinators are going through a mass extinction. That our oceans that are acidifying and sea life being hunted to extinction. We're running out of phosphorus, and oil, needed for fertilizer to keep the remaining land we do have arable. Etc., etc., etc., never mind climate change.
And yes, we need oil. We use 100,000,000 barrels per day, and it's not all for energy plants and cars. Walk through your house and see which items don't have plastic in them. Now figure out what we're going to replace it with.
So, you can cling to the "we're just going to innovate the hell out of everything and be OK" if you'd like, but it's delusional at best.
Why has there been no Moonshot or Manhatten Project type effort? Or even a Covid vaccine type mission? Surely more R&D money can be thrown at the problem.
A largely symbolic gesture at this point perhaps, but one that would cause utter mental collapse among wingnuts, would be to nationalize coal mines and close them, as an emergency measure.
I think this would send an important message and could be an obvious and direct first step.
Dealing with the difficulties for the trivial percentage of the population affected may provide an effective blueprint for other disruptions and relocations that are certain to come up as the situation worsens.
The IPCC is irrelevant. They covered up evidence with the fossil fuels for 40 years. They should be disbanded.
One thing we can do that doesn't depend on a technical fix is to limit population. Currently we're at 8 billion with estimates of over 11 billion in 80 years - a 37% increase.
Freeze population levels and you cut that amount from forecast GGG emissions.
Anybody out there promoting such a course of action? I've yet to see it anywhere.
We should of years ago, denied the population growth globally. Just think if everyone in South America and Africa were exterminated. The Population in Asia reduced in half. The areas allowed to grow wild. Our problems would be over.........except for capitalist debt markets which would crash. The obsession with growth is a problem. Just think if the 2008 end game had been allowed to go through????? Talk about lowering emissions???
You haven't seen it anywhere because Republicans want more copies of themselves and Democrats aren't going to adopt a policy that will see them lose Senate and House seats the minute they say anything like it out loud and publicly.
Legislating that people cannot reproduce is only possible through dictatorship.
'The '90s were filled with pleas to individuals to act now to save the Earth. There was almost no limit to what average Americans could do, we were told: reduce, reuse, recycle; don't waste water; turn off your lights when you're not in the room; donate to save a panda; watch "Ferngully: The Last Rainforest."'
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/new-ipcc-climate-change-report-harrowing-hopeful-n1276389
Nothing made large corporations happier, than letting citizens think that WE are the problem....
Dude, in the 90's "we" were told there was no global warming. By the "experts" themselves.
CO2 Emissions per Capita,
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-per-capita/
The winner is Qatar!
US is number 17.